DOLLAR LIQUIDITY

Jeffrey Snider

As of 29 September 2026, Jeffrey Snider holds 20 current views on Headge, 7 Bullish, 13 Bearish. The latest is Lower on LABOR over 1 Month. Every view links to the original post or video.

Eurodollar University. Money and credit creation, bank balance sheets, global dollar liquidity and deflationary regimes. Near-daily.

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LAST PUBLISHED 21H AGO

Catch-Up

Generated 08:00 ET

The picture is unchanged: weak hiring, softer consumer spending and front-loaded demand are read as evidence of a broader contraction rather than a durable recovery. Higher energy costs are expected to deepen the squeeze and recession risk, even as inflation expectations remain contained—leaving a tension between cost pressure and disinflationary growth conditions. That backdrop supports safety demand in long Treasuries and a tighter dollar-funding environment, while credit quality and liquidity remain vulnerable.

At Generation 5 Higher · 0 Neutral · 11 Lower

Mix By Horizon

1 Week

0 BULL 0 NEUT 1 BEAR

1 Month

3 BULL 0 NEUT 6 BEAR

1 Year

2 BULL 0 NEUT 4 BEAR

New Views

LABOR

LOWER

Hiring has essentially stopped, with barely positive ADP growth and the JOLTS hiring rate near cycle lows despite layoffs remaining limited. Mon 28 Sep · 13:48 ET Month

Held
 AI▼ BEARISH
AI makes economic data look stronger on paper but contributes absolutely nothing to the rest of the economy or the average consumer's conditions. Sun 27 Sep · 18:30 ET Year
 Inflation▲ HIGHER
Energy, transportation, and raw-material costs are expected to climb further and filter through the economy, sustaining a damaging squeeze on consumers and businesses. Sun 27 Sep · 18:30 ET Year
 XLY▼ BEARISH
Consumer discretionary has traded sideways to lower and ranks as the S&P 500's worst-performing sector, reflecting doubts about economic resilience. Sun 27 Sep · 18:30 ET Week
 Housing▼ LOWER
Consumers are cutting back at the margins as real PCE falls further below trend, showing a contraction even without a 2009-style collapse. Sun 27 Sep · 18:30 ET Month
 Growth▼ LOWER
US economic activity was front-loaded by panic buying in August and September, leaving less demand ahead and signaling a worsening contraction rather than an organic recovery. Sun 27 Sep · 18:30 ET Year
 Recession Risk▲ HIGHER
Higher diesel and broader energy costs are expected to force consumer and business cutbacks, as energy shocks typically precede recessions. Sun 27 Sep · 18:30 ET Year
 Fed Policy▼ TIGHTER
Federal Reserve is increasingly expected to raise rates despite subdued inflation expectations, with the policy path likely to reverse as growth weakens. Sat 26 Sep · 20:38 ET Month
 TLT▲ BULLISH
Long-term Treasuries reflect rising demand for safety as a fragile economy limits longer-term yields despite expected Federal Reserve rate hikes. Sat 26 Sep · 20:38 ET Month
 Inflation▼ LOWER
Inflation expectations remain subdued, as TIPS breakevens show little evidence that higher energy prices will produce a sustained broader inflation outbreak. Sat 26 Sep · 20:38 ET Month
 Growth▼ BEARISH
Long-term growth prospects remain weak, with the flat back end of the Treasury curve signaling demand for safety rather than reflation. Sat 26 Sep · 20:38 ET Month
 HYG▼ BEARISH
Credit downturns are exposing bad loans originated during the boom, suggesting underlying credit quality will deteriorate as previously overlooked risks surface. Sat 26 Sep · 12:21 ET Year
 USO▲ BULLISH
Higher petroleum prices increase energy importers’ dollar requirements, intensifying currency pressure and reinforcing the broader dollar funding shock. Thu 24 Sep · 19:06 ET Month
 Liquidity▼ LOWER
Global banks will become more selective as volatility and economic risk rise, making dollar credit lines more expensive, shorter dated, and potentially smaller. Thu 24 Sep · 19:06 ET Month
 DXY▲ BULLISH
Dollar funding will remain expensive and difficult to obtain as energy importers demand more dollars while global banks become less willing to supply them cheaply. Thu 24 Sep · 19:06 ET Month
 LABOR▼ LOWER
U.S. payroll revisions reveal the labor-market trend was weak throughout 2024 and 2025, making initially strong monthly employment headlines unreliable. Thu 24 Sep · 13:44 ET Year

Gone
 BX▼ BEARISH
$BX shares have rolled over and returned toward early-July lows as investors reprice private-credit uncertainty and redemption pressures. Wed 23 Sep · 19:25 ET Week
 APO▼ BEARISH
$APO faces continued private-credit strain as its fund limits withdrawals for a third quarter amid persistent investor redemption requests. Wed 23 Sep · 19:25 ET Week
 OWL▼ BEARISH
$OWL shares have rolled over and returned toward early-July lows as investors reprice private-credit uncertainty and redemption pressures. Wed 23 Sep · 19:25 ET Week
 BLK▼ BEARISH
$BLK shares have rolled over and returned toward early-July lows as investors reprice private-credit uncertainty and redemption pressures. Wed 23 Sep · 19:25 ET Week
 Recession Risk▲ HIGHER
Higher energy prices are increasing default risk and weakening the broader economy enough to tighten credit and undermine investor confidence. Wed 23 Sep · 19:25 ET Month
 HYG▼ BEARISH
AI-linked credit is repricing more skeptically as SoftBank pays nearly 10% on new debt and Oracle project loans trade at 89 to 91 cents. Wed 23 Sep · 19:25 ET Month

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