GLOBAL MACRO
Andreas Steno Larsen
Former Nordea global chief strategist. Data-driven global macro, liquidity, commodities, positioning and policy surprises.
Catch-Up
The setup leans on disinflation broadening across goods, energy and services, which would weaken the dollar and support spillovers into high-beta risk assets through late Q3 and early Q4. The Fed is still expected to hold steady, with limited evidence so far that the Iran war has generated a meaningful second inflation wave.
A daily catch-up of talking heads, in fifteen minutes.
Current Views
Andreas Steno Larsen GLOBAL MACROInflation indicators are trending lower as consumer goods, energy, and services soften, leaving no urgency for Federal Reserve action.
Andreas Steno Larsen GLOBAL MACROThe dollar remains the final transmission channel for broader risk appetite, with softer inflation conditions favoring a weaker USD into late Q3 and early Q4.
Andreas Steno Larsen GLOBAL MACROHigh-beta risk assets are positioned for a bullish late-Q3 and early-Q4 period as softer inflation and a weaker dollar support broader spillovers.
Andreas Steno Larsen GLOBAL MACROFed will likely continue holding rates steady, as evidence remains limited that the Iran war has produced a second wave of inflation.
Andreas Steno Larsen GLOBAL MACROInflation shows very little evidence of a second wave stemming from the Iran war, limiting pressure for renewed price acceleration.
Wordcloud
Direction By Day
| 01 AUG | 02 AUG | 03 AUG | 04 AUG | 05 AUG | 06 AUG | 07 AUG | 08 AUG | 09 AUG | 10 AUG | 11 AUG | 12 AUG | 13 AUG | 14 AUG | |
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| DXY | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ |
| Fed Policy | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ■ | ■ |
| Inflation | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ | ▼ |
| Positioning & Vol | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
Sentiment Heatmap
| 01 AUG | 02 AUG | 03 AUG | 04 AUG | 05 AUG | 06 AUG | 07 AUG | 08 AUG | 09 AUG | 10 AUG | 11 AUG | 12 AUG | 13 AUG | 14 AUG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXY | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ |
| Fed Policy | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ■ | ■ |
| Inflation | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ | ▼ |
| Positioning & Vol | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
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