Big Picture · Week of 31 August 2026
What the Talking
Headge Said.
Talking heads on US markets publish on their own YouTube channels and X handles. Headge turns those posts and videos into short, source-backed views of who said it, about what, which direction, and over which horizon, so the catch-up takes fifteen minutes.
The business cycle has not ended because falling wage and interest-expense shares of corporate revenue have supported profit margins despite cumulative inflation and rate hikes.
Eric Basmajian HIGHER
Sentiment Graph
Every portrait is one talking head and every disc is one topic. An edge is one attributed view, inked by that analyst's sentiment. A disc fills with that topic's split of analysts, Bull rising in green from the bottom and Bear in red from the top, Neutral between; its frame is the mean sentiment of the analysts on it, as is the frame around each portrait. Scrub or play the last thirty days to watch views arrive, flip, and lapse. Counts and means only, never a house view.
New Views Today
LatestBullish
The business cycle has not ended because falling wage and interest-expense shares of corporate revenue have supported profit margins despite cumulative inflation and rate hikes.
The dollar remains structurally supported because foreign investors need dollars to access US financial markets, a long-standing position rather than a fresh call.
Oil faces immediate upside pressure as the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, with tanker traffic falling from 45 vessels last year to zero on September 25.
Bearish
Credit downturns are exposing bad loans originated during the boom, suggesting underlying credit quality will deteriorate as previously overlooked risks surface.
The S&P 500 faces crash risk similar to 1973 and 1999/2000, when severely deteriorated market breadth preceded declines of nearly 50%.
U.S. labor market cracks are emerging as rising yields expose broader economic stress beneath weakening consumer demand and housing pressure.
1 Week Horizon
Wang · TLT Hanke · USO Wang · QQQ
Roberts · Positioning & Vol
Parets · SPY
Mancini · SPY
Bianco · SHY Bianco · Positioning & Vol
Ciovacco · HYG Ciovacco · TLT Ciovacco · Positioning & Vol
Newton · RSPT
Shannon · TLT
Keller · JBL Keller · Positioning & Vol Keller · SPY Shannon · MSFT Shannon · BTC Shannon · MAGS Shannon · QQQ Shannon · SPY
Reznicek · PEP Bianco · TLT Bianco · Fed Policy Long-bond yields are surging, with adverse bond-market developments and mounting political pressure likely to keep duration under pressure near term.
1 Month Horizon
Wang · Inflation Wang · SPY Wang · Tariffs & Geopolitics Wang · Growth Wang · Fed Policy DiMartino Booth · LABOR
Brandt · BTC Hanke · Tariffs & Geopolitics Bianco · Fed Policy Ciovacco · SPY Ciovacco · QQQ Ciovacco · DIA Ciovacco · BTC Ciovacco · XLK Ciovacco · XLF Ciovacco · AI Newton · MSFT
Timmer · BTC Roberts · XLU Roberts · IWM Roberts · SPY Shannon · SMH Shannon · IBB Shannon · TLT Inflation concerns are intensifying as energy prices continue rising and diesel reaches all-time highs, prompting expectations for a more hawkish Fed response.
1 Year Horizon
Basmajian · Growth Wang · DXY Snider · HYG Schiff · SPY
Elliott · Growth Parets · Positioning & Vol Schiff · TLT Timmer · BTC Newton · XLK
Lee · Inflation Bianco · Fiscal & Treasury Roberts · TLT
Boockvar · AI Hanke · Growth Brandt · Housing
Dale · Earnings Dale · GLD Dale · BTC Dale · Fed Policy Dale · TLT Dale · Liquidity Dale · AI Dale · SPY Timmer · TLT The business cycle has not ended because falling wage and interest-expense shares of corporate revenue have supported profit margins despite cumulative inflation and rate hikes.
Daily Catch-Up
Latest Video
Healthcare Strength, Small-Cap Strain | Headge Catch-Up, 21 Sep
The day’s talking heads, market moves, and attributed views in one short catch-up.
Watch On YouTubeMoved Since Yesterday
Hanke · Tariffs & Geopolitics China-U.S. trade tensions remain unresolved after only a two-month truce extension, with rare-earth restrictions and Taiwan risks still hanging over markets.
Keller · SPY The S&P 500 would enter a bullish momentum phase if RSI breaks above 60, with price breakouts confirmed by that threshold often leading to sustainable advances.
Roberts · TLT Treasuries offer investors a safe alternative to equities, with bonds repaying full face value at maturity despite price fluctuations during the holding period.
Timmer · TLT Long yields are at the bottom of a broadly diversified 60/20/20 model, lagging Bitcoin, commodities, and the recently improving Mag 7.
Sonders · Positioning & Vol AAII bearish sentiment remains dominant despite the bull-bear spread rebounding to negative 15.4%, indicating persistently cautious investor positioning.
Roberts · AI AI buildout is on track to become the largest infrastructure expansion in US history, creating massive wealth despite eventual winners and losers.
Where They Diverge
Words
Headge Model
Open The ModelAfter a move like this, what happened next? Load a scenario or a talking head's view and read what followed across every asset class, in a century of monthly data.
Method
How Headge Works
- 01
Discover
Talking heads publish on their own YouTube channels and X handles. Headge credits the speaker, never the venue that hosted them.
- 02
Place
Each directional claim lands on one topic, with a horizon and a source. If it cannot be placed confidently, there is No View — not a guess.
- 03
Read
Start with Latest, then the 1 Week, 1 Month, and 1 Year horizons. Open a portrait for the analyst, or a summary for the topic.
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Source-Backed
Every view links to the original post or the exact YouTube moment.
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Closed Catalog
A view occupies one named topic. Headge does not invent a new one to make it fit.
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Mix Is a Count
Bull, Neutral, and Bear are tallies of unique analysts, not a house call.
Questions
- What Is Headge?
- Headge is a daily catch-up of talking heads. It turns public YouTube videos and X posts from tracked market analysts into short, attributed, source-backed views on a closed catalog of topics, so a reader can see who said what, on which market, in which direction, and over which horizon, in about fifteen minutes.
- Where Do the Views Come From?
- Every view comes from a public source: a YouTube video or an X post by the analyst. Headge transcribes or reads the source, places each directional claim on one topic with a horizon, and links back to the original post or the exact video moment. If a claim cannot be placed confidently, the outcome is No View, never a guess.
- Is Headge Investment Advice?
- No. Views are machine paraphrases of what an analyst said in public, attributed to that analyst. Headge has no house view, does not say buy or sell, and does not rank or grade analysts. Paraphrases can be wrong, so check the source before acting on anything.
- What Do Mix and Sentiment Mean?
- Mix is a count of unique analysts who are Bull, Neutral, or Bear on a topic, not a consensus. Sentiment is how strongly an analyst stated a claim, shown as Weak, Moderate, or Strong. Both are counts and means of attributed views, never a score Headge assigns to the market.
- How Fresh Are the Views?
- Sources are ingested through the day and each view carries the time it was recorded. A view stays on the board until the analyst restates or changes it, and it is marked stale after five days. The Front, Latest, and topic pages show the latest view per analyst, topic, and horizon.
- Can an AI Agent Read Headge?
- Yes. The same attributed views are available compact and citable at /for-agents, /llms.txt, /api/agents, and over MCP at /mcp, in Markdown for models and JSON for scripts.