Fiscal & Treasury
Catch-Up
Fiscal concerns are centered on the rapid expansion of US borrowing, with debt nearing $40 trillion as deficits and spending continue to outpace restraint. The longer-run qualification is that deficit financing is sustaining household transfers and consumption rather than productive investment, leaving the economy more leveraged and potentially more vulnerable. Schiff adds that the scale of issuance could ultimately increase pressure on the Fed to purchase Treasuries.
Peter Schiff 
Charlie Bilello Charlie Bilello 
Danielle Dimartino Booth 
Ed Yardeni 
Michael Howell 
Eric Basmajian Michael Howell 
Darius Dale 
David Woo A daily catch-up of talking heads, in fifteen minutes.
Analyst Views on Fiscal & Treasury
US national debt has risen from $19 trillion in March 2016 to $40 trillion today, highlighting a long-term expansion in federal debt.
The national debt will reach $40 trillion by month-end or sooner, intensifying pressure for Federal Reserve Treasury purchases.
National debt is quickly approaching $40 trillion, with continued leverage leaving the economy more vulnerable than it was in 2018.
Government debt will leave younger generations with a substantial fiscal burden as baby boomers retire, an intergenerational transfer rather than a temporary imbalance.
Treasury bill funding could rise toward 30% of outstanding US federal debt, materially increasing short-dated issuance from already elevated levels.
Federal budget deficits near 7% of GDP fund household transfers and consumption rather than productive investment, supporting a persistently consumption-led economy.
Federal fiscal deficits will remain structurally wider as politically protected spending compounds near 9% annually and budget improvement fails despite strong nominal growth.
Japan’s fiscal sustainability has deteriorated under aggressive stimulus plans, contributing to higher term premium, rising borrowing costs, and sustained pressure on the yen.
Wordcloud
Direction By Day
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| Charlie Bilello | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
| Danielle Dimartino Booth | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
| Darius Dale | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| David Woo | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | · |
| Ed Yardeni | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| Eric Basmajian | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ |
| Michael Howell | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| Peter Schiff | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
Sentiment Heatmap
| 01 AUG | 02 AUG | 03 AUG | 04 AUG | 05 AUG | 06 AUG | 07 AUG | 08 AUG | 09 AUG | 10 AUG | 11 AUG | 12 AUG | 13 AUG | 14 AUG | |
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| Charlie Bilello | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
| Danielle Dimartino Booth | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
| Darius Dale | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| David Woo | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | · |
| Ed Yardeni | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| Eric Basmajian | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ |
| Michael Howell | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| Peter Schiff | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |