RATES · FX · GEOPOLITICS
David Woo
As of 28 September 2026, David Woo holds 20 current views on Headge, 12 Bullish, 8 Bearish. The latest is Higher on Tariffs & Geopolitics over 1 Month. Every view links to the original post or video.
Former BofA Head of Global Rates, FX and EM Research. Rates, dollar, elections and geopolitics-to-markets transmission. Weekly, with explicit positioning calls.
VIEWS 5
LAST PUBLISHED 14H AGO
Catch-Up
Generated 08:00 ET
The focus remains on a Hormuz escalation: Iran’s temporary access for Saudi oil could be withdrawn absent Gulf concessions, reopening the risk of a supply shock and a sharp move higher in oil. The added geopolitical framing is that US threats toward Iran are meant to reassure Saudi Arabia and deter closer alignment with China. That same oil-shock scenario is seen as a broader market risk, particularly for $QQQ.
At Generation 4 Higher · 0 Neutral · 1 Bearish
Mix By Horizon
1 Week
2 BULL 0 NEUT 0 BEAR
1 Month
2 BULL 0 NEUT 1 BEAR
1 Year
0 BULL 0 NEUT 0 BEAR
New Views
Tariffs & Geopolitics
HIGHER
US threats to annihilate Iran are aimed at reassuring Saudi Arabia and deterring a strategic pivot toward China, raising geopolitical pressure. MonthHeld
Tariffs & Geopolitics
HIGHER
Iran is only days away from withdrawing temporary Hormuz access unless Gulf states make concessions, raising the risk of a major escalation. Week QQQ
BEARISH
Nasdaq 100 faces downside risk from another oil price surge, with a put spread held against the broader market shock scenario. Month USO
BULLISH
Oil prices could explode higher as Iran may withdraw its temporary Hormuz access, creating a renewed supply shock that threatens broader markets. Month USO
BULLISH
Oil could spike if Iran withdraws temporary passage for Saudi oil through Hormuz after its leverage strategy fails. WeekA daily catch-up of talking heads, in fifteen minutes.
Sentiment Graph
Today
SENTIMENT GRAPH
Current Views
ANALYSTDIRECTIONTOPICSUMMARYHORIZONFRESH
David Woo RATES · FX · GEOPOLITICS HIGHER Moderate
Tariffs & Geopolitics US threats to annihilate Iran are aimed at reassuring Saudi Arabia and deterring a strategic pivot toward China, raising geopolitical pressure. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 14h David Woo RATES · FX · GEOPOLITICS HIGHER Strong
Tariffs & Geopolitics Iran is only days away from withdrawing temporary Hormuz access unless Gulf states make concessions, raising the risk of a major escalation. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 1d David Woo RATES · FX · GEOPOLITICS BEARISH Strong
QQQ Nasdaq 100 faces downside risk from another oil price surge, with a put spread held against the broader market shock scenario. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 1d David Woo RATES · FX · GEOPOLITICS BULLISH Strong
USO Oil prices could explode higher as Iran may withdraw its temporary Hormuz access, creating a renewed supply shock that threatens broader markets. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 1d David Woo RATES · FX · GEOPOLITICS BULLISH Strong
USO Oil could spike if Iran withdraws temporary passage for Saudi oil through Hormuz after its leverage strategy fails. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 1d David Woo RATES · FX · GEOPOLITICS HIGHER Moderate
Earnings Corporate earnings have demonstrated strong resilience, with Q2 results up 32% excluding two companies’ investment gains, contingent on how quickly AI hardware depreciates. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 8d David Woo RATES · FX · GEOPOLITICS BEARISH Strong
AI AI infrastructure investment faces overstated reported returns as rapid hardware obsolescence, rising capital needs, and Chinese competition pressure future monetization. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 8d David Woo RATES · FX · GEOPOLITICS BULLISH Moderate
GLD Gold would rise if the fragile China truce breaks down or an AI-enabled security failure triggers a broader risk shock. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 8d David Woo RATES · FX · GEOPOLITICS BULLISH Moderate
TLT A breakdown of the fragile China truce or an AI-enabled security failure would be bullish for bonds and push long-duration Treasury prices higher. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 8d David Woo RATES · FX · GEOPOLITICS BEARISH Moderate
SPY A breakdown of the fragile China truce or an AI-enabled security failure would be bearish for stocks despite the AI trade's current resilience. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 8d David Woo RATES · FX · GEOPOLITICS HIGHER Strong
Tariffs & Geopolitics Washington is moving closer to banning Chinese AI models to shield U.S. developers from intensifying Chinese price and margin pressure. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 8d David Woo RATES · FX · GEOPOLITICS HIGHER Moderate
Earnings S&P 500 earnings are projected to grow approximately 32% in 2026 and 15% in 2027, far outpacing consensus 2% real GDP growth. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 8d David Woo RATES · FX · GEOPOLITICS HIGHER Strong
Inflation Inflation is expected to rise during September as converging political, geopolitical, and monetary risks create a worsening market environment. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 17d David Woo RATES · FX · GEOPOLITICS HIGHER Strong
Positioning & Vol Market volatility is expected to surge during September as converging political, geopolitical, and monetary risks create a worsening market environment. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 17d David Woo RATES · FX · GEOPOLITICS BEARISH Strong
SPY Equity valuations are expected to decline during September as converging political, geopolitical, and monetary risks create a worsening market environment. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 17d David Woo RATES · FX · GEOPOLITICS BEARISH Strong
TLT Bond yields are expected to soar during September as converging political, geopolitical, and monetary risks create a worsening market environment. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 17d David Woo RATES · FX · GEOPOLITICS BEARISH Strong
TLT Tail risks raise inflation, term premiums, or undermine confidence, creating danger that stocks and bonds sell off together. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 19d David Woo RATES · FX · GEOPOLITICS TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy Oil spike kills monetary easing expectations rapidly, creating a tail-risk transmission that pressures consumers, earnings, and the AI trade. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 20d David Woo RATES · FX · GEOPOLITICS HIGHER Strong
Inflation Oil spike raises inflation rapidly, creating a tail-risk transmission that pushes yields higher and pressures consumers, earnings, monetary easing expectations, and the AI trade. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 20d David Woo RATES · FX · GEOPOLITICS BEARISH Strong
AI Oil spike crashes the AI trade through higher inflation and yields, reduced monetary easing expectations, consumer pressure, and lower earnings. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 20dWordcloud
Direction By Day
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| AI | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | · | · | · | · |
| Earnings | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | · | · |
| GLD | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | · | · |
| Inflation | ▲ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Positioning & Vol | ▲ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| QQQ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ | ▼ |
| SPY | ▼ | · | · | · | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | · | · | · | · |
| Tariffs & Geopolitics | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | ▲ | ▲ |
| TLT | ▼ | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | · | · |
| USO | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ |
Sentiment Heatmap
| 15 SEP | 16 SEP | 17 SEP | 18 SEP | 19 SEP | 20 SEP | 21 SEP | 22 SEP | 23 SEP | 24 SEP | 25 SEP | 26 SEP | 27 SEP | 28 SEP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | · | · | · | · |
| Earnings | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | · | · |
| GLD | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | · | · |
| Inflation | ▲ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Positioning & Vol | ▲ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| QQQ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ | ▼ |
| SPY | ▼ | · | · | · | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | · | · | · | · |
| Tariffs & Geopolitics | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | ▲ | ▲ |
| TLT | ▼ | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | · | · |
| USO | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ |
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