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ANALYSTDIRECTIONTOPICSUMMARYHORIZONFRESH
AI
30 Views
Steve Hanke MONEY SUPPLY BULLISH Strong
AI Chinese AI dominance is only a matter of time, signaling a long-term constructive outlook for artificial intelligence despite shifting competitive leadership. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 3h
Jurrien Timmer LONG-HORIZON MACRO BEARISH Moderate
AI AI equities have been dead money since early June, as the bullish narrative may be getting overwhelmed by rising debt and equity capital. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 20h
Keith McCullough QUAD REGIME · FUNNEL BEARISH Moderate
AI AI faces bubble-like conditions and elevated market risks ahead, framing a structural caution rather than a near-term reversal call. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 21h
Peter Schiff AUSTRIAN · GOLD BULLISH Strong
AI AI-driven automation that delivers goods and services without human labor would be a win for humanity rather than a threat to employment. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 1d
Darius Dale REGIME NOWCAST · FUNNEL BULLISH Strong
AI AI development is unlikely to slow materially, with government support expected to accelerate diffusion despite concerns around large-language-model regulatory capture. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 2d
Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOME BEARISH Strong
AI AI-related companies face potentially enormous product-liability exposure from cyberattacks, creating risks that could overwhelm even multi-trillion-dollar market capitalizations. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 2d
Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE BULLISH Strong
AI AI-related business equipment investment has accelerated sharply, helping offset housing weakness and supporting the cyclical economy’s turn higher after a multi-year soft patch. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 2d
Cem Karsan DEALER GAMMA · VOL BULLISH Strong
AI AI capex remains underpinned by government-backed strategic investment and implicit Trump puts, supporting the scale and speed of hyperscaler spending through 2028. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 3d
Tom Lee US EQUITY STRATEGY BULLISH Strong
AI AI creates a third vector of growth through potentially costless innovation, supporting ownership of bottlenecks and companies that grow with AI. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 4d
JC Parets INTERMARKET · RS BULLISH Moderate
AI AI should be embraced rather than avoided, maintaining a constructive long-term stance toward artificial intelligence despite bearish media coverage this morning. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 4d
Jeffrey Snider DOLLAR LIQUIDITY BEARISH Moderate
AI AI-related debt issuance is crowding dollar funding markets, raising financing costs and forcing other borrowers to seek capital in Europe and smaller currencies. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 6d
Ben Carlson ALLOCATION · BEHAVIOUR BULLISH Weak
AI AI could improve S&P 500 EPS growth by 2% per year, while carrying a 10% chance of an extinction-level event for humanity. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 7d
David Woo RATES · FX · GEOPOLITICS BEARISH Strong
AI Oil spike crashes the AI trade through higher inflation and yields, reduced monetary easing expectations, consumer pressure, and lower earnings. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 8d
Dan Nathan OPTIONS POSITIONING BEARISH Strong
AI AI models appear stuck in an iPhone 5 moment, still useful but no longer improving dramatically enough to sustain enthusiasm. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 11d
Brent Kochuba GAMMA · 0DTE · FUNNEL BULLISH Moderate
AI AI technology remains positioned to rise into the rate scare, sustaining near-term upside despite pressure from higher-rate concerns. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 12d
Mohamed El-Erian FED · POLICY ERROR BEARISH Moderate
AI AI faces a bumpy capital-markets path as higher borrowing costs, public resistance, and shallow adoption intensify internal and external pressures. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 12d
Andreas Steno Larsen GLOBAL MACRO BULLISH Moderate
AI AI’s electricity demand and required grid capital spending are expected to provide a sustained boost to factory orders. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 12d
Benn Eifert VOL · DERIVATIVES BULLISH Weak
AI AI adoption across the middle of the curve faces bottlenecks beyond model capability, limiting how rapidly improving performance translates into broad deployment. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 12d
Lance Roberts MACRO · POSITIONING BULLISH Moderate
AI AI capital spending accounts for all reported 1.5% GDP growth, making the economy flat or potentially negative without that contribution. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 13d
Bob Elliott MACRO ALLOCATION BEARISH Moderate
AI AI expectations may have already peaked, creating a near-term risk that investor enthusiasm and valuation support fade from current levels. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 13d
Liz Ann Sonders US EQUITY MACRO BULLISH Moderate
AI Data center construction spending continued rising in July and stood nearly 60% above year-earlier levels, supporting sustained AI infrastructure investment. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 14d
Mark Newton INSTITUTIONAL TECHNICALS BULLISH Strong
AI AI spending is expected to remain in a substantial secular boom for the next couple of years despite choppiness through October and the election. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 14d
Jason Shapiro POSITIONING · COT BEARISH Strong
AI AI’s productivity-led investment boom faces lower odds of succeeding if higher interest rates and wider spreads restrict companies’ ability to finance it. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 16d
David Keller TECHNICAL · FINAL BAR BULLISH Strong
AI AI adoption remains on an upward S-curve, with capex expected to keep rising for years despite normal volatility and retail-driven enthusiasm. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 16d
Chris Ciovacco TREND · CYCLE BULLISH Moderate
AI AI and technology have recaptured rising long-term moving averages after a retracement, a constructive setup unlike the 2022 breakdown and valuation compression. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 18d
Danielle DiMartino Booth LABOR INTERNALS BEARISH Strong
AI The AI trend is running off the rails, with a surge in related imports pressing prices upward and the Fed unable to address the bubble. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 19d
Michael Kantrowitz HOPE CYCLE BULLISH Moderate
AI AI adoption and inflation anxiety are expected to remain defining forces in markets, extending the current era beyond a short-term cycle. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 23d
Brian Shannon TECHNICAL · AVWAP BULLISH Moderate
AI Semiconductors could undercut current support before building a higher low, with rising 20-day and flattening 50-day averages supporting renewed leadership. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 29d
Charlie Bilello DATA · BREADTH BEARISH Strong
AI Big Tech’s AI spending spree has created roughly $3 trillion in off-balance-sheet commitments, leaving investors likely to underestimate substantial long-term obligations. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 30d
Ed Yardeni EARNINGS · PRODUCTIVITY BULLISH Strong
AI AI capital spending remains a boom that reinforces economic resilience alongside strong consumer spending and substantial household wealth. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 36dTariffs & Geopolitics
14 Views Peter Schiff AUSTRIAN · GOLD HIGHER Strong
Tariffs & Geopolitics Tariffs are backfiring as Americans absorb the costs while China’s trade surplus continues growing, increasing trade pressure on the United States. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 1d Darius Dale REGIME NOWCAST · FUNNEL HIGHER Moderate
Tariffs & Geopolitics AI policy conflict between the White House and technology leaders versus Congress and Steve Bannon is set to intensify. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 1d Steve Hanke MONEY SUPPLY HIGHER Strong
Tariffs & Geopolitics Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz has effectively closed the passage, while Houthi control of Bab el-Mandeb intensifies geopolitical pressure on global trade. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 1d
Joseph Wang FED PLUMBING HIGHER Strong
Tariffs & Geopolitics Middle East conflict is tightening control over oil export routes, increasing geopolitical pressure and disrupting supply through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab-el-Mandeb. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 4d Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOME HIGHER Strong
Tariffs & Geopolitics Deglobalization, tariff pressure, and the Russia-Ukraine war are sustaining geopolitical stress that supports precious metals and commodity prices. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 5d Liz Ann Sonders US EQUITY MACRO HIGHER Moderate
Tariffs & Geopolitics Escalation of the U.S.-Canada trade war could disrupt lumber supplies, with Canada accounting for 44% of U.S. wood imports last year. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 5d Charlie Bilello DATA · BREADTH HIGHER Weak
Tariffs & Geopolitics Democrats hold a 53% probability of retaking the Senate and an 87% probability of retaking the House in the midterm elections. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 6d
Luke Gromen FISCAL DOMINANCE HIGHER Strong
Tariffs & Geopolitics China’s $1.2 trillion annual trade surplus could expose the limits of U.S. threats to cut off China’s oil, increasing geopolitical pressure. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 8d Mohamed El-Erian FED · POLICY ERROR HIGHER Strong
Tariffs & Geopolitics Canadian retaliatory tariffs of 15% to 50% on U.S. imports are set for tomorrow, risking further U.S. tariffs and potential bans on Canadian exports. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 9d David Woo RATES · FX · GEOPOLITICS HIGHER Strong
Tariffs & Geopolitics Geopolitical pressure is set to intensify in September through Russian escalation and Iran-related risks that could trigger an oil spike. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 9d Cem Karsan DEALER GAMMA · VOL HIGHER Strong
Tariffs & Geopolitics Trump tariffs are portrayed as illegally imposed charges that raised consumer costs without creating jobs, while refund rights enriched politically connected interests. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 13d Bob Elliott MACRO ALLOCATION HIGHER Strong
Tariffs & Geopolitics US-Iran War-related market pain is likely to persist across US trading conditions and risk assets through at least year-end. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 14d Jeffrey Snider DOLLAR LIQUIDITY LOWER Strong
Tariffs & Geopolitics De-dollarization has not materialized because global banking, collateral, and settlement systems remain dependent on the dominant dollar-based infrastructure and funding network. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 17d Lance Roberts MACRO · POSITIONING HIGHER Moderate
Tariffs & Geopolitics Tariffs, geopolitical tensions and reshoring are weakening globalization today, although businesses may return to offshore production in the next disinflationary cycle. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 21dEarnings
17 Views Jurrien Timmer LONG-HORIZON MACRO LOWER Moderate
Earnings Semiconductor earnings growth appears near its peak, leaving investors wary of an impending slowdown despite reasonable valuations and range-bound prices. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 7h Lance Roberts MACRO · POSITIONING LOWER Strong
Earnings Small- and midcap earnings growth expectations have fallen sharply from prior estimates near 60%, and high input costs may drive forward projections lower. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 11h
Julien Bittel LIQUIDITY · CYCLES HIGHER Strong
Earnings Corporate earnings continue rising strongly enough to offset valuation-multiple compression from higher yields, keeping US equities resilient rather than signaling stagflation. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 1d Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOME HIGHER Strong
Earnings S&P 500 earnings are accelerating between 30% and 50%, with Anthropic-related other income at Amazon and Alphabet contributing $200 billion. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 2d David Keller TECHNICAL · FINAL BAR LOWER Moderate
Earnings Higher energy prices could become a major issue in upcoming Q3 earnings discussions, pressuring companies as crude oil remains above $100 a barrel. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 5d Mohamed El-Erian FED · POLICY ERROR HIGHER Moderate
Earnings Corporate earnings have provided vital insulation for the US stock market, helping contain losses despite sharply higher oil prices and 10-year Treasury yields. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 6d Charlie Bilello DATA · BREADTH HIGHER Strong
Earnings S&P 500 earnings are expected to surge 34% in 2026, more than double the 15% growth forecast at the start of the year amid an AI-driven boom. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 7d David Woo RATES · FX · GEOPOLITICS LOWER Strong
Earnings Oil spike cuts earnings rapidly through higher inflation, yields, and pressure on consumers, creating a tail-risk transmission across markets. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 8d Chris Ciovacco TREND · CYCLE HIGHER Moderate
Earnings Earnings remain strong after a favorable reporting season, including technology earnings, making inflation a greater current concern than a deflationary earnings collapse. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 11d Darius Dale REGIME NOWCAST · FUNNEL HIGHER Strong
Earnings Corporate profits and margins should keep expanding as labor’s share of national income falls to new all-time lows. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 13d Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE HIGHER Weak
Earnings Corporate profits face a structurally changed household-income mix as compensation's share fell while transfers, dividends, and rental income gained importance. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 13d Bob Elliott MACRO ALLOCATION HIGHER Moderate
Earnings Corporate profitability is improving as households spend at 6% nominal while wage growth runs at 3.5%, reducing savings and lifting business top lines. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 19d Keith McCullough QUAD REGIME · FUNNEL HIGHER Moderate
Earnings Earnings growth of 52% mattered for the market over the last month, though EPS season has ended and the next catalyst now takes focus. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 19d Danielle DiMartino Booth LABOR INTERNALS LOWER Strong
Earnings Corporate profit margins are compressing as consumers lose discretionary purchasing power, creating a difficult operating environment for businesses. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 19d Steve Hanke MONEY SUPPLY LOWER Strong
Earnings Big-tech earnings quality has deteriorated as valuation gains on equity stakes exceed core operating profits at Alphabet and Amazon, turning the valuation bubble into an earnings bubble. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 31d Ed Yardeni EARNINGS · PRODUCTIVITY HIGHER Strong
Earnings Earnings are expected to continue surprising to the upside, supported by an economy that remains resilient through the end of the decade. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 35d Michael Kantrowitz HOPE CYCLE LOWER Moderate
Earnings Earnings quality warrants closer scrutiny amid circular financing, with certain companies potentially receiving lower valuations as investors assess underlying results. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 36dPositioning & Vol
25 Views Jason Shapiro POSITIONING · COT HIGHER Strong
Positioning & Vol Bond-market positioning remains problematic because persistent contrarian dip-buying in $TLT is failing, encouraging traders to add rather than exit losing longs. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 38m Keith McCullough QUAD REGIME · FUNNEL BEARISH Moderate
Positioning & Vol $SPX negative gamma means selling can feed on further selling, increasing downside volatility in the near-term market setup. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 2h Brent Kochuba GAMMA · 0DTE · FUNNEL HIGHER Weak
Positioning & Vol Equity-market volatility could finally produce a 3% move tomorrow, ending a 337-day stretch without a move of that magnitude. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 2h Darius Dale REGIME NOWCAST · FUNNEL HIGHER Strong
Positioning & Vol Technology and communications-services concentration risk remains at an all-time high domestically and near an all-time high globally despite positioning cooling from June. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 5h Jurrien Timmer LONG-HORIZON MACRO LOWER Moderate
Positioning & Vol ETF flows indicate the AI theme is becoming less crowded, reducing the concentration of investor positioning in semiconductor-related exposure. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 7h Liz Ann Sonders US EQUITY MACRO HIGHER Moderate
Positioning & Vol Russell 2000 futures positioning remains heavily net short among large speculators, indicating elevated bearish positioning in small-cap equity futures. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 10h David Keller TECHNICAL · FINAL BAR HIGHER Strong
Positioning & Vol Market breadth and volume indicators show full distribution, with the McClellan Oscillator and Chaikin Money Flow nearing extremes seen around the March low. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 17h Jeffrey Snider DOLLAR LIQUIDITY BEARISH Strong
Positioning & Vol Private credit fund withdrawals are accelerating while non-traded BDC fundraising fell from $11 billion to $2 billion, showing boom-era flow dynamics have reversed. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 23h
Peter Reznicek MARKET PROFILE · ES HIGHER Moderate
Positioning & Vol S&P 500 trading has lacked sustained directional price discovery, with frequent gaps and down closes producing a narrow 25-basis-point move since August's two-day rally. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 1d Steve Hanke MONEY SUPPLY HIGHER Strong
Positioning & Vol US stock market mania remains alive and global, indicating sustained speculative crowding and elevated risk appetite across equity markets. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 2d
Mike Green PASSIVE FLOWS · STRUCTURE BEARISH Strong
Positioning & Vol Passive investing is the most important factor in market price behavior today and could ultimately end very badly. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 4d Lance Roberts MACRO · POSITIONING HIGHER Moderate
Positioning & Vol Quadruple witching and the FOMC rate decision are likely to produce a pickup in market volatility next week. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 4d Cem Karsan DEALER GAMMA · VOL LOWER Moderate
Positioning & Vol Republican consumer sentiment is collapsing despite a Republican White House, marking a meaningful deterioration in survey-based market mood. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 5d David Woo RATES · FX · GEOPOLITICS HIGHER Strong
Positioning & Vol Market volatility is expected to surge during September as converging political, geopolitical, and monetary risks create a worsening market environment. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 5d
Peter Brandt CLASSICAL CHARTING BEARISH Moderate
Positioning & Vol Seven price-to-RSI non-confirmations indicate deteriorating technical participation, leaving the near-term market setup vulnerable to increased volatility and downside pressure. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 6d Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOME BULLISH Moderate
Positioning & Vol Reduced Fed forward guidance will force more funding-side risk management for leveraged trades, creating a messy transition with greater market uncertainty. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 12d
Adam Mancini ES LEVELS BEARISH Moderate
Positioning & Vol Low volatility and bearish control imply $ES_F rallies may advance only one or two levels before failing, despite an eventual 100-plus-point rebound. LEVELS · RESISTANCE 7671 · SUPPORT 7629
Week 14d
David Rosenberg RECESSION RISK HIGHER Strong
Positioning & Vol Market positioning is exceptionally crowded, with margin debt up 50% to $1.5 trillion, 78% bullish sentiment, mutual funds holding 1% cash, and households allocating 73% to equities. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 14d Joseph Wang FED PLUMBING BULLISH Moderate
Positioning & Vol Market volatility could increase after Labor Day as unpriced monetary-policy tightening collides with potential political risk-positive developments in the coming weeks. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 18d Chris Ciovacco TREND · CYCLE HIGHER Moderate
Positioning & Vol Market positioning does not show the risk-off deterioration associated with the dot-com collapse, financial crisis, or the early stages of the 2022 bear market. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 18d Ben Carlson ALLOCATION · BEHAVIOUR HIGHER Strong
Positioning & Vol Bonds are the most hated asset class as hedge fund managers and macro tourists crowd into short positions amid debt, deficits, and inflation concerns. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 22d JC Parets INTERMARKET · RS HIGHER Moderate
Positioning & Vol Fund managers hold just 3.5% of assets in cash, the sixth-lowest cash allocation since 1998, signaling increasingly crowded market positioning. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 25d Brian Shannon TECHNICAL · AVWAP NEUTRAL Neutral
Positioning & Vol Stock market and crypto analysis covers $SPY, $QQQ, $SMH, Bitcoin, $MU, $SNDK, $IWM, $SYF, $XLF, and $XBI for the week ending August 14. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 30d
Michael Howell GLOBAL LIQUIDITY BEARISH Moderate
Positioning & Vol The liquidity cycle has moved from a broad beta-friendly phase into a more selective, turbulent regime with high volatility and poorer-quality asset-market returns. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 34d Andreas Steno Larsen GLOBAL MACRO BULLISH Strong
Positioning & Vol High-beta risk assets are positioned for a bullish late-Q3 and early-Q4 period as softer inflation and a weaker dollar support broader spillovers. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 34d