RATES & FIXED INCOME
Jim Bianco
Bianco Research. Rates, inflation, fixed income, monetary policy and market structure. High-frequency X commentary.
Catch-Up
The picture is unchanged: September policy remains finely balanced, with even an in-line inflation print seen as enough to keep a rate increase in play. The key tension is that if the Fed holds back to reassure markets, the long end could still push yields higher after the initial inflation-data move.
A daily catch-up of talking heads, in fifteen minutes.
Current Views
Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOMELabor supply will shrink as deaths eventually exceed new working-age entrants, while immigration is unlikely to resume before January 2029 at the earliest.
Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOMEAI will expand quantitative analysis by making large datasets faster to process, increasing demand for demonstrable, data-driven research over the future.
Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOMEFederal Reserve has a 50/50 chance of raising rates in September, with consensus inflation or a slight beat likely sufficient to preserve that outcome.
Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOMELong-end bond yields could resume moving higher after an initial inflation-data reaction if the Federal Reserve refrains from raising rates to calm market concern.
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Direction By Day
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Sentiment Heatmap
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| Fed Policy | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ | ▼ |
| TLT | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ | ▼ |
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