GLOBAL MACRO
Andreas Steno Larsen
As of 28 September 2026, Andreas Steno Larsen holds 20 current views on Headge, 11 Bullish, 9 Bearish. The latest is Lower on Liquidity over 1 Year. Every view links to the original post or video.
Former Nordea global chief strategist. Data-driven global macro, liquidity, commodities, positioning and policy surprises.
VIEWS 3
LAST PUBLISHED 1D AGO
Catch-Up
Generated 08:00 ET
The near-term macro concern is that renewed yield-curve inversions could bring recession risk back into focus, even as the oil read remains lower on the view that an export ban would undercut the market’s interpretation of the policy shock. Over a longer horizon, the bigger financial-stability risk is AI-driven cash migration into higher-yielding accounts, which could erode banks’ cheap deposit bases and tighten liquidity.
At Generation 1 Higher · 0 Neutral · 2 Lower
Mix By Horizon
1 Week
0 BULL 0 NEUT 1 BEAR
1 Month
1 BULL 0 NEUT 0 BEAR
1 Year
0 BULL 0 NEUT 1 BEAR
New Views
Liquidity
LOWER
AI agents could trigger a bank run by moving household cash into 3–5% accounts, stripping banks of cheap deposits and reducing available liquidity. YearHeld
Recession Risk
HIGHER
Yield-curve inversions across several markets are likely to revive widespread recession concerns, raising perceived US downturn risk in the near term. Month USO
LOWER
Oil should trade lower, not higher, because a US export ban would weaken the market’s current interpretation of the policy shock. WeekA daily catch-up of talking heads, in fifteen minutes.
Sentiment Graph
Today
SENTIMENT GRAPH
Current Views
ANALYSTDIRECTIONTOPICSUMMARYHORIZONFRESH
Andreas Steno Larsen GLOBAL MACRO LOWER Moderate
Liquidity AI agents could trigger a bank run by moving household cash into 3–5% accounts, stripping banks of cheap deposits and reducing available liquidity. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 1d Andreas Steno Larsen GLOBAL MACRO HIGHER Moderate
Recession Risk Yield-curve inversions across several markets are likely to revive widespread recession concerns, raising perceived US downturn risk in the near term. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 4d Andreas Steno Larsen GLOBAL MACRO LOWER Moderate
USO Oil should trade lower, not higher, because a US export ban would weaken the market’s current interpretation of the policy shock. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 5d Andreas Steno Larsen GLOBAL MACRO HIGHER Moderate
Positioning & Vol Bearish positioning remains widespread into the current rally, leaving market sentiment notably crowded on the short side near term. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 7d Andreas Steno Larsen GLOBAL MACRO BULLISH Moderate
Positioning & Vol Market positioning is excessively bearish, resembling March and April conditions and creating a potentially favorable near-term contrarian setup for risk assets. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 7d Andreas Steno Larsen GLOBAL MACRO BULLISH Moderate
AI AI and crypto are complementary long-term trades, with the agent economy expected to use both technologies together rather than competitively. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 7d Andreas Steno Larsen GLOBAL MACRO HIGHER Moderate
Growth South Korean export data continues accelerating, signaling resilient global trade momentum rather than an imminent slowdown in US-relevant growth. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 7d Andreas Steno Larsen GLOBAL MACRO BULLISH Moderate
SPY The S&P's pain trade remains higher following the rate hike, suggesting markets have absorbed tighter policy without a damaging risk-off response. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 11d Andreas Steno Larsen GLOBAL MACRO BEARISH Moderate
DXY The dollar's pain trade remains lower after the rate hike, indicating a weaker USD despite tighter policy and a market that has absorbed the move. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 11d Andreas Steno Larsen GLOBAL MACRO BULLISH Moderate
TLT Long bonds have a strengthening bullish setup, with the case for a sustained bond rally increasingly coming together. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 13d Andreas Steno Larsen GLOBAL MACRO BULLISH Weak
TLT Long-end bonds warrant a somewhat more constructive stance, implying potential support for duration and lower long-term yields over the coming weeks. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 17d Andreas Steno Larsen GLOBAL MACRO BULLISH Strong
SPY Equities face a higher near-term pain trade after semi-hot CPI, alongside a weaker USD and lower oil once the initial reaction settles. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 17d Andreas Steno Larsen GLOBAL MACRO BEARISH Strong
USO Oil faces a lower near-term pain trade after semi-hot CPI, alongside a weaker USD and higher equities once the initial reaction settles. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 17d Andreas Steno Larsen GLOBAL MACRO BEARISH Strong
DXY The USD faces a lower near-term pain trade after semi-hot CPI, even as risk assets rise once the initial market reaction settles. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 17d Andreas Steno Larsen GLOBAL MACRO LOWER Moderate
Inflation Core CPI is likely to come in soft enough tomorrow to cast doubt on a September rate hike. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 18d Andreas Steno Larsen GLOBAL MACRO EASIER Moderate
Fed Policy A soft core CPI print tomorrow is likely to put a September rate hike in doubt, supporting an easier policy outlook. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 18d Andreas Steno Larsen GLOBAL MACRO BULLISH Moderate
SPY The equity bubble remains unusually weak, but the prevailing pain trade is for the S&P 500 to move higher still. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 18d Andreas Steno Larsen GLOBAL MACRO BEARISH Moderate
ANTW Anthropic’s IPO may disappoint in four or five weeks as momentum has faded since late June and capacity constraints persist. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 19d Andreas Steno Larsen GLOBAL MACRO LOWER Moderate
DXY The dollar is struggling to gain despite current developments, with higher EUR/USD and lower USD/JPY positioned as the likely pain trade. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 19d Andreas Steno Larsen GLOBAL MACRO BEARISH Strong
DXY The U.S. dollar remains a short trade with high conviction, a position held since early-to-mid July rather than a fresh call. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 21dWordcloud
Direction By Day
| 15 SEP | 16 SEP | 17 SEP | 18 SEP | 19 SEP | 20 SEP | 21 SEP | 22 SEP | 23 SEP | 24 SEP | 25 SEP | 26 SEP | 27 SEP | 28 SEP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | · |
| DXY | ▼ | ▼ | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Fed Policy | ▲ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Growth | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | · |
| Inflation | ▼ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Liquidity | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ |
| Positioning & Vol | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · |
| Recession Risk | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| SPY | ▲ | ▲ | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| TLT | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| USO | ▼ | ▼ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ |
Sentiment Heatmap
| 15 SEP | 16 SEP | 17 SEP | 18 SEP | 19 SEP | 20 SEP | 21 SEP | 22 SEP | 23 SEP | 24 SEP | 25 SEP | 26 SEP | 27 SEP | 28 SEP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | · |
| DXY | ▼ | ▼ | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Fed Policy | ▲ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Growth | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | · |
| Inflation | ▼ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Liquidity | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ |
| Positioning & Vol | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · |
| Recession Risk | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| SPY | ▲ | ▲ | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| TLT | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| USO | ▼ | ▼ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ |
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