Labor
Catch-Up
Labor signals are pulling in different directions: softer employment prints, downward payroll revisions and slower wage growth point to weakening conditions, while the Atlanta Fed tracker still shows firmer wage gains for job switchers. Michael Kantrowitz sees labor surprises keeping the Fed on hold for longer, while Jeffrey Snider highlights a separate household-income squeeze in Japan as living costs outpace pay.
Lance Roberts 
Liz Ann Sonders 
Michael Kantrowitz 
Jeffrey Snider 
Joseph Wang A daily catch-up of talking heads, in fifteen minutes.
Analyst Views on Labor
Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker increased to 3.8% in July, while job switchers continued to record stronger wage gains than job stayers.
Labor market conditions are weakening, with recent employment data softer, prior payrolls revised lower, and wage growth slowing.
Labor-market surprises are leading the tone of Fed communication, supporting a longer period of unchanged policy before hawkishness begins to ease.
Japanese household incomes are not rising nearly enough to offset imported food and energy costs, leaving households squeezed and discretionary spending weaker.
The labor market may be tightening and potentially overheating because the unemployment rate continues trending lower despite a negative payroll print.
Wordcloud
Direction By Day
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| Jeffrey Snider | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ | ▼ |
| Joseph Wang | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | · |
| Lance Roberts | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ |
| Liz Ann Sonders | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
| Michael Kantrowitz | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ |
Sentiment Heatmap
| 01 AUG | 02 AUG | 03 AUG | 04 AUG | 05 AUG | 06 AUG | 07 AUG | 08 AUG | 09 AUG | 10 AUG | 11 AUG | 12 AUG | 13 AUG | 14 AUG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jeffrey Snider | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ | ▼ |
| Joseph Wang | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | · |
| Lance Roberts | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ |
| Liz Ann Sonders | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
| Michael Kantrowitz | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ |