TECHNICAL · FINAL BAR
David Keller
CMT, Sierra Alpha Research. Daily Final Bar close-of-day show. Dense with explicit levels.
Catch-Up
The broader technical backdrop remains constructive, supported by the S&P 500’s positive trend and improving setups across semis, media, telecom and Apollo, while Microsoft’s prior breakout remains an important line in the sand. Contained inflation is easing September hike expectations, lifting Treasuries and weighing on gold, while reduced Middle East supply-risk concerns are pressuring crude. The notable exceptions are AppLovin’s broken technical structure and Amazon’s post-earnings underperformance, even as the AI build-out is seen as offering opportunity despite bubble risk.
A daily catch-up of talking heads, in fifteen minutes.
Current Views
David Keller TECHNICAL · FINAL BAR$STX has broken above its 50-day moving average, with confirmation above July swing highs and RSI above 60 close to turning bullish.
David Keller TECHNICAL · FINAL BAR$SPX making new all-time highs while AAII bulls remain at 35% is a constructive signal for further near-term upside.
David Keller TECHNICAL · FINAL BARNetflix shows a bullish momentum divergence after June and July lows, with price nearing a break above 78 and potential upside.
David Keller TECHNICAL · FINAL BARGold has pulled back as contained inflation reduces demand for its traditional inflation-hedge role, though the broader chart remains constructive.
David Keller TECHNICAL · FINAL BARWTI crude oil is declining as Middle East developments imply less supply disruption and reduced upside pressure on crude prices.
David Keller TECHNICAL · FINAL BARApollo Global has reclaimed its 200-day moving average and exceeded its June swing high, completing a rounded bottoming pattern.
David Keller TECHNICAL · FINAL BARS&P 500 maintains a positive primary trend, with a break above 7,600 encouraging and momentum strong without appearing excessive.
David Keller TECHNICAL · FINAL BARAI may be in a bubble, but the infrastructure build-out can still offer substantial opportunity while technical process identifies eventual trend shifts.
David Keller TECHNICAL · FINAL BARMicron has pushed above its 50-day moving average after a recent range breakout, signaling improving technical momentum and a constructive near-term setup.
David Keller TECHNICAL · FINAL BARAmazon has struggled after earnings, stalled below a new high, and is declining despite broader S&P 500 and Nasdaq strength.
David Keller TECHNICAL · FINAL BARNetflix has formed a bullish momentum divergence, recovered above its 50-day moving average, and is nearing a break above 78.
David Keller TECHNICAL · FINAL BARVerizon has shown strong price action for six weeks and is nearing a breakout above key resistance between 48.50 and 49.
David Keller TECHNICAL · FINAL BARComcast has formed a bullish momentum divergence and is rotating higher while testing resistance, with RSI pushing above 60.
David Keller TECHNICAL · FINAL BAR$CRAK has formed a bullish pennant after a strong advance, resolved higher, and bounced cleanly from its 21-day exponential moving average.
David Keller TECHNICAL · FINAL BARAppLovin has deteriorated below its 200-day moving average, with weakening momentum, relative strength, and moving-average structure invalidating the earlier breakout.
David Keller TECHNICAL · FINAL BARSeagate Technology has reclaimed its 50-day moving average and is close to a bullish breakout above 920–925, opening a retest above 1,100.
David Keller TECHNICAL · FINAL BARSeptember rate-hike odds are falling as inflation data remains contained, with expectations shifting toward October or potentially later meetings.
David Keller TECHNICAL · FINAL BAR$TLT rallied as Treasury yields declined following contained inflation data and reduced expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike.
David Keller TECHNICAL · FINAL BARS&P 500 trend remains positive, with a break above 7,600 encouraging and strong but not excessive momentum supporting further gains.
David Keller TECHNICAL · FINAL BARMicrosoft remains technically constructive above the previous $467 breakout level, while a break below would require reassessing the long-standing bullish thesis.
Wordcloud
Direction By Day
| 01 AUG | 02 AUG | 03 AUG | 04 AUG | 05 AUG | 06 AUG | 07 AUG | 08 AUG | 09 AUG | 10 AUG | 11 AUG | 12 AUG | 13 AUG | 14 AUG | |
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| AI | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
| AMZN | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ |
| APO | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
| APP | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ |
| CMCSA | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
| CRAK | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
| Fed Policy | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ |
| GLD | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ |
| MSFT | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
| MU | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
| NFLX | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
| SPY | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
| STX | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
| TLT | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
| USO | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ |
| VZ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
Sentiment Heatmap
| 01 AUG | 02 AUG | 03 AUG | 04 AUG | 05 AUG | 06 AUG | 07 AUG | 08 AUG | 09 AUG | 10 AUG | 11 AUG | 12 AUG | 13 AUG | 14 AUG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
| AMZN | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ |
| APO | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
| APP | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ |
| CMCSA | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
| CRAK | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
| Fed Policy | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ |
| GLD | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ |
| MSFT | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
| MU | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
| NFLX | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
| SPY | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
| STX | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
| TLT | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
| USO | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ |
| VZ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
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