RATES & FIXED INCOME
Jim Bianco
As of 28 September 2026, Jim Bianco holds 20 current views on Headge, 10 Bullish, 10 Bearish. The latest is Bullish on TLT over 1 Year. Every view links to the original post or video.
Bianco Research. Rates, inflation, fixed income, monetary policy and market structure. High-frequency X commentary.
VIEWS 13
LAST PUBLISHED 2H AGO
Catch-Up
Generated 08:00 ET
The picture is unchanged: accelerating activity, stubborn underlying inflation and persistent fiscal pressure point to higher-for-longer rates and renewed pressure on Treasuries, especially at longer maturities. Hot PMI data and a weak five-year auction have amplified bond-market volatility, while the Fed is seen facing greater pressure to tighten unless upcoming growth and inflation data soften materially. Longer term, stablecoin adoption is framed as a source of dollar demand, while $BTC’s case depends on a revival in development and DeFi activity.
At Generation 7 Higher · 0 Neutral · 6 Tighter
Mix By Horizon
1 Week
1 BULL 0 NEUT 3 BEAR
1 Month
2 BULL 0 NEUT 2 BEAR
1 Year
4 BULL 0 NEUT 1 BEAR
Held
Growth
HIGHER
U.S. growth is accelerating from an already booming 5% GDPNow pace, with September PMI data indicating the economy stepped on the accelerator even harder. Month Fed Policy
TIGHTER
Fed policy faces increasing pressure to tighten, as market-implied odds of an October 28 rate hike rose from 50-50 to roughly 70%. Month TLT
BEARISH
Long-duration Treasuries face downside after accelerating September activity data prompted a violent market reassessment toward a stronger economic outlook. Week Positioning & Vol
HIGHER
Bond-market volatility rose sharply this week as hotter-than-expected PMI data and one of the worst five-year Treasury auctions intensified the rates-market frenzy. Week SHY
BEARISH
Five-year Treasury yields surged after hotter-than-expected PMI data, with the weak auction requiring buyers to accept a 3.1-basis-point tail. Week Inflation
HIGHER
Persistent goods inflation is holding overall inflation higher after China-driven goods deflation faded, while oil obscures the underlying inflation problem. Month Fiscal & Treasury
HIGHER
Debt and deficits remain a persistent force behind elevated interest rates, with the deficit already priced into the bond market and unlikely to disappear. Year Fed Policy
TIGHTER
The Fed faces roughly a 70% to 75% market-implied chance of raising rates on October 28 unless upcoming data weaken materially. Week TLT
BEARISH
Long-term yields could spike if the Fed remains idle while markets price a rate hike, unless payrolls, CPI, retail sales, or earnings disappoint. Month DXY
BULLISH
Foreign stablecoin adoption could create substantial new dollar demand as people outside the United States use dollar-backed tokens as an entry into dollars. Year BTC
BULLISH
Bitcoin could strengthen if development activity and DeFi infrastructure return, supported by extensive cryptocurrency demand across emerging markets and unstable banking systems. Year TLT
LOWER
Long-term Treasury yields have risen from 3.7% to 5% despite Fed cuts, signaling policy was too easy and bonds need inflation-focused restraint. Year Inflation
HIGHER
Core PCE inflation remains above 3% more than four years after the 2022 peak, leaving the Fed unable to return inflation close to 2%. YearA daily catch-up of talking heads, in fifteen minutes.
Sentiment Graph
Today
SENTIMENT GRAPH
Current Views
ANALYSTDIRECTIONTOPICSUMMARYHORIZONFRESH
Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOME BULLISH Strong
TLT US Treasuries offer an enticing entry point after benchmark yields surged to two-decade highs, marking a first bullish turn in six years. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 2h Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOME BULLISH Strong
TLT Bonds offer a substantial yield cushion at 5.2%, supporting a bullish Treasury position rather than a short-term trade. LEVELS · TARGET 5.2
Year 5h Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOME HIGHER Strong
Growth U.S. growth is accelerating from an already booming 5% GDPNow pace, with September PMI data indicating the economy stepped on the accelerator even harder. LEVELS · TARGET 5
Month 1d Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOME TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy Fed policy faces increasing pressure to tighten, as market-implied odds of an October 28 rate hike rose from 50-50 to roughly 70%. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 1d Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOME BEARISH Moderate
TLT Long-duration Treasuries face downside after accelerating September activity data prompted a violent market reassessment toward a stronger economic outlook. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 1d Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOME HIGHER Strong
Positioning & Vol Bond-market volatility rose sharply this week as hotter-than-expected PMI data and one of the worst five-year Treasury auctions intensified the rates-market frenzy. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 2d Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOME TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy Fed policy expectations turned more hawkish after the PMI release, lifting October hike odds to about 75% and pricing a potential second hike in December. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 2d Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOME BEARISH Strong
SHY Five-year Treasury yields surged after hotter-than-expected PMI data, with the weak auction requiring buyers to accept a 3.1-basis-point tail. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 2d Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOME HIGHER Strong
Inflation Persistent goods inflation is holding overall inflation higher after China-driven goods deflation faded, while oil obscures the underlying inflation problem. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 3d Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOME HIGHER Moderate
Fiscal & Treasury Debt and deficits remain a persistent force behind elevated interest rates, with the deficit already priced into the bond market and unlikely to disappear. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 3d Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOME BEARISH Strong
TLT The 10-year yield could reach 5.50% if the Fed declines to raise rates despite strong growth, persistent inflation, and bond investor selling. LEVELS · TARGET 5.5
Week 3d Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOME TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy The Fed faces roughly a 70% to 75% market-implied chance of raising rates on October 28 unless upcoming data weaken materially. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 3d Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOME HIGHER Strong
Growth US growth was running at a 5% rate in July and August, with September PMI signaling an even stronger acceleration. LEVELS · TARGET 5
Month 3d Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOME BEARISH Moderate
TLT Long-term yields could spike if the Fed remains idle while markets price a rate hike, unless payrolls, CPI, retail sales, or earnings disappoint. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 4d Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOME TIGHTER Moderate
Fed Policy The market could demand a rate hike on October 28 if current probabilities persist, reflecting lost patience with the Fed’s easy policy. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 4d Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOME TIGHTER Moderate
Fed Policy The Fed may hike again on October 28 despite its proximity to the midterms, with markets pricing better than a 50% chance. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 4d Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOME BULLISH Moderate
DXY Foreign stablecoin adoption could create substantial new dollar demand as people outside the United States use dollar-backed tokens as an entry into dollars. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 4d Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOME BULLISH Moderate
BTC Bitcoin could strengthen if development activity and DeFi infrastructure return, supported by extensive cryptocurrency demand across emerging markets and unstable banking systems. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 4d Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOME LOWER Strong
TLT Long-term Treasury yields have risen from 3.7% to 5% despite Fed cuts, signaling policy was too easy and bonds need inflation-focused restraint. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 4d Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOME HIGHER Strong
Inflation Core PCE inflation remains above 3% more than four years after the 2022 peak, leaving the Fed unable to return inflation close to 2%. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 4dWordcloud
Direction By Day
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| Inflation | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
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| Positioning & Vol | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| SHY | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ |
| SLV | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| SPY | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Tariffs & Geopolitics | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · |
| TLT | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ |
| USO | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Sentiment Heatmap
| 15 SEP | 16 SEP | 17 SEP | 18 SEP | 19 SEP | 20 SEP | 21 SEP | 22 SEP | 23 SEP | 24 SEP | 25 SEP | 26 SEP | 27 SEP | 28 SEP | |
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| ANTW | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| BTC | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| DXY | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| Earnings | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
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| GLD | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Growth | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| Housing | ▲ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Inflation | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| Liquidity | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Positioning & Vol | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| SHY | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ |
| SLV | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| SPY | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Tariffs & Geopolitics | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · |
| TLT | ▲ | ▼ | ▲ | ▲ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▲ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ |
| USO | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
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