Ed Yardeni

Government debt will leave younger generations with a substantial fiscal burden as baby boomers retire, an intergenerational transfer rather than a temporary imbalance.

The economy is doing very well as consumers continue spending, with financially strong seniors helping younger households despite an affordability crisis.

The Fed should deliver a quarter-point move soon because it would restore credibility while doing less harm to the economy than continued inaction.

The US economy is expected to remain resilient through the end of the decade, extending record-high real GDP, consumer spending, and capital spending.

Recession risk is expected to remain low through the end of the decade as the US economy continues to withstand repeated stress tests.

Earnings are expected to continue surprising to the upside, supported by an economy that remains resilient through the end of the decade.

The stock market is expected to move higher as continued upside earnings surprises are supported by a resilient US economy.

US economy is expected to remain resilient through the end of the decade, supported by a bulletproof consumer, strong capital spending, and demographic wealth.

Recession risk remains low through the end of the decade as consumer spending, capital investment, and household wealth keep the US economy resilient.

Earnings are expected to continue surprising to the upside as a resilient US economy and consumer spending support higher stock-market performance.

S&P 500 performance is expected to move higher as earnings continue surprising to the upside amid durable consumer spending and economic resilience.

AI capital spending remains a boom that reinforces economic resilience alongside strong consumer spending and substantial household wealth.

Long-duration Treasuries face downside risk if bond vigilantes push yields higher in response to escalating government debt and continued fiscal bailouts.

Inflation faces short-run upward pressure from tariffs, volatile energy prices, and Middle East supply-chain disruptions despite disinflationary unit labor costs.

Fed policy should ease by a quarter point in September, a move expected to improve credibility without materially hurting the economy.

Federal deficits of $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion remain stimulative, with more than $1 trillion in interest payments supporting household income and spending.

Home prices are rising as baby boomers retain their houses rather than downsizing, constraining housing supply amid persistent affordability pressure for younger households.