Editorial Representation of Steve Hanke
EDITORIAL REPRESENTATION

MONEY SUPPLY

Steve Hanke

As of 29 September 2026, Steve Hanke holds 20 current views on Headge, 13 Bullish, 7 Bearish. The latest is Bullish on USO over 1 Week. Every view links to the original post or video.

Johns Hopkins. Money supply, currency regimes and inflation forecasting from monetary aggregates.

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VIEWS 17
LAST PUBLISHED 2H AGO

Catch-Up

Generated 08:00 ET

The picture centers on an inflationary, supply-constrained backdrop: conflict around Iran is seen sustaining oil and diesel pressure, while tight tanker capacity and AI-linked copper demand reinforce the commodity case. Tariffs are framed as costly for smaller businesses and ineffective at delivering promised food-price relief, alongside worsening housing affordability, fiscal strain and higher long-term yields. The dollar’s transactional dominance remains intact, but that sits uneasily with concerns that interventionist policy, rising rates and tech debt could weaken growth and expose an AI bubble.

At Generation 11 Bullish · 0 Neutral · 6 Lower
Mix By Horizon
1 Week
1 Month
1 Year
New Views
Tariffs & Geopolitics
LOWER
Trump's beef tariff relief failed to materially reach retail meat prices, with an American Farm Bureau survey showing only a 2% decline versus 25% pitched. Month
USO
BULLISH
Oil remains a long position as older supertankers command record prices above new builds, signaling tight shipping capacity and sustained crude-market strength. Year
USO
BULLISH
Oil prices face continued upside risk as Iran reportedly targeted 19 vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz over the last two days. Week
CPER
BULLISH
Copper demand is accelerating as AI expansion drives a commodity price supercycle, supporting sustained gains across industrial metals markets. Year
Tariffs & Geopolitics
HIGHER
Trump’s tariffs impose compliance burdens that small and medium-sized businesses cannot absorb, increasing pressure on their viability versus larger companies. Year
Inflation
HIGHER
Truck contract rates averaged $3.11 per mile in August, up 29% from a year earlier and the highest level since August 2022, worsening affordability. Month
Held
Housing
LOWER
Housing affordability is deteriorating as the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reaches a one-year high of 7.23%, up from 7.07% a week earlier. Month
Growth
LOWER
US economic conditions will deteriorate under interventionist economic policies, which are characterized as a disaster rather than a temporary setback. Year
USO
BULLISH
Oil should remain long as the Iran conflict and lack of a credible U.S. exit plan sustain upside pressure on crude prices. Month
TLT
BEARISH
Long-duration Treasuries face renewed pressure as the 10-year yield reaches 5.12%, its highest level since 2007, while planned buybacks are unlikely to restore credibility. Week
AI
BEARISH
AI faces bubble risk as projected tech-giant debt issuance reaches $420 billion next year, up 60% from this year. Year
Inflation
HIGHER
Rough rice futures have surged 69% this year as America’s rice harvest heads for its lowest level in 33 years, adding fuel to a commodity price supercycle. Year
TLT
BEARISH
Long-term Treasury prices face pressure as Trump’s interventionist, socialistic economic policies send interest rates sharply higher toward extreme levels. Month
Inflation
HIGHER
US diesel prices have reached a record $6.53 per gallon, up 77% from a year ago, creating an effective diesel tax from the Iran war. Week
DXY
BULLISH
The US dollar’s record 89% share of global foreign-exchange transactions reinforces its dominant role rather than supporting a de-dollarization narrative. Year
Tariffs & Geopolitics
HIGHER
Russia’s counterattacks on warehouses and gas stations across Ukrainian cities signal escalating geopolitical pressure amid continued conflict between Russia and Ukraine. Week
Fiscal & Treasury
HIGHER
US fiscal malpractice is imposing a costly price on the Trump administration, signaling worsening fiscal pressure and larger consequences for markets. Month
Gone
CPER
BULLISH
Copper prices are set to continue higher, supported by Chinese holiday restocking expectations and a near-four-year high Yangshan premium. Week
Fiscal & Treasury
HIGHER
The US fiscal deficit will widen by roughly $1 trillion from the Iran war, funded through taxpayers or Federal Reserve monetization. Year

A daily catch-up of talking heads, in fifteen minutes.

Sentiment Graph

Last 30 Days
Today
SENTIMENT GRAPH

Current Views

ANALYSTDIRECTIONTOPICSUMMARYHORIZONFRESH
Editorial Representation of Steve Hanke Steve Hanke MONEY SUPPLY
BULLISH Strong
USO
Oil faces near-term upside pressure as Strait of Hormuz traffic has effectively collapsed, with one tanker crossing September 28 versus 72 a year earlier. DIRECTION ONLY $USO
Post(Opens in a New Tab)
Agree Disagree
Model
Week 2h
Editorial Representation of Steve Hanke Steve Hanke MONEY SUPPLY
BULLISH Strong
GLD
Gold remains in a secular bull market expected to peak between $6,000 and $7,000 per ounce, a long-standing forecast rather than a fresh call. LEVELS · TARGET 6000 · TARGET 7000 $GLD
Post(Opens in a New Tab)
Agree Disagree
Model
Year 9h
Editorial Representation of Steve Hanke Steve Hanke MONEY SUPPLY
BEARISH Strong
TLT
U.S. government bonds should be avoided, reflecting a strongly negative long-standing stance toward duration rather than a fresh call. DIRECTION ONLY $TLT
Post(Opens in a New Tab)
Agree Disagree
Model
Year 14h
Editorial Representation of Steve Hanke Steve Hanke MONEY SUPPLY
LOWER Moderate
Tariffs & Geopolitics
Trump's beef tariff relief failed to materially reach retail meat prices, with an American Farm Bureau survey showing only a 2% decline versus 25% pitched. DIRECTION ONLY
Post(Opens in a New Tab)
Agree Disagree
Model
Month 18h
Editorial Representation of Steve Hanke Steve Hanke MONEY SUPPLY
BULLISH Strong
USO
Oil remains a long position as older supertankers command record prices above new builds, signaling tight shipping capacity and sustained crude-market strength. DIRECTION ONLY $USO
Post(Opens in a New Tab)
Agree Disagree
Model
Year 23h
Editorial Representation of Steve Hanke Steve Hanke MONEY SUPPLY
BULLISH Strong
USO
Oil remains a long position as Middle East-to-Asia supertanker freight rates have surged 1,100% this year, from roughly $100,000 to $1.2 million per day. DIRECTION ONLY $USO
Post(Opens in a New Tab)
Agree Disagree
Model
Year 1d
Editorial Representation of Steve Hanke Steve Hanke MONEY SUPPLY
BULLISH Strong
USO
Oil prices face continued upside risk as Iran reportedly targeted 19 vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz over the last two days. DIRECTION ONLY $USO
Post(Opens in a New Tab)
Agree Disagree
Model
Week 1d
Editorial Representation of Steve Hanke Steve Hanke MONEY SUPPLY
BULLISH Strong
CPER
Copper demand is accelerating as AI expansion drives a commodity price supercycle, supporting sustained gains across industrial metals markets. DIRECTION ONLY $CPER
Post(Opens in a New Tab)
Agree Disagree
Model
Year 1d
Editorial Representation of Steve Hanke Steve Hanke MONEY SUPPLY
HIGHER Strong
Tariffs & Geopolitics
Trump’s tariffs impose compliance burdens that small and medium-sized businesses cannot absorb, increasing pressure on their viability versus larger companies. DIRECTION ONLY
Post(Opens in a New Tab)
Agree Disagree
Model
Year 1d
Editorial Representation of Steve Hanke Steve Hanke MONEY SUPPLY
HIGHER Strong
Inflation
Truck contract rates averaged $3.11 per mile in August, up 29% from a year earlier and the highest level since August 2022, worsening affordability. DIRECTION ONLY
Post(Opens in a New Tab)
Agree Disagree
Model
Month 1d
Editorial Representation of Steve Hanke Steve Hanke MONEY SUPPLY
LOWER Strong
Housing
Housing affordability is deteriorating as the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reaches a one-year high of 7.23%, up from 7.07% a week earlier. DIRECTION ONLY
Post(Opens in a New Tab)
Agree Disagree
Model
Month 1d
Editorial Representation of Steve Hanke Steve Hanke MONEY SUPPLY
BULLISH Strong
USO
Oil faces immediate upside pressure as the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, with tanker traffic falling from 45 vessels last year to zero on September 25. DIRECTION ONLY $USO
Post(Opens in a New Tab)
Agree Disagree
Model
Week 2d
Editorial Representation of Steve Hanke Steve Hanke MONEY SUPPLY
BEARISH Strong
Tariffs & Geopolitics
China-U.S. trade tensions remain unresolved after only a two-month truce extension, with rare-earth restrictions and Taiwan risks still hanging over markets. DIRECTION ONLY
Post(Opens in a New Tab)
Agree Disagree
Model
Month 2d
Editorial Representation of Steve Hanke Steve Hanke MONEY SUPPLY
HIGHER Strong
Tariffs & Geopolitics
US tariffs on chip imports will worsen an already crippling memory-chip shortage and increase chip prices, making the policy counterproductive. DIRECTION ONLY
Post(Opens in a New Tab)
Agree Disagree
Model
Month 3d
Editorial Representation of Steve Hanke Steve Hanke MONEY SUPPLY
LOWER Strong
Growth
US economic conditions will deteriorate under interventionist economic policies, which are characterized as a disaster rather than a temporary setback. DIRECTION ONLY
Post(Opens in a New Tab)
Agree Disagree
Model
Year 3d
Editorial Representation of Steve Hanke Steve Hanke MONEY SUPPLY
HIGHER Strong
Inflation
US inflation has broken loose, with surging Treasury yields reinforcing a long-standing higher-inflation thesis rather than a fresh call. DIRECTION ONLY
Post(Opens in a New Tab)
Agree Disagree
Model
Month 3d
Editorial Representation of Steve Hanke Steve Hanke MONEY SUPPLY
BULLISH Strong
USO
Oil faces near-term upside pressure as the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, with September 23 tanker traffic falling from 62 last year to one. DIRECTION ONLY $USO
Post(Opens in a New Tab)
Agree Disagree
Model
Week 4d
Editorial Representation of Steve Hanke Steve Hanke MONEY SUPPLY
BULLISH Strong
USO
Oil should remain long as the Iran conflict and lack of a credible U.S. exit plan sustain upside pressure on crude prices. DIRECTION ONLY $USO
Post(Opens in a New Tab)
Agree Disagree
Model
Month 4d
Editorial Representation of Steve Hanke Steve Hanke MONEY SUPPLY
BEARISH Strong
TLT
Long-duration Treasuries face renewed pressure as the 10-year yield reaches 5.12%, its highest level since 2007, while planned buybacks are unlikely to restore credibility. LEVELS · RESISTANCE 5.12 $TLT
Post(Opens in a New Tab)
Agree Disagree
Model
Week 4d
Editorial Representation of Steve Hanke Steve Hanke MONEY SUPPLY
BEARISH Strong
AI
AI faces bubble risk as projected tech-giant debt issuance reaches $420 billion next year, up 60% from this year. DIRECTION ONLY
Post(Opens in a New Tab)
Agree Disagree
Model
Year 4d

Wordcloud

OilPressurePricesRatesEconomicPriceTrump'sAffordabilityCommodityDieselFiscalRussiaBeefConditionsContractCopperCounterattacksDollarFaceHousingInterestIranLevelMalpracticeReachesRecordReliefTariffTariffsTreasuryTruckTrumpYieldAugustConflictCycleEarlierHighest

Direction By Day

15 SEP16 SEP17 SEP18 SEP19 SEP20 SEP21 SEP22 SEP23 SEP24 SEP25 SEP26 SEP27 SEP28 SEP
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Inflation▲▲▲··▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲
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Positioning & Vol▲▲▲▲··········
Tariffs & Geopolitics▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▼▼▼
TLT▼▼▼▼▼▼···▼▼▼▼▼
UNG·▲▲▲▲▲········
USO▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲

Sentiment Heatmap

15 SEP16 SEP17 SEP18 SEP19 SEP20 SEP21 SEP22 SEP23 SEP24 SEP25 SEP26 SEP27 SEP28 SEP
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Positioning & Vol▲▲▲▲··········
Tariffs & Geopolitics▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▼▼▼
TLT▼▼▼▼▼▼···▼▼▼▼▼
UNG·▲▲▲▲▲········
USO▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲▲

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