Macro Viewboard
ANALYSTDIRECTIONTOPICSUMMARYHORIZONFRESH
Growth
23 Views
Darius Dale REGIME NOWCAST · FUNNEL HIGHER Strong
Growth U.S. growth should remain resilient in a booming, run-it-hot economy, consistent with a long-standing position rather than a fresh call. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 3h
Danielle DiMartino Booth LABOR INTERNALS LOWER Strong
Growth Consumer spending is increasingly supported by price increases rather than unit sales, while airline unit sales have stepped down sharply and lower-income demand weakens. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 5h
Liz Ann Sonders US EQUITY MACRO HIGHER Moderate
Growth Third-quarter 2026 real GDP estimate has risen to 5.1% from 4.4%, partly reflecting stronger retail sales in the latest GDPNow model reading. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 6h
Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOME HIGHER Moderate
Growth The U.S. economy is booming after strong August retail sales pushed Atlanta Fed GDPNow to 5.1% for the third quarter of 2026. LEVELS · TARGET 5.1
Month 6h
Lance Roberts MACRO · POSITIONING LOWER Moderate
Growth Higher short-term rates could squeeze household cash flow and consumption, turning a Fed hike into a policy mistake that weakens the economy. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 6h
Bob Elliott MACRO ALLOCATION HIGHER Strong
Growth Official data showed extraordinarily strong growth, well above expectations and similar private-sector data, versus consensus expectations of 0.4%. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 9h
Jeffrey Snider DOLLAR LIQUIDITY LOWER Strong
Growth Global growth has rolled into a downturn after years of credit excess, exposing investments priced on assumptions of an economic recovery. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 1d
Julien Bittel LIQUIDITY · CYCLES HIGHER Moderate
Growth The US business cycle remains intact despite elevated fuel prices, with domestic energy production cushioning oil-shock pressure and avoiding a stagflationary contraction. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 1d
Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE HIGHER Strong
Growth The economy has accelerating cyclical momentum and can likely handle higher interest rates in the short term without derailing current expansion. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 2d
Luke Gromen FISCAL DOMINANCE LOWER Strong
Growth A strategy of higher inflation and economic disruption to force rates lower would weaken the U.S. economy before sufficient Fed buying prevents a severe outcome. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 2d
Charlie Bilello DATA · BREADTH LOWER Moderate
Growth US economic growth will increasingly depend on productivity gains as 25-to-64 population growth slows to 0.3% annually over the next decade. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 3d
Peter Schiff AUSTRIAN · GOLD LOWER Moderate
Growth Consumer sentiment sank to 47.8 in September from 51.7 in August, signaling a worsening outlook for household confidence and economic growth. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 5d
Mike Green PASSIVE FLOWS · STRUCTURE LOWER Strong
Growth Household financial stress is nearing a breaking point that could trigger consolidation into shared homes and a catastrophic reduction in consumer spending. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 6d
Chris Ciovacco TREND · CYCLE HIGHER Moderate
Growth The economy appears strong, with rising interest rates potentially reflecting greater demand for capital rather than a destabilizing deterioration in underlying conditions. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 11d
Steve Hanke MONEY SUPPLY HIGHER Strong
Growth U.S. nominal GDP growth should accelerate because Divisia M4 money supply is surging at a 7.9% annual rate. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 12d
Mohamed El-Erian FED · POLICY ERROR HIGHER Strong
Growth US services activity expanded to a six-month high, with new orders reaching their strongest level in more than three years. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 13d
David Rosenberg RECESSION RISK LOWER Moderate
Growth Real consumer spending will decline as cost shocks reduce real wages, weakening demand after the initial inflation impact. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 13d
Andreas Steno Larsen GLOBAL MACRO HIGHER Strong
Growth Productivity growth is being underestimated, with official recognition of a productivity boom likely to emerge within a year or two. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 19d
David Woo RATES · FX · GEOPOLITICS LOWER Moderate
Growth Growth is slowing, strengthening the case for long bonds and weakening the rationale for additional Federal Reserve tightening. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 28d
Joseph Wang FED PLUMBING BEARISH Moderate
Growth The economy is probably weaker than markets expected after retail sales missed sharply and last month's payrolls showed a shocking loss of jobs. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 32d
Ben Carlson ALLOCATION · BEHAVIOUR HIGHER Moderate
Growth The economy should remain resilient as historically low unemployment and a larger affluent population support sustained consumer spending. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 33d
Michael Howell GLOBAL LIQUIDITY HIGHER Strong
Growth The real economy is stronger and more robust than widely envisioned, with global expansion expected to continue well into 2027 and possibly early 2028. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 34d
Ed Yardeni EARNINGS · PRODUCTIVITY HIGHER Strong
Growth The economy is doing very well as consumers continue spending, with financially strong seniors helping younger households despite an affordability crisis. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 34dRecession Risk
8 Views Darius Dale REGIME NOWCAST · FUNNEL LOWER Strong
Recession Risk U.S. recession risk remains low amid a resilient, booming economy, consistent with a long-standing position rather than a fresh call. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 3h Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE LOWER Moderate
Recession Risk Recession risk remains low because accelerating cyclical momentum continues to support the economy despite the burden of higher interest rates. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 2d Jeffrey Snider DOLLAR LIQUIDITY HIGHER Strong
Recession Risk Consumer expectations for unemployment are at levels associated with past recessions, while weak hiring and spending restraint point to mounting recession risk. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 3d Bob Elliott MACRO ALLOCATION HIGHER Moderate
Recession Risk Demand destruction will require either substantially higher prices, an equity-bubble burst, or sufficient tightening that produces real economic contraction. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 12d Luke Gromen FISCAL DOMINANCE HIGHER Moderate
Recession Risk AI-driven healthcare job displacement exceeding 4% to 5% of US employment would trigger mortgage, consumer-credit defaults, and a Great Financial Crisis-like outcome. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 19d Lance Roberts MACRO · POSITIONING HIGHER Strong
Recession Risk A severe overnight 3% to 5% spike in interest rates would shut down economic activity, trigger recession, and create financial-market events. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 22d Danielle DiMartino Booth LABOR INTERNALS HIGHER Strong
Recession Risk A credit crisis is intensifying as persistently high Treasury yields and widening CCC bond spreads pressure interest-rate-sensitive households, borrowers, and risky assets. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 25d Ed Yardeni EARNINGS · PRODUCTIVITY LOWER Strong
Recession Risk Recession risk is expected to remain low through the end of the decade as the US economy continues to withstand repeated stress tests. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 35dInflation
29 Views Darius Dale REGIME NOWCAST · FUNNEL HIGHER Strong
Inflation PCE inflation should remain sticky, reaching the 2% target only in 2029 rather than 2028, despite the Fed's claim of a timely return. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 3h Danielle DiMartino Booth LABOR INTERNALS LOWER Strong
Inflation Inflation is expected to come down as one-time increases in wireless products and Airbnb fade and unit sales continue declining. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 4h Peter Schiff AUSTRIAN · GOLD HIGHER Strong
Inflation Inflation will remain on an upward path even if the Fed hikes 50 basis points, leaving policy too late to derail the inflation trend. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 8h Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOME HIGHER Strong
Inflation Services inflation is heading toward 4%, leaving the Federal Reserve unable to reach its 2% inflation target unless recession destroys demand. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 9h
Keith McCullough QUAD REGIME · FUNNEL HIGHER Moderate
Inflation Energy inflation is expected to move higher over the next month, reinforcing a broader inflationary backdrop across commodities and markets. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 14h
Mark Newton INSTITUTIONAL TECHNICALS LOWER Moderate
Inflation Inflation is viewed as transitory, while supply-driven oil prices are expected to decline next year and reduce price pressures. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 1d
Cem Karsan DEALER GAMMA · VOL LOWER Strong
Inflation Core inflation is on track to return to target in about a year as core PCE moving averages decline and converge toward lower CPI readings. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 1d
Jurrien Timmer LONG-HORIZON MACRO HIGHER Moderate
Inflation Inflation remains elevated at 3.4% while commodity indices have reached new all-time highs, raising questions about complacent market pricing. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 1d Bob Elliott MACRO ALLOCATION HIGHER Moderate
Inflation Product prices are now well above all-time highs, pointing to persistently elevated goods prices rather than a return to prior price levels. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 1d Liz Ann Sonders US EQUITY MACRO HIGHER Moderate
Inflation Producer inflation has continued to outpace consumer inflation, leaving the year-over-year CPI-PPI spread persistently negative since March after another August rollover. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 1d
Tom Lee US EQUITY STRATEGY LOWER Strong
Inflation Core PCE is set to decline 100 basis points by early 2027 as supply-shock effects fade from 1.75 percentage points to 0.75 percentage points. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 1d Jeffrey Snider DOLLAR LIQUIDITY LOWER Moderate
Inflation Higher oil prices can lift headline inflation temporarily, but weaker household demand elsewhere prevents an economy-wide inflationary spiral. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 2d Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE HIGHER Strong
Inflation Core inflation faces an upward bias as cyclical employment growth accelerates, increasing the risk it remains above target for longer. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 2d Luke Gromen FISCAL DOMINANCE HIGHER Strong
Inflation Skyrocketing shipping costs from war and energy disruptions are secularly inflationary, with stronger effects expected through year-end and the first half of next year. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 2d Charlie Bilello DATA · BREADTH HIGHER Strong
Inflation Inflation has persisted despite 175 basis points of Fed rate cuts since September 2024, with the 10-year Treasury yield rising from 3.7% to above 5%. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 2d Joseph Wang FED PLUMBING HIGHER Strong
Inflation Inflation is set to rise in the United States and globally as higher crude, diesel, and gasoline prices filter through the economy. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 4d Steve Hanke MONEY SUPPLY HIGHER Strong
Inflation Inflation faces continued upward pressure as Divisia M4 money supply grows 7.9% annually, well above the 6% rate consistent with the Fed’s 2% target. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 4d Lance Roberts MACRO · POSITIONING LOWER Moderate
Inflation Inflation excluding gasoline and other volatile components is not far from the 2% target, making an oil-driven rate hike potentially misguided. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 5d
David Keller TECHNICAL · FINAL BAR HIGHER Moderate
Inflation Higher crude oil prices are expected to feed through to broader prices after a lag, becoming more visible as consumers face rising energy and shipping costs. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 5d Mohamed El-Erian FED · POLICY ERROR HIGHER Moderate
Inflation US core inflation exceeded expectations at 0.3% in August while headline CPI rose 0.4%, contributing to higher yields and increased rate-hike expectations next week. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 5d David Woo RATES · FX · GEOPOLITICS HIGHER Strong
Inflation Inflation is expected to rise during September as converging political, geopolitical, and monetary risks create a worsening market environment. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 5d
Peter Reznicek MARKET PROFILE · ES HIGHER Weak
Inflation Inflation data due tomorrow represents a near-term risk as rising rates and oil remain active market drivers without signs of topping. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 6d
Peter Boockvar DATA REACTION HIGHER Strong
Inflation Inflation pressures remain broader than CPI alone, as someone must absorb the 5.4% headline PPI gain even if consumers do not. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 6d Andreas Steno Larsen GLOBAL MACRO LOWER Moderate
Inflation Core CPI is likely to come in soft enough tomorrow to cast doubt on a September rate hike. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 6d Chris Ciovacco TREND · CYCLE HIGHER Moderate
Inflation Inflation remains a more significant current risk than an earnings-driven deflationary event, though market signals do not yet indicate showstopper inflation. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 11d David Rosenberg RECESSION RISK LOWER Strong
Inflation Inflation numbers are expected to surprise to the downside over the next several months as below-potential growth puts downward pressure on aggregate prices. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 26d Michael Howell GLOBAL LIQUIDITY HIGHER Moderate
Inflation US nominal GDP acceleration driven by fiscal spending, AI investment, deglobalization, and inventory building implies both stronger activity growth and higher inflation. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 34d
Michael Kantrowitz HOPE CYCLE HIGHER Weak
Inflation Inflation surprises are leading the tone of Fed communication, supporting a longer period of unchanged policy before hawkishness begins to ease. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 34d Ed Yardeni EARNINGS · PRODUCTIVITY HIGHER Moderate
Inflation Inflation faces short-run upward pressure from tariffs, volatile energy prices, and Middle East supply-chain disruptions despite disinflationary unit labor costs. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 36dLabor
18 Views Darius Dale REGIME NOWCAST · FUNNEL HIGHER Moderate
LABOR The U.S. labor market should remain resilient, with unemployment projected at 4.1% through 2029 and growth supporting room for tighter monetary policy. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 3h Danielle DiMartino Booth LABOR INTERNALS LOWER Moderate
LABOR US hiring has weakened despite higher July job openings, as listings can remain online after positions are filled and obscure labor demand. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 21h Luke Gromen FISCAL DOMINANCE LOWER Moderate
LABOR Cheaper healthcare driven by AI would cause substantial healthcare unemployment, creating economic and political stress as workers struggle with mortgages and consumer loans. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 2d Jeffrey Snider DOLLAR LIQUIDITY LOWER Strong
LABOR The labor market is unlikely to improve, with an economy-wide hiring freeze and rising consumer fears that employment conditions will deteriorate further. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 3d Lance Roberts MACRO · POSITIONING LOWER Strong
LABOR Labor market conditions have slowed considerably, with underlying payroll growth potentially closer to 50,000–70,000 jobs monthly after revisions. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 5d Liz Ann Sonders US EQUITY MACRO BEARISH Moderate
LABOR August real average hourly earnings fell 0.3% year over year, while real weekly earnings rose only 0.3%, signaling weaker household labor-income momentum. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 5d Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE LOWER Weak
LABOR Residential construction employment has weakened more gradually because declining homebuilder profit margins absorbed much of the housing downturn's pressure instead of large-scale layoffs. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 5d Peter Schiff AUSTRIAN · GOLD LOWER Strong
LABOR US labor-market participation is historically weak relative to population, while multiple jobholders inflate the headline count of Americans working. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 6d Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOME HIGHER Moderate
LABOR Labor-market tightness is likely to persist as a closed border filters through, eventually showing up in higher wages while unemployment remains near 4.1% to 4.2%. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 8d Steve Hanke MONEY SUPPLY LOWER Moderate
LABOR U.S. August job numbers were not as strong as headline figures suggested after examining the details beneath the surface. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 10d Joseph Wang FED PLUMBING BULLISH Moderate
LABOR Labor market may be heating up in coming weeks, with the unemployment rate gradually trending lower and stronger wage growth potentially following. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 11d Bob Elliott MACRO ALLOCATION LOWER Moderate
LABOR US labor conditions appear softer than the payroll headline suggests, as weak ADP and contracting Paychex data conflict with the 162,000 payroll gain. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 12d Ben Carlson ALLOCATION · BEHAVIOUR HIGHER Moderate
LABOR The labor market remains resilient, with unemployment falling from 4.5% in November to 4.1% in August and average monthly job gains of 80,000 in 2026. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 12d Mohamed El-Erian FED · POLICY ERROR HIGHER Strong
LABOR US labor market remains robust, with nonfarm payrolls rising to 162,000, participation reaching 61.6%, and unemployment holding at 4.1%. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 12d Andreas Steno Larsen GLOBAL MACRO LOWER Moderate
LABOR Payrolls posted a strong beat, but the immediate labor-market reaction is a fade rather than a signal of sustained strength. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 12d David Rosenberg RECESSION RISK LOWER Strong
LABOR Labor market could become the fourth-quarter surprise, with repeated negative nonfarm payroll prints possible by October or November rather than a one-off decline. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 13d Keith McCullough QUAD REGIME · FUNNEL HIGHER Moderate
LABOR The labor market is improving, signaling stronger employment conditions and a firmer near-term outlook for the United States economy. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 13d Michael Kantrowitz HOPE CYCLE LOWER Weak
LABOR Labor-market surprises are leading the tone of Fed communication, supporting a longer period of unchanged policy before hawkishness begins to ease. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 34dHousing
16 Views Liz Ann Sonders US EQUITY MACRO LOWER Strong
Housing US homeownership affordability has remained unaffordable for more than five years, with the Atlanta Fed’s affordability monitor falling to 68 in July. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 11h Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE LOWER Strong
Housing Housing remains in an ongoing downturn that additional rate hikes will eventually collide with as high debt limits sustainable policy rates. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 2d Steve Hanke MONEY SUPPLY LOWER Strong
Housing Existing home sales have fallen 2% in August to their lowest level in more than a year as 30-year mortgage rates rise above 7%. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 2d Jeffrey Snider DOLLAR LIQUIDITY LOWER Strong
Housing Housing market activity is weakening as existing-home sales fall despite rising inventory, reflecting households’ deteriorating confidence in future employment and income. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 6d Charlie Bilello DATA · BREADTH LOWER Strong
Housing US housing affordability has deteriorated as median existing-home prices rose to $429,000 and 30-year mortgage rates reached 6.8%, lifting down payments and monthly costs. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 6d Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOME HIGHER Moderate
Housing Housing market remains resilient despite high mortgage rates, with average US home prices above $410,000 and homeowners still able to raise selling prices. LEVELS · TARGET 410000
Month 6d Ben Carlson ALLOCATION · BEHAVIOUR HIGHER Moderate
Housing Gen Z homeownership is expected to rise over time despite younger households facing a worse housing starting point than prior generations. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 7d Danielle DiMartino Booth LABOR INTERNALS LOWER Moderate
Housing Luxury housing faces mounting foreclosure risk as wealthy owners are often the first to walk away when market conditions deteriorate. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 9d Keith McCullough QUAD REGIME · FUNNEL LOWER Strong
Housing Housing is a short position, reflecting a bearish view that home prices and broader housing-market conditions will weaken over the medium-term path. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 14d Bob Elliott MACRO ALLOCATION LOWER Moderate
Housing Housing prices remain elevated despite weak fundamentals, but worsening housing-market conditions threaten a cooling trend and a key support for consumer spending. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 17d Darius Dale REGIME NOWCAST · FUNNEL LOWER Strong
Housing Housing remains in recession as interest-rate-sensitive sectors continue declining beneath aggregate statistics distorted by stronger activity among higher-income households. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 20d Lance Roberts MACRO · POSITIONING BULLISH Moderate
Housing Home prices offer better value as higher mortgage rates reduce buyer demand, making the current affordability backdrop a favorable time to purchase a house. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 22d Mohamed El-Erian FED · POLICY ERROR LOWER Moderate
Housing US new home sales fell in July as elevated mortgage rates weighed on demand, increasing economic and political pressure around the housing market. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 22d Peter Schiff AUSTRIAN · GOLD LOWER Strong
Housing US pending home sales plunged back near record lows in July, signaling continued weakness in the housing market. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 29d Joseph Wang FED PLUMBING BEARISH Moderate
Housing Housing could weaken as climbing mortgage rates from rising long-bond yields worsen financing conditions and weigh on prospective homebuyer demand. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 32d Ed Yardeni EARNINGS · PRODUCTIVITY HIGHER Moderate
Housing Home prices are rising as baby boomers retain their houses rather than downsizing, constraining housing supply amid persistent affordability pressure for younger households. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 36dFed Policy
31 Views
Jason Shapiro POSITIONING · COT TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy The Fed delivered a 25-basis-point hike and a distinctly hawkish message, with the market increasingly pricing additional rate increases. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 2h Bob Elliott MACRO ALLOCATION TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy Fed policy remains far too easy under current conditions, with one or two additional rate hikes needed to meet its mandate. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 2h Darius Dale REGIME NOWCAST · FUNNEL TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy Fed policy likely requires two to four additional rate hikes to return to neutral, with markets expecting three hikes over the next 12 months. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 3h Danielle DiMartino Booth LABOR INTERNALS TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy The Fed is expected to deliver a subsequent rate hike in December, while no additional move is anticipated throughout next year. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 4h Jeffrey Snider DOLLAR LIQUIDITY EASIER Moderate
Fed Policy Federal Reserve hawkish policy interpretation conflicts with its own data and projections, though policymakers may continue to disregard those inconsistencies. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 4h Keith McCullough QUAD REGIME · FUNNEL TIGHTER Moderate
Fed Policy Federal Reserve is persistently late to recognize phase transitions, implying policy may remain too restrictive as market conditions shift. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 4h Charlie Bilello DATA · BREADTH TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy The Fed raised rates 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, its first increase since 2023, and signaled further hikes before year-end. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 4h Joseph Wang FED PLUMBING TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy Fed policy appears set for a hiking cycle, with today’s rate increase framed as merely removing a dose of accommodation. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 4h Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOME EASIER Moderate
Fed Policy The Fed finally responded to two years of market signals that policy was wrong, after a rate-cutting cycle left long-term interest rates higher. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 4h Mohamed El-Erian FED · POLICY ERROR TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy Fed delivered a 25-basis-point rate hike, its first since 2023, after market expectations reached 92%, making a hold likely to push yields higher. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 5h
Nick Timiraos FED REPORTER · ANCHOR TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy The Fed unanimously raised rates by 25 basis points, while most officials projected one additional rate hike before year-end. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 5h Tom Lee US EQUITY STRATEGY EASIER Strong
Fed Policy A Fed rate hike announced today would be a policy error, favoring a less restrictive policy outcome instead. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 6h Lance Roberts MACRO · POSITIONING EASIER Moderate
Fed Policy Fed could hike now but reverse course with rate cuts in early 2027 as tighter financial conditions work through the economy. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 6h Mark Newton INSTITUTIONAL TECHNICALS TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy The Fed is expected to deliver a 25-basis-point rate hike tomorrow, though the move is likely one and done rather than three hikes priced by the curve. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 1d
Brent Kochuba GAMMA · 0DTE · FUNNEL TIGHTER Moderate
Fed Policy FOMC rate hike is priced, but the dot plot remains unpriced and creates outlier risk into the meeting. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 1d Cem Karsan DEALER GAMMA · VOL EASIER Strong
Fed Policy Fed policy should become more dovish as inflation data and forecasts decline, while a hike would represent an incoherent reaction function. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 1d Jurrien Timmer LONG-HORIZON MACRO TIGHTER Moderate
Fed Policy Federal Reserve faces market pressure to reverse two misplaced rate cuts from last year as real rates remain 2.59% amid 3.4% inflation. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 1d Peter Schiff AUSTRIAN · GOLD EASIER Moderate
Fed Policy Fed policy will likely pivot toward fighting a recession before inflation is contained, even if easier policy exacerbates the inflation problem. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 1d Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE TIGHTER Moderate
Fed Policy Federal Reserve tightening is not a near-term policy mistake while cyclical employment growth rises and the 3M10Y curve stands at positive 100 basis points. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 2d Luke Gromen FISCAL DOMINANCE TIGHTER Moderate
Fed Policy The Fed will probably either make only a small cut or refrain from cutting rates for now, despite fiscal-dominance pressures favoring aggressive easing. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 2d Chris Ciovacco TREND · CYCLE TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy Fed funds futures price a 25-basis-point hike at roughly 87%, making a hold at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting a significant surprise. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 4d Peter Reznicek MARKET PROFILE · ES TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy Federal Reserve futures imply roughly a 90% chance of a rate hike next Wednesday, making no increase a major surprise. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 4d Liz Ann Sonders US EQUITY MACRO TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy Fed rate-hike odds have risen above 85%, signaling a high probability of tighter monetary policy in the near term. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 5d Michael Kantrowitz HOPE CYCLE TIGHTER Moderate
Fed Policy Fed policy remains hawkish as higher rates, rising oil, and tightening financial conditions continue pressuring S&P 500 valuation multiples. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 5d Andreas Steno Larsen GLOBAL MACRO EASIER Moderate
Fed Policy A soft core CPI print tomorrow is likely to put a September rate hike in doubt, supporting an easier policy outlook. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 6d David Woo RATES · FX · GEOPOLITICS TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy Oil spike kills monetary easing expectations rapidly, creating a tail-risk transmission that pressures consumers, earnings, and the AI trade. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 8d David Rosenberg RECESSION RISK EASIER Strong
Fed Policy The Fed’s next move is more likely to be a rate cut than another increase, contingent on incoming economic data. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 27d David Keller TECHNICAL · FINAL BAR LOWER Moderate
Fed Policy September rate-hike odds are falling as inflation data remains contained, with expectations shifting toward October or potentially later meetings. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 33d Michael Howell GLOBAL LIQUIDITY HIGHER Strong
Fed Policy US policy rates are likely to rise within months as elevated two-year Treasury yields signal tightening and strong nominal growth pushes market rates higher. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 34d Peter Boockvar DATA REACTION TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy Bank of Japan likely has political clearance for a near-term rate hike, with the next move potentially arriving in September or October. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 34d Ed Yardeni EARNINGS · PRODUCTIVITY EASIER Moderate
Fed Policy The Fed should deliver a quarter-point move soon because it would restore credibility while doing less harm to the economy than continued inaction. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 34dLiquidity
14 Views Jeffrey Snider DOLLAR LIQUIDITY LOWER Strong
Liquidity Global credit risk is being repriced as public and private lenders become more selective, reducing refinancing availability for the weakest borrowers. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 1d Darius Dale REGIME NOWCAST · FUNNEL HIGHER Strong
Liquidity Policy intervention to capitalize the Treasury market is expected to accelerate, driving default via debasement through expanded bank deregulation and potential Federal Reserve balance-sheet support. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 1d Lance Roberts MACRO · POSITIONING LOWER Strong
Liquidity Federal Reserve balance-sheet tightening is extracting liquidity from equities after years of zero rates and quantitative easing pushed capital into financial markets. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 2d Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOME EASIER Strong
Liquidity Monetary conditions are too easy, creating a tailwind for broad commodity markets as Fed easing continues to support demand. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 4d Steve Hanke MONEY SUPPLY HIGHER Strong
Liquidity US Divisia M4 money supply has surged, helping bring bond vigilantes out of hibernation alongside Trump’s tariffs and war on Iran. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 6d Cem Karsan DEALER GAMMA · VOL HIGHER Moderate
Liquidity Trump administration policy is positioned to inject a massive amount of liquidity, potentially pumping markets ahead of the midterm elections. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 8d Luke Gromen FISCAL DOMINANCE HIGHER Moderate
Liquidity US reshoring and competition with China could require a wartime-style policy response, including yield-curve control and a sharply expanded Fed balance sheet. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 15d Peter Schiff AUSTRIAN · GOLD HIGHER Moderate
Liquidity The Fed is growing its balance sheet, adding liquidity even as persistent inflation would warrant a more decisive policy response. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 15d Andreas Steno Larsen GLOBAL MACRO HIGHER Moderate
Liquidity Scott Bessent’s liquidity management is aimed at prolonging the credit cycle into 2027, supporting greater market liquidity over the coming year. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 20d Joseph Wang FED PLUMBING HIGHER Strong
Liquidity Draining the TGA would boost bank reserve assets and deposit liabilities, unbottling cash previously created but locked away in the Treasury General Account. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 23d Mark Newton INSTITUTIONAL TECHNICALS HIGHER Moderate
Liquidity Treasury buyback expansion has provided a cushion to long-dated Treasuries and fueled liquidity optimism across commodities, precious metals and crypto. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 26d Jurrien Timmer LONG-HORIZON MACRO HIGHER Moderate
Liquidity Fund flows into equity and bond funds and ETFs remain robust, with levels now exceeding those seen in 2021. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 27d Michael Howell GLOBAL LIQUIDITY LOWER Strong
Liquidity Global liquidity growth has peaked and is rolling over, with the cycle unlikely to bottom before mid-to-late 2027 despite elevated absolute liquidity levels. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 34d Julien Bittel LIQUIDITY · CYCLES HIGHER Strong
Liquidity Global liquidity has not peaked and is expected to continue rising, supporting risk assets through 2026 despite Bitcoin pricing a liquidity-cycle peak. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 244dFiscal & Treasury
24 Views Steve Hanke MONEY SUPPLY HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury The Iran war's final direct cost will likely reach at least $1 trillion, implying substantially larger US fiscal outlays than current official estimates. LEVELS · TARGET 1000000000000
Year 1h Luke Gromen FISCAL DOMINANCE HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury Federal Reserve rate hikes increase US government deficits through higher interest expense, making monetary tightening fiscally counterproductive rather than restrictive. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 5h Danielle DiMartino Booth LABOR INTERNALS HIGHER Moderate
Fiscal & Treasury Government debt refinancing is increasingly concentrated at the short end, raising exposure to larger near-term Treasury issuance needs. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 10h Michael Kantrowitz HOPE CYCLE HIGHER Weak
Fiscal & Treasury The deficit is no longer steering markets and is instead along for the ride, relegated to the trunk. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 1d Darius Dale REGIME NOWCAST · FUNNEL HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury US fiscal dynamics are on a runaway trajectory, with a full-blown fiscal crisis carrying high probability by 2030 and potentially beginning in the second half of 2028. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 1d Peter Schiff AUSTRIAN · GOLD HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury Federal deficits are set to explode as bipartisan support grows for direct payments to Americans and broader big-government spending initiatives. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 1d Charlie Bilello DATA · BREADTH HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury US trillion-dollar deficits, exploding national debt, and money printing reflect disappearing fiscal discipline and leave Americans bearing the resulting costs. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 3d Mohamed El-Erian FED · POLICY ERROR HIGHER Moderate
Fiscal & Treasury Treasury financing demand is increasingly outstripping supply, driving a surge in yields and making this week’s Federal Reserve meeting unusually difficult. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 3d Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOME HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury Federal borrowing and spending are elevated, supporting commodity demand through purchases of materials while reinforcing an over-budget-deficit cycle. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 4d Jason Shapiro POSITIONING · COT HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury The administration is worsening the country’s long-built fiscal problem, while its debt-heavy approach raises the risk of escalating financial-market stress. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 6d Keith McCullough QUAD REGIME · FUNNEL HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury US taxpayer-funded $1 trillion deficit spending would materially expand fiscal outlays, including proposed payments of $5,000 per American. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 6d Mike Green PASSIVE FLOWS · STRUCTURE HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury US fiscal stress remains a serious and dangerous situation, while Treasury debt-management actions can only affect government interest costs rather than taxes or spending. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 6d Cem Karsan DEALER GAMMA · VOL LOWER Moderate
Fiscal & Treasury Fiscal discipline messaging around a prospective Warsh policy shift is an elaborate good-cop, bad-cop routine rather than a genuine commitment to austerity. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 20d Liz Ann Sonders US EQUITY MACRO HIGHER Moderate
Fiscal & Treasury Fiscal-policy concerns have revived as Treasury ramps up buybacks of long-dated government debt, contributing to the return of the debasement trade. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 23d Joseph Wang FED PLUMBING HIGHER Moderate
Fiscal & Treasury Treasury financing pressures are likely to remain a dominant force in markets, favoring larger deficits and more issuance rather than easing fiscal conditions. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 23d Jurrien Timmer LONG-HORIZON MACRO HIGHER Moderate
Fiscal & Treasury Fiscal policy remains loose, contributing to a run-it-hot economy, sticky inflation, and renewed bear steepening across the Treasury yield curve. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 26d David Woo RATES · FX · GEOPOLITICS HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury America’s $2T+ deficit, alongside foreign Treasury selling and AI investment, is draining savings and increasing Treasury supply pressure. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 27d Ben Carlson ALLOCATION · BEHAVIOUR LOWER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury US government debt is unlikely to trigger a crisis despite continued spending, reserve-currency status, and persistent Treasury demand. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 28d Jeffrey Snider DOLLAR LIQUIDITY HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury US debt has likely crossed $40 trillion and continues rising, while deficit-driven spending and interest costs remain the larger problem than Treasury market rates. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 28d Peter Boockvar DATA REACTION HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury US interest expense will rise as long-term Treasuries are replaced with T-bills yielding around 3.75%, further inflating government debt and deficits. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 28d Tom Lee US EQUITY STRATEGY HIGHER Moderate
Fiscal & Treasury The deficit is growing despite a booming economy, leaving fiscal imbalances unusually large even as economic expansion remains strong. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 29d Ed Yardeni EARNINGS · PRODUCTIVITY HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury Government debt will leave younger generations with a substantial fiscal burden as baby boomers retire, an intergenerational transfer rather than a temporary imbalance. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 34d Michael Howell GLOBAL LIQUIDITY HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury Treasury bill funding could rise toward 30% of outstanding US federal debt, materially increasing short-dated issuance from already elevated levels. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 34d Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE HIGHER Moderate
Fiscal & Treasury Federal budget deficits near 7% of GDP fund household transfers and consumption rather than productive investment, supporting a persistently consumption-led economy. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 35d