Macro Viewboard
ANALYSTDIRECTIONTOPICSUMMARYHORIZONFRESH
Growth
28 Views
Darius Dale REGIME NOWCAST · FUNNEL HIGHER Strong
Growth The market cycle is unlikely to peak until the second half of 2027 or first half of 2028, reflecting a long-running expansion. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 21h
Peter Schiff AUSTRIAN · GOLD HIGHER Moderate
Growth U.S. economy and labor market received an extremely upbeat assessment, indicating continued strength despite elevated inflation and accommodative monetary policy. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 1d
Keith McCullough QUAD REGIME · FUNNEL LOWER Strong
Growth US growth faces a Quad 4 regime, signaling a late-cycle downturn and slowing expansion rather than continued economic strength. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 1d
Liz Ann Sonders US EQUITY MACRO BULLISH Moderate
Growth Real final sales to private domestic purchasers accelerated to 4.9% in the third quarter from 4.6% in the second quarter. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 1d
Bob Elliott MACRO ALLOCATION LOWER Moderate
Growth Nominal GDP growth expectations face downside as recent growth data and AI-related company reports challenge the market’s assumed boom. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 1d
Mohamed El-Erian FED · POLICY ERROR HIGHER Moderate
Growth US GDP growth reached 3.4% in the third quarter, marking the strongest annual high in quarterly growth over the past year. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 2d
Steve Hanke MONEY SUPPLY LOWER Strong
Growth US GDP growth is expected to cool after a 3.4% annualized Q3, as funding for planned AI projects falls short and opposition to data centers grows. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 2d
Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOME HIGHER Moderate
Growth The economy appears to be moving at a faster pace, with the shift from “solid” to “strong” signaling stronger growth despite no rate hike. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 3d
Jeffrey Snider DOLLAR LIQUIDITY LOWER Moderate
Growth The economy will weaken as ordinary energy disruptions trigger extraordinary Fed reactions, tighter policy, and less margin for error. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 3d
Jurrien Timmer LONG-HORIZON MACRO LOWER Moderate
Growth Growth concerns are overshadowing inflation and rate concerns for now as pressure on AI stocks lowers the stock-bond correlation. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 4d
Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE LOWER Moderate
Growth Increasing government size and command-and-control effects are likely to reduce US living-standard gains as deficits and debt impose downstream economic costs. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 5d
Michael Kantrowitz HOPE CYCLE LOWER Moderate
Growth Growth could face pressure as higher oil prices and interest rates weigh on the economy after tailwinds that fueled the past 15 months begin fading. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 6d
Lance Roberts MACRO · POSITIONING LOWER Moderate
Growth Economic growth could suffer as external inflation shocks raise household costs without generating enough wage growth or stronger employment to sustain spending. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 7d
David Rosenberg RECESSION RISK LOWER Moderate
Growth Real GDP growth is barely above 2% despite an AI capital-spending boom, leaving the economy fragile rather than in a genuine boom. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 11d
Danielle DiMartino Booth LABOR INTERNALS LOWER Strong
Growth The real economy outside AI is weak, as manufacturing industrial production has flatlined since January 2020 and GDP growth relies entirely on AI. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 12d
David Woo RATES · FX · GEOPOLITICS LOWER Moderate
Growth A major AI-related incident may become the biggest downside risk to the US economy, with markets not pricing even a small probability of such an event. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 13d
Chris Ciovacco TREND · CYCLE HIGHER Moderate
Growth Economic growth could be considerably more favorable than during the 2022 bear market if inflation remains relatively contained and monetary policy avoids aggressive tightening. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 14d
Joseph Wang FED PLUMBING HIGHER Moderate
Growth US economy remains solid as banks report healthy loan growth and strong nominal consumer spending, although much of the spending increase reflects inflation. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 14d
David Keller TECHNICAL · FINAL BAR LOWER Moderate
Growth Economic growth optimism typically weakens when investors rotate from consumer discretionary spending exposure into defensive consumer staples, favoring necessities over wants. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 16d
Luke Gromen FISCAL DOMINANCE LOWER Strong
Growth A dollar surge above 101 on DXY would raise yields, weaken U.S. receipts, and drive the U.S. economy into a vicious downward cycle. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 23d
Charlie Bilello DATA · BREADTH LOWER Moderate
Growth The economy has become more vulnerable to lower growth if asset prices fall, as strong consumer spending increasingly depends on a $60 trillion stock and mutual-fund wealth base. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 26d
Cem Karsan DEALER GAMMA · VOL LOWER Moderate
Growth Growth is overstated, with the trailing measure historically catching down to the forward measure rather than the forward measure rising. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 29d
Andreas Steno Larsen GLOBAL MACRO HIGHER Moderate
Growth South Korean export data continues accelerating, signaling resilient global trade momentum rather than an imminent slowdown in US-relevant growth. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 40d
Julien Bittel LIQUIDITY · CYCLES HIGHER Moderate
Growth The US business cycle remains intact despite elevated fuel prices, with domestic energy production cushioning oil-shock pressure and avoiding a stagflationary contraction. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 46d
Mike Green PASSIVE FLOWS · STRUCTURE LOWER Strong
Growth Household financial stress is nearing a breaking point that could trigger consolidation into shared homes and a catastrophic reduction in consumer spending. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 51d
Ben Carlson ALLOCATION · BEHAVIOUR HIGHER Moderate
Growth The economy should remain resilient as historically low unemployment and a larger affluent population support sustained consumer spending. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 78d
Michael Howell GLOBAL LIQUIDITY HIGHER Strong
Growth The real economy is stronger and more robust than widely envisioned, with global expansion expected to continue well into 2027 and possibly early 2028. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 79d
Ed Yardeni EARNINGS · PRODUCTIVITY HIGHER Strong
Growth The economy is doing very well as consumers continue spending, with financially strong seniors helping younger households despite an affordability crisis. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 79dRecession Risk
14 Views Peter Schiff AUSTRIAN · GOLD HIGHER Strong
Recession Risk U.S. economy is teetering on the brink of recession despite political claims that it is booming and remains strong. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 1d Danielle DiMartino Booth LABOR INTERNALS HIGHER Strong
Recession Risk Recession risk is elevated because job creation has never been this low without the economy already being in recession. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 1d Darius Dale REGIME NOWCAST · FUNNEL HIGHER Strong
Recession Risk Secular bear-market risk is high enough to threaten another lifestyle-altering drawdown comparable to the Dot Com Bust or GFC. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 1d Keith McCullough QUAD REGIME · FUNNEL HIGHER Moderate
Recession Risk Quad 4 is expected to become evident across asset classes, resembling a cyclical peak like 2021 and signaling a more adverse market regime. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 5d Jeffrey Snider DOLLAR LIQUIDITY HIGHER Strong
Recession Risk Recession risk is rising as AI credit stress, weakening consumers, Triple-C deterioration, and restrictive financing conditions point toward a more serious downturn. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 9d Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE HIGHER Strong
Recession Risk Housing weakness, reflected in an unusually large backlog of approved but unstarted homes, points toward a broader economic downturn rather than AI. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 9d David Rosenberg RECESSION RISK HIGHER Strong
Recession Risk Recession risk is elevated for 2027 because a cyclical bear market, weak employment growth, and a low savings rate could sharply challenge the economy. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 11d Joseph Wang FED PLUMBING HIGHER Moderate
Recession Risk Recession risk could rise sharply if the AI buildout slows and equity markets tank, weakening a major contributor to US economic growth. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 14d Andreas Steno Larsen GLOBAL MACRO LOWER Strong
Recession Risk Recession risk in 2027 remains low based on inflation findings and their implications for the business and hiking cycles. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 18d Charlie Bilello DATA · BREADTH LOWER Moderate
Recession Risk US recession risk remains low after four years of yield-curve inversion without a recession, challenging the inversion’s historically reliable warning signal. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 29d Lance Roberts MACRO · POSITIONING HIGHER Moderate
Recession Risk Corporate debt refinancing at much higher rates will raise net interest costs, a pattern that typically precedes economic recessions once maturities roll over. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 31d Luke Gromen FISCAL DOMINANCE HIGHER Moderate
Recession Risk Delinquencies are unlikely to decline as higher rates strain borrowers, challenging the consensus narrative that the economy remains strong. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 32d Bob Elliott MACRO ALLOCATION HIGHER Moderate
Recession Risk Demand destruction will require either substantially higher prices, an equity-bubble burst, or sufficient tightening that produces real economic contraction. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 57d Ed Yardeni EARNINGS · PRODUCTIVITY LOWER Strong
Recession Risk Recession risk is expected to remain low through the end of the decade as the US economy continues to withstand repeated stress tests. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 80dInflation
32 Views Peter Schiff AUSTRIAN · GOLD HIGHER Strong
Inflation Inflation will not slow without the large rate hikes required, while policymakers are publicly discussing only smaller increases in rates. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 1d Michael Kantrowitz HOPE CYCLE HIGHER Moderate
Inflation The interest-rate, inflation, and Fed outlook has swung 180 degrees since January 1, 2026, contributing to higher risk premiums and compressed valuations. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 1d Liz Ann Sonders US EQUITY MACRO HIGHER Moderate
Inflation Supercore CPI and PCE rose in September, moving further from the Federal Reserve’s 2% inflation target rather than toward it. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 1d Lance Roberts MACRO · POSITIONING HIGHER Strong
Inflation Inflation remains a problem after hotter-than-expected CPI and PPI readings, persistent pricing pressure, and elevated oil prices, with no evidence it has peaked. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 2d Steve Hanke MONEY SUPPLY HIGHER Strong
Inflation Grocery prices have surged 28% since 2020, with ground beef up 67% and coffee up 108%, leaving food affordability strained. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 2d Mohamed El-Erian FED · POLICY ERROR HIGHER Strong
Inflation Inflation has exceeded target for more than five years and demands a policy response, though fiscal consolidation is better suited than monetary policy alone. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 3d Jeffrey Snider DOLLAR LIQUIDITY LOWER Strong
Inflation Real inflation remains absent despite diesel and gasoline feeding into CPI, leaving markets focused on the Fed's anticipated overreaction. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 3d Bob Elliott MACRO ALLOCATION HIGHER Moderate
Inflation Developed-economy headline inflation is running at 3–4%, while central banks are responding far more slowly than in past cycles. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 3d Keith McCullough QUAD REGIME · FUNNEL HIGHER Moderate
Inflation Inflation is accelerating, as indicated by the continuing long U.S. dollar signal and a hawkish Federal Reserve policy backdrop. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 3d Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOME HIGHER Moderate
Inflation Gas prices have never been this high in the autumn on a seasonal comparison dating back to 2004, adding upward pressure to inflation. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 4d Charlie Bilello DATA · BREADTH HIGHER Moderate
Inflation US prices are rising faster than wages for the first time since 2023, reducing American workers’ real purchasing power. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 5d Jurrien Timmer LONG-HORIZON MACRO HIGHER Moderate
Inflation Structural inflation remains sticky and is contributing to this year's rise in bond yields alongside mounting fiscal risk. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 9d Darius Dale REGIME NOWCAST · FUNNEL HIGHER Strong
Inflation Inflation remains sticky as average annual employer family health plan costs reached $28,000 in 2026, rising 5% year-over-year while worker contributions increased 9%. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 9d Danielle DiMartino Booth LABOR INTERNALS LOWER Strong
Inflation Inflation pressures are narrowing, with only 38% of CPI components posting annualized price increases of 3% or more over six months. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 12d Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE HIGHER Moderate
Inflation Core inflation is more likely to rise by 0.5% than fall by 0.5% over the next 12 months under today’s money-supply and payroll-growth conditions. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 13d
Jason Shapiro POSITIONING · COT HIGHER Moderate
Inflation Inflation showed renewed strength after CPI came in stronger, though Treasury weakness is more likely driven by bond supply and demand than inflation. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 14d Chris Ciovacco TREND · CYCLE LOWER Moderate
Inflation Inflation lacks a 2022-style shock, with five-year breakevens at 2.37% versus roughly 3.5% in 2022, potentially avoiding prolonged aggressive tightening. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 14d
Peter Reznicek MARKET PROFILE · ES HIGHER Moderate
Inflation September CPI and core CPI both ticked higher, while PPI rose to 1.5% from 0.5%, keeping rates elevated. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 14d Joseph Wang FED PLUMBING HIGHER Strong
Inflation PCE inflation is trending higher as rising energy costs broaden into non-energy baskets, leaving inflation data moving in the wrong direction. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 14d Andreas Steno Larsen GLOBAL MACRO LOWER Moderate
Inflation Core CPI miss drivers are mostly absent from tomorrow’s PPI, leaving the producer-price report likely to come in softer. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 17d Luke Gromen FISCAL DOMINANCE HIGHER Strong
Inflation War creates the strongest form of inflationary pressure, driving prices persistently higher across the broader economy over time. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 17d
Nick Timiraos FED REPORTER · ANCHOR HIGHER Strong
Inflation September core CPI inflation was broadly stronger, with core goods posting the largest monthly gain in a year and core services excluding housing accelerating to 4.6% annualized. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 17d Cem Karsan DEALER GAMMA · VOL HIGHER Moderate
Inflation Inflation is likely to rise within an eventual productivity-driven boom, even if markets first experience a meaningful decline. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 23d David Rosenberg RECESSION RISK LOWER Strong
Inflation Inflation is unlikely to become a major sustained problem because wage growth is decelerating and energy prices are expected to peak. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 30d Ben Carlson ALLOCATION · BEHAVIOUR HIGHER Moderate
Inflation Inflation has risen from 2.4% before the war to 3.4% now, alongside higher Treasury yields, mortgage rates, oil, and gasoline prices. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 31d
Tom Lee US EQUITY STRATEGY LOWER Strong
Inflation Inflation data should decline over the next six months as PCE methodology changes, tariff effects fade, and oil, housing, and other inputs stop adding pressure. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 36d
Peter Boockvar DATA REACTION LOWER Moderate
Inflation TIPS inflation expectations fell after the FOMC rate increase, with two-, five-, and 10-year breakevens declining by 8, 6, and 5 basis points. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 44d
Mark Newton INSTITUTIONAL TECHNICALS LOWER Moderate
Inflation Inflation is viewed as transitory, while supply-driven oil prices are expected to decline next year and reduce price pressures. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 46d David Keller TECHNICAL · FINAL BAR HIGHER Moderate
Inflation Higher crude oil prices are expected to feed through to broader prices after a lag, becoming more visible as consumers face rising energy and shipping costs. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 50d David Woo RATES · FX · GEOPOLITICS HIGHER Strong
Inflation Inflation is expected to rise during September as converging political, geopolitical, and monetary risks create a worsening market environment. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 50d Michael Howell GLOBAL LIQUIDITY HIGHER Moderate
Inflation US nominal GDP acceleration driven by fiscal spending, AI investment, deglobalization, and inventory building implies both stronger activity growth and higher inflation. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 79d Ed Yardeni EARNINGS · PRODUCTIVITY HIGHER Moderate
Inflation Inflation faces short-run upward pressure from tariffs, volatile energy prices, and Middle East supply-chain disruptions despite disinflationary unit labor costs. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 81dLabor
21 Views Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE HIGHER Strong
LABOR Construction and manufacturing jobs are growing again, up 0.7% over the last 12 months after briefly dipping below zero rather than signaling contraction. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 12h Bob Elliott MACRO ALLOCATION LOWER Moderate
LABOR Employment Cost Index wage data at cycle lows suggest limited labor-market tightness and little positive momentum despite the unemployment rate. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 1d Charlie Bilello DATA · BREADTH HIGHER Strong
LABOR US jobless claims, adjusted for population growth, have reached their lowest level on record, signaling an exceptionally strong labor market. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 2d Lance Roberts MACRO · POSITIONING LOWER Strong
LABOR The labor market is materially weaker than headline data suggest, with companies neither firing aggressively nor hiring, leaving conditions frozen and vulnerable to deterioration. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 2d Luke Gromen FISCAL DOMINANCE LOWER Moderate
LABOR Midwest employment is falling year over year, signaling a weakening labor market despite a tightening vote from Cleveland Fed President Hammack. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 2d Danielle DiMartino Booth LABOR INTERNALS LOWER Moderate
LABOR Real incomes net of transfers and real disposable income have both fallen to a 0.0% three-month average after declining in September, signaling weaker household labor-market support. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 2d Peter Schiff AUSTRIAN · GOLD LOWER Strong
LABOR U.S. job creation has been slower in Trump’s first two years than in Biden’s final two, signaling a weaker labor market. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 3d Liz Ann Sonders US EQUITY MACRO HIGHER Moderate
LABOR The Conference Board labor differential rose to 5.3% in October, nearly 2.5 percentage points above the previous month, signaling a stronger labor market. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 4d Jeffrey Snider DOLLAR LIQUIDITY LOWER Strong
LABOR Jobs will weaken after energy-shock stockpiling fades, as squeezed margins prompt firms to cut hours rather than expand hiring amid excess inventories. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 4d Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOME HIGHER Moderate
LABOR The labor market remains healthy because monthly job gains exceed population-driven break-even needs, while unemployment stays near 4.1% to 4.2%. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 11d David Rosenberg RECESSION RISK LOWER Strong
LABOR Employment growth near 0% reflects a weak labor market, where the persistent absence of hiring poses the central economic overhang. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 11d Joseph Wang FED PLUMBING HIGHER Moderate
LABOR Labor market remains sound, supporting resilient consumer spending as workers continue earning wages, sustaining household income and purchasing power across the economy. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 14d Darius Dale REGIME NOWCAST · FUNNEL LOWER Moderate
LABOR Shelter CPI supports a cooling labor backdrop, pointing to softer labor-market conditions despite broader evidence of sticky inflation. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 17d
Brent Johnson DOLLAR MILKSHAKE LOWER Moderate
LABOR AI will create short-term unemployment problems before its longer-term benefits emerge, potentially prompting universal basic income or expanded welfare. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 23d Michael Kantrowitz HOPE CYCLE HIGHER Moderate
LABOR The labor market bottomed in September 2025, signaling a transition away from early-business-cycle conditions despite ongoing economic expansion. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 24d Cem Karsan DEALER GAMMA · VOL LOWER Strong
LABOR AI-driven job losses in finance and technology are likely to intensify next year and spread into other industries, weakening the labor market. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 28d Andreas Steno Larsen GLOBAL MACRO LOWER Strong
LABOR Payroll growth, wage gains, and unemployment data indicate a softer labor market, though higher participation rather than layoffs partly drove unemployment higher. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 29d Mohamed El-Erian FED · POLICY ERROR LOWER Strong
LABOR US labor conditions weakened in September as payroll growth slowed to 29,000, unemployment rose to 4.2%, earnings growth moderated, and prior months were revised lower. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 29d Keith McCullough QUAD REGIME · FUNNEL HIGHER Moderate
LABOR US job gains accelerated in September as business growth surged to its fastest pace in more than five years. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 38d Steve Hanke MONEY SUPPLY LOWER Moderate
LABOR U.S. August job numbers were not as strong as headline figures suggested after examining the details beneath the surface. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 55d Ben Carlson ALLOCATION · BEHAVIOUR HIGHER Moderate
LABOR The labor market remains resilient, with unemployment falling from 4.5% in November to 4.1% in August and average monthly job gains of 80,000 in 2026. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 57dHousing
22 Views Steve Hanke MONEY SUPPLY LOWER Strong
Housing US tariffs and the war on Iran have added roughly $8,200 to new-home construction costs, resulting in fewer new homes. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 1h Liz Ann Sonders US EQUITY MACRO HIGHER Weak
Housing Mortgage applications rose 3.4% in the week ended October 23, the first increase in two months, as the 30-year fixed mortgage rate reached a four-week low of 7.37%. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 3d Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE LOWER Weak
Housing New-home supply is historically elevated, but the unusually low share of completed homes limits the downside implications for housing compared with 2009. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 4d Danielle DiMartino Booth LABOR INTERNALS HIGHER Moderate
Housing A Fed rate hike could bring sellers back to market, thaw housing supply, and allow affordability to begin returning for first-time homebuyers. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 5d Charlie Bilello DATA · BREADTH LOWER Strong
Housing US homebuilder confidence has plunged to its lowest level since 2012 as unaffordable newly built homes drive record price cuts and widespread incentives. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 5d
JC Parets INTERMARKET · RS HIGHER Strong
Housing Housing is entering a major boom that is just getting started, pointing to substantially higher home prices over a longer-term horizon. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 8d Lance Roberts MACRO · POSITIONING LOWER Moderate
Housing Housing costs and first-time buyer expectations will revert toward historical norms, gradually realigning the housing market over time. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 8d Jeffrey Snider DOLLAR LIQUIDITY LOWER Strong
Housing Pending home sales have fallen to their lowest recorded level, and record-low contracts signal completed housing transactions will deteriorate further. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 11d Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOME HIGHER Moderate
Housing Home prices remain near all-time highs despite elevated mortgage rates, leaving the housing market fine for now and requiring more supply for affordability. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 11d Darius Dale REGIME NOWCAST · FUNNEL LOWER Strong
Housing The US housing market is unlikely to recover because persistent upward pressure on rates remains a defining feature of the current regime. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 11d Peter Schiff AUSTRIAN · GOLD LOWER Strong
Housing Home prices will fall as rising mortgage rates constrain buyer affordability and approvals, eroding homeowner equity once lower sales prices reset the market. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 11d David Rosenberg RECESSION RISK LOWER Moderate
Housing Residential construction is negative, contrasting with the strong housing backdrop of the late 1990s and underscoring current economic fragility. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 11d Peter Boockvar DATA REACTION LOWER Strong
Housing U.S. housing market remains stuck in the mud, with homebuilder sentiment at its lowest level in 14 years. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 12d Luke Gromen FISCAL DOMINANCE HIGHER Moderate
Housing US single-family home prices have risen 33% despite mortgage rates tripling, signaling that currency debasement rather than housing fundamentals is driving nominal prices. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 19d Mike Green PASSIVE FLOWS · STRUCTURE LOWER Strong
Housing Mortgage purchase applications have fallen to 1.3 per thousand people aged 25–54, roughly 60% below 2021 and nearly 75% below 2006. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 24d
Peter Brandt CLASSICAL CHARTING LOWER Strong
Housing Housing costs are ridiculous today, while interest rates on 30-year money above 700 basis points remain historically normal and affordable. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 36d Mohamed El-Erian FED · POLICY ERROR LOWER Moderate
Housing Rich-world housing markets are vulnerable to higher interest rates because of mortgage structures, household finances, and limited supply. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 37d Ben Carlson ALLOCATION · BEHAVIOUR LOWER Strong
Housing The housing market faces further damage from 7.3% mortgage rates, which intensify affordability pressure and suppress housing activity. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 37d Joseph Wang FED PLUMBING LOWER Moderate
Housing The housing market is deteriorating further as mortgage rates above 7% weaken even high-end real estate, leaving the bottom not yet in. LEVELS · RESISTANCE 7
Month 45d Keith McCullough QUAD REGIME · FUNNEL LOWER Strong
Housing Housing is a short position, reflecting a bearish view that home prices and broader housing-market conditions will weaken over the medium-term path. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 59d Bob Elliott MACRO ALLOCATION LOWER Moderate
Housing Housing prices remain elevated despite weak fundamentals, but worsening housing-market conditions threaten a cooling trend and a key support for consumer spending. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 62d Ed Yardeni EARNINGS · PRODUCTIVITY HIGHER Moderate
Housing Home prices are rising as baby boomers retain their houses rather than downsizing, constraining housing supply amid persistent affordability pressure for younger households. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 81dFed Policy
35 Views Peter Schiff AUSTRIAN · GOLD TIGHTER Moderate
Fed Policy Fed policy is accommodative despite inflation remaining too high, with further rate hikes implied as the appropriate response. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 1d Peter Boockvar DATA REACTION EASIER Strong
Fed Policy Fed likely will not raise rates in December if technology stocks continue to falter, as the US economy and equity market remain heavily reliant on tech. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 1d Lance Roberts MACRO · POSITIONING TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy The Fed is likely to raise rates again in December because inflation remains problematic despite its decision to pause after only six weeks. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 2d Tom Lee US EQUITY STRATEGY EASIER Strong
Fed Policy Fed policy appears dovish because inflation expectations are holding, oil and rates are diverging, and AI capex growth is not necessarily inflationary. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 2d Jurrien Timmer LONG-HORIZON MACRO TIGHTER Moderate
Fed Policy The SOFR curve still prices two additional Fed rate hikes in the coming months despite expectations for a hike this week nearly disappearing. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 3d Liz Ann Sonders US EQUITY MACRO TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy Fed futures imply an 86% probability of a second rate hike at next month’s meeting, pointing to further near-term policy tightening. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 3d Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOME TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy Fed voting patterns point toward continued tightening, with four dissenting votes for hikes since July and a unanimous September rate increase. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 3d Jeffrey Snider DOLLAR LIQUIDITY TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy Fed policy will clamp down harder in response to energy-driven CPI disruptions despite an absence of real inflation and weakening economic conditions. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 3d Keith McCullough QUAD REGIME · FUNNEL TIGHTER Moderate
Fed Policy Federal Reserve policy remains hawkish, alongside accelerating inflation and a continuing long U.S. dollar signal across current market conditions. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 3d Danielle DiMartino Booth LABOR INTERNALS EASIER Moderate
Fed Policy December rate-hike expectations are overpricing the likelihood of tighter Federal Reserve policy, implying an easier policy outcome than rates traders currently discount. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 4d Charlie Bilello DATA · BREADTH TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy Fed held interest rates at 3.75–4.00% while signaling another rate hike in December, pointing to tighter policy ahead. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 4d Mohamed El-Erian FED · POLICY ERROR TIGHTER Moderate
Fed Policy Fed futures price roughly a 10% probability of an October rate hike and an approximately 80% probability of a December hike. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 4d Darius Dale REGIME NOWCAST · FUNNEL TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy Bank of Japan is likely to deliver fewer than the three rate hikes priced over the next 12 months as dovish board appointments continue. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 8d Luke Gromen FISCAL DOMINANCE EASIER Moderate
Fed Policy More aggressive policy action will be needed to cap rising rates, implying eventual intervention to support bond markets. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 9d David Rosenberg RECESSION RISK TIGHTER Moderate
Fed Policy The Fed could tighten into an inverted yield curve if it delivers the four rate hikes priced into fed funds futures, raising economic fragility. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 11d Chris Ciovacco TREND · CYCLE EASIER Moderate
Fed Policy Fed policy could remain considerably more favorable than during the 2022 bear market if inflation stays relatively contained and avoids a comparable shock. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 14d Joseph Wang FED PLUMBING TIGHTER Moderate
Fed Policy Fed officials are likely to skip an October hike but raise rates in December, as inflation remains too high despite tighter financial conditions. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 14d Mike Green PASSIVE FLOWS · STRUCTURE EASIER Moderate
Fed Policy Interest rates are non-restrictive, indicating monetary policy remains easier than conditions typically associated with meaningful economic or financial restraint. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 17d Andreas Steno Larsen GLOBAL MACRO EASIER Moderate
Fed Policy The next hiking cycle is likely to be short-lived, following a CPI report nowcast that leans slightly soft on core inflation and in line on headline. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 17d Brent Johnson DOLLAR MILKSHAKE TIGHTER Moderate
Fed Policy Fed policy has turned tighter as Warsh raised rates to establish early credibility while markets demand higher rates. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 23d Peter Reznicek MARKET PROFILE · ES EASIER Moderate
Fed Policy The Fed will likely restart quantitative easing in 2027 because elevated bond rates leave policymakers with little choice but to pull yields back. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 28d Nick Timiraos FED REPORTER · ANCHOR EASIER Moderate
Fed Policy Federal Reserve leaders are casting doubt on an October rate hike, signaling officials may want more time to assess incoming data and inflation trends. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 30d Bob Elliott MACRO ALLOCATION TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy Eurozone inflation exceeding expectations makes a material hiking cycle almost assured, rather than the single additional hike markets had hoped for. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 31d Jason Shapiro POSITIONING · COT EASIER Moderate
Fed Policy Fed intervention to support bonds is likely before the election if rates continue rising at their current pace, though market rejection would be dangerous. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 33d Julien Bittel LIQUIDITY · CYCLES EASIER Moderate
Fed Policy Fed policy should pause and then reverse toward easing if lower crude cools headline inflation and gives Warsh cover after demonstrating bond-market credibility. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 36d Ben Carlson ALLOCATION · BEHAVIOUR TIGHTER Moderate
Fed Policy The Fed will probably keep hiking rates, raising consumer borrowing costs without meaningfully lowering inflation or slowing AI hyperscaler spending. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 38d Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE EASIER Strong
Fed Policy Real Fed funds rates have averaged progressively lower across expansions and remained negative since 2008, with the current expansion averaging negative 0.8% since 2020. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 40d David Keller TECHNICAL · FINAL BAR TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy Fed policy is likely to remain tighter, with additional rate increases possible over the next 6 to 12 months as two-year yields continue rising. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 40d Mark Newton INSTITUTIONAL TECHNICALS TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy The Fed is expected to deliver a 25-basis-point rate hike tomorrow, though the move is likely one and done rather than three hikes priced by the curve. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 46d
Brent Kochuba GAMMA · 0DTE · FUNNEL TIGHTER Moderate
Fed Policy FOMC rate hike is priced, but the dot plot remains unpriced and creates outlier risk into the meeting. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 46d Cem Karsan DEALER GAMMA · VOL EASIER Strong
Fed Policy Fed policy should become more dovish as inflation data and forecasts decline, while a hike would represent an incoherent reaction function. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 46d Michael Kantrowitz HOPE CYCLE TIGHTER Moderate
Fed Policy Fed policy remains hawkish as higher rates, rising oil, and tightening financial conditions continue pressuring S&P 500 valuation multiples. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 50d David Woo RATES · FX · GEOPOLITICS TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy Oil spike kills monetary easing expectations rapidly, creating a tail-risk transmission that pressures consumers, earnings, and the AI trade. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 53d Michael Howell GLOBAL LIQUIDITY HIGHER Strong
Fed Policy US policy rates are likely to rise within months as elevated two-year Treasury yields signal tightening and strong nominal growth pushes market rates higher. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 79d Ed Yardeni EARNINGS · PRODUCTIVITY EASIER Moderate
Fed Policy The Fed should deliver a quarter-point move soon because it would restore credibility while doing less harm to the economy than continued inaction. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 80dLiquidity
18 Views Peter Schiff AUSTRIAN · GOLD LOWER Strong
Liquidity Short-term liquidity problems are likely to show up in broader markets as soon as next week, despite gold and silver’s sharp declines creating an unexpected opportunity to add exposure. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 1d Lance Roberts MACRO · POSITIONING HIGHER Moderate
Liquidity Liquidity is expected to increase into year-end, contributing to a markedly better market outlook alongside returning buybacks and end-of-year positioning. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 1d Joseph Wang FED PLUMBING EASIER Moderate
Liquidity Financial conditions are not tight, indicating monetary and market conditions remain easier than a restrictive policy stance would imply. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 3d Charlie Bilello DATA · BREADTH HIGHER Strong
Liquidity US money supply grew 5.7% over the last year, the largest year-over-year increase since May 2022, signaling money printing has resumed. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 3d Cem Karsan DEALER GAMMA · VOL HIGHER Strong
Liquidity US quantitative easing is set to increase liquidity as policy moves toward an open-ended expansion of the Federal Reserve balance sheet. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 9d Darius Dale REGIME NOWCAST · FUNNEL LOWER Moderate
Liquidity Global liquidity faces adverse coincident and prospective implications as French and Italian 10-year yield spreads over German Bunds widen sharply. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 9d Luke Gromen FISCAL DOMINANCE LOWER Moderate
Liquidity Liquidity is tightening, though not yet in a full squeeze, as the dollar, bond volatility, and rates have risen. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 9d Jeffrey Snider DOLLAR LIQUIDITY LOWER Strong
Liquidity Credit markets are in a cyclical downswing as lenders become more risk-averse, making capital less elastic and reducing support for financial markets. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 18d Steve Hanke MONEY SUPPLY HIGHER Strong
Liquidity Money supply continues to surge as booming, interest-rate-insensitive AI spending persists despite the Federal Reserve raising fed funds rates. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 18d Bob Elliott MACRO ALLOCATION LOWER Strong
Liquidity Fiscal and monetary easing that supported markets over recent years is set to reverse, requiring more unorthodox measures for any renewed stimulus. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 18d Jurrien Timmer LONG-HORIZON MACRO TIGHTER Moderate
Liquidity Financial conditions are tightening as the investment cycle shifts from earnings amplified by easy conditions toward earnings constrained by tightening conditions. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 22d Brent Johnson DOLLAR MILKSHAKE HIGHER Weak
Liquidity A future remonetization of gold certificates could create a Treasury windfall and expand the money supply, though it is not expected anytime soon. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 23d Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOME HIGHER Moderate
Liquidity Funding-market stability requires larger underlying funding markets so the Fed can shrink its balance sheet without destabilizing Treasury basis trades. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 29d Julien Bittel LIQUIDITY · CYCLES HIGHER Strong
Liquidity Liquidity remains a strategic necessity as Washington, Beijing, banks and hyperscalers finance an AI race neither side is prepared to slow. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 29d Andreas Steno Larsen GLOBAL MACRO LOWER Moderate
Liquidity AI agents could trigger a bank run by moving household cash into 3–5% accounts, stripping banks of cheap deposits and reducing available liquidity. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 34d Danielle DiMartino Booth LABOR INTERNALS LOWER Strong
Liquidity Credit conditions are tightening as banks absorb commercial real estate losses, clamp down on credit card lending standards, and restrict consumer lending. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 37d Mark Newton INSTITUTIONAL TECHNICALS HIGHER Moderate
Liquidity Treasury buyback expansion has provided a cushion to long-dated Treasuries and fueled liquidity optimism across commodities, precious metals and crypto. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 71d Michael Howell GLOBAL LIQUIDITY LOWER Strong
Liquidity Global liquidity growth has peaked and is rolling over, with the cycle unlikely to bottom before mid-to-late 2027 despite elevated absolute liquidity levels. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 79dFiscal & Treasury
30 Views Steve Hanke MONEY SUPPLY HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury Iranian war costs, including repairs to damaged U.S. bases, will total a staggering $1 trillion once all expenses are counted. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 3h Peter Schiff AUSTRIAN · GOLD HIGHER Moderate
Fiscal & Treasury A Democratic sweep would bring greater fiscal recklessness than Republican control, increasing deficits and Treasury issuance over the coming year. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 1d Luke Gromen FISCAL DOMINANCE HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury Federal debt levels are positioned to rise as labor-force displacement since China’s WTO entry supports UBI and increases fiscal pressures. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 3d Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury US deficits are likely to remain large, with government borrowing crowding out other borrowers even as productive AI investment continues receiving funding. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 5d Jurrien Timmer LONG-HORIZON MACRO HIGHER Moderate
Fiscal & Treasury Mounting fiscal risk is contributing to this year's rise in bond yields, alongside sticky structural inflation and shifting growth expectations. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 9d Charlie Bilello DATA · BREADTH HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury US government spending has risen 92% over the last decade versus a 65% increase in tax revenue, reinforcing persistent spending beyond revenues. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 10d Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOME HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury Federal deficits near 6% of GDP and peacetime spending near historic extremes are the central problem keeping interest rates elevated. LEVELS · TARGET 6
Year 11d
Lyn Alden FISCAL · LIQUIDITY · BITCOIN HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury Structural fiscal deficits are already imposing costs through higher rates, while supporting record-high stock prices despite record-low consumer sentiment. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 12d Darius Dale REGIME NOWCAST · FUNNEL HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury Federal budget deficit is widening as expenditures outpace revenue growth, with the deficit rising $217 billion year over year to 6.1% of GDP. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 12d Jason Shapiro POSITIONING · COT HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury Treasury borrowing needs will keep rising as higher rates worsen government financing costs, reinforcing a self-perpetuating debt and issuance cycle. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 14d Mohamed El-Erian FED · POLICY ERROR HIGHER Moderate
Fiscal & Treasury A protracted budget deficit of around 6% plus refinancing maturing debt at higher rates will increase fiscal pressure and Treasury issuance. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 14d Lance Roberts MACRO · POSITIONING HIGHER Moderate
Fiscal & Treasury Fiscal deficits, debt burdens, and demographic pressures will likely require much higher taxes over time, extending beyond high-income households. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 16d Andreas Steno Larsen GLOBAL MACRO HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury The current administration has abandoned budget balance and expects growth to resolve the fiscal shortfall, an assumption characterized as highly debatable. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 17d David Rosenberg RECESSION RISK LOWER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury Fiscal stimulus should end after the midterms as divided government creates gridlock, reducing the impulse to aggregate demand. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 30d Chris Ciovacco TREND · CYCLE HIGHER Moderate
Fiscal & Treasury Heavy Treasury issuance, rising debt, fiscal uncertainty, and greater duration risk can lift term premium independently of Fed policy. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 31d Nick Timiraos FED REPORTER · ANCHOR HIGHER Moderate
Fiscal & Treasury Federal fiscal restraint has not arrived, leaving deficits elevated as Washington's agenda adds to longer-term inflation and interest-rate pressures. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 33d Joseph Wang FED PLUMBING HIGHER Moderate
Fiscal & Treasury Treasury issuance is not crowding out markets because investor balance sheets can expand through leverage to absorb supply without more negative swap spreads. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 36d Peter Boockvar DATA REACTION HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury US Treasury financing costs will rise by another $18 billion over 12 months after the 25-basis-point increase, amid continued reliance on short-term issuance. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 44d Danielle DiMartino Booth LABOR INTERNALS HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury U.S. borrowing costs will rise as the government relies heavily on Treasury bills, leaving its financing directly exposed to Federal Reserve policy. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 44d Michael Kantrowitz HOPE CYCLE HIGHER Weak
Fiscal & Treasury The deficit is no longer steering markets and is instead along for the ride, relegated to the trunk. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 46d Keith McCullough QUAD REGIME · FUNNEL HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury US taxpayer-funded $1 trillion deficit spending would materially expand fiscal outlays, including proposed payments of $5,000 per American. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 51d Mike Green PASSIVE FLOWS · STRUCTURE HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury US fiscal stress remains a serious and dangerous situation, while Treasury debt-management actions can only affect government interest costs rather than taxes or spending. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 52d Cem Karsan DEALER GAMMA · VOL LOWER Moderate
Fiscal & Treasury Fiscal discipline messaging around a prospective Warsh policy shift is an elaborate good-cop, bad-cop routine rather than a genuine commitment to austerity. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 65d Liz Ann Sonders US EQUITY MACRO HIGHER Moderate
Fiscal & Treasury Fiscal-policy concerns have revived as Treasury ramps up buybacks of long-dated government debt, contributing to the return of the debasement trade. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 68d David Woo RATES · FX · GEOPOLITICS HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury America’s $2T+ deficit, alongside foreign Treasury selling and AI investment, is draining savings and increasing Treasury supply pressure. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 72d Ben Carlson ALLOCATION · BEHAVIOUR LOWER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury US government debt is unlikely to trigger a crisis despite continued spending, reserve-currency status, and persistent Treasury demand. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 73d Jeffrey Snider DOLLAR LIQUIDITY HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury US debt has likely crossed $40 trillion and continues rising, while deficit-driven spending and interest costs remain the larger problem than Treasury market rates. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 73d Tom Lee US EQUITY STRATEGY HIGHER Moderate
Fiscal & Treasury The deficit is growing despite a booming economy, leaving fiscal imbalances unusually large even as economic expansion remains strong. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 74d Ed Yardeni EARNINGS · PRODUCTIVITY HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury Government debt will leave younger generations with a substantial fiscal burden as baby boomers retire, an intergenerational transfer rather than a temporary imbalance. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 79d Michael Howell GLOBAL LIQUIDITY HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury Treasury bill funding could rise toward 30% of outstanding US federal debt, materially increasing short-dated issuance from already elevated levels. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 79d