Macro Viewboard
ANALYSTDIRECTIONTOPICSUMMARYHORIZONFRESH
Growth
26 Views
Peter Schiff AUSTRIAN · GOLD LOWER Strong
Growth Economic growth will slow as Fed rate hikes restrain the economy despite failing to bring inflation under control. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 28m
Mohamed El-Erian FED · POLICY ERROR LOWER Moderate
Growth Balanced economic growth faces sustained headwinds from a policy mix dependent on monetary tightening while fiscal policy lacks restraint. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 8h
Danielle DiMartino Booth LABOR INTERNALS LOWER Moderate
Growth The broader economy must weaken substantially before businesses stop passing through higher energy and freight costs and wage pressures subside. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 17h
Jeffrey Snider DOLLAR LIQUIDITY LOWER Strong
Growth US economic activity was front-loaded by panic buying in August and September, leaving less demand ahead and signaling a worsening contraction rather than an organic recovery. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 22h
Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOME HIGHER Strong
Growth U.S. growth is accelerating from an already booming 5% GDPNow pace, with September PMI data indicating the economy stepped on the accelerator even harder. LEVELS · TARGET 5
Month 1d
Michael Kantrowitz HOPE CYCLE LOWER Moderate
Growth Aggregate corporate and consumer strength is masking broad weakness, with current data likely the cycle’s high point after 2024–26 monetary and fiscal easing. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 1d
Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE HIGHER Strong
Growth The business cycle has not ended because falling wage and interest-expense shares of corporate revenue have supported profit margins despite cumulative inflation and rate hikes. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 1d
Joseph Wang FED PLUMBING HIGHER Weak
Growth US economic growth should remain merely okay rather than surge, with recent GDP near 1.5% and AI demand benefiting foreign producers more. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 2d
Bob Elliott MACRO ALLOCATION LOWER Moderate
Growth Household transfers from securities accounts to cover daily expenses are rising across age groups, signaling a dissaving-driven economy and weaker underlying growth. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 2d
Steve Hanke MONEY SUPPLY LOWER Strong
Growth US economic conditions will deteriorate under interventionist economic policies, which are characterized as a disaster rather than a temporary setback. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 3d
Jurrien Timmer LONG-HORIZON MACRO LOWER Moderate
Growth US economic growth risks being choked off as real funding costs exceed CBO potential growth estimates, unless the AI boom materially lifts future productivity. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 4d
Lance Roberts MACRO · POSITIONING LOWER Moderate
Growth Higher refinancing costs would curb corporate spending, capital investment, and hiring, weakening economic demand and reducing future US growth prospects. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 4d
Liz Ann Sonders US EQUITY MACRO HIGHER Moderate
Growth Kansas City Fed manufacturing activity strengthened in September, with new orders and shipments accelerating above prior readings and expectations. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 4d
Keith McCullough QUAD REGIME · FUNNEL HIGHER Strong
Growth US business growth surged to its fastest pace in more than five years, while job gains accelerated in September. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 4d
Luke Gromen FISCAL DOMINANCE HIGHER Moderate
Growth US federal interest payments of roughly $2 trillion annually could support growth as Boomer households rapidly spend the income, offsetting restrictive-rate effects. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 5d
Darius Dale REGIME NOWCAST · FUNNEL HIGHER Moderate
Growth Real GDP growth is expected to accelerate on a trend basis over the medium term under the consensus Goldilocks outcome for the US economy. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 6d
Andreas Steno Larsen GLOBAL MACRO HIGHER Moderate
Growth South Korean export data continues accelerating, signaling resilient global trade momentum rather than an imminent slowdown in US-relevant growth. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 7d
Chris Ciovacco TREND · CYCLE HIGHER Moderate
Growth Sustained 3% US growth over the long haul would materially improve the debt problem, making current debt levels difficult rather than insurmountable. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 9d
Julien Bittel LIQUIDITY · CYCLES HIGHER Moderate
Growth The US business cycle remains intact despite elevated fuel prices, with domestic energy production cushioning oil-shock pressure and avoiding a stagflationary contraction. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 13d
Charlie Bilello DATA · BREADTH LOWER Moderate
Growth US economic growth will increasingly depend on productivity gains as 25-to-64 population growth slows to 0.3% annually over the next decade. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 15d
Mike Green PASSIVE FLOWS · STRUCTURE LOWER Strong
Growth Household financial stress is nearing a breaking point that could trigger consolidation into shared homes and a catastrophic reduction in consumer spending. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 18d
David Rosenberg RECESSION RISK LOWER Moderate
Growth Real consumer spending will decline as cost shocks reduce real wages, weakening demand after the initial inflation impact. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 25d
David Woo RATES · FX · GEOPOLITICS LOWER Moderate
Growth Growth is slowing, strengthening the case for long bonds and weakening the rationale for additional Federal Reserve tightening. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 40d
Ben Carlson ALLOCATION · BEHAVIOUR HIGHER Moderate
Growth The economy should remain resilient as historically low unemployment and a larger affluent population support sustained consumer spending. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 45d
Michael Howell GLOBAL LIQUIDITY HIGHER Strong
Growth The real economy is stronger and more robust than widely envisioned, with global expansion expected to continue well into 2027 and possibly early 2028. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 46d
Ed Yardeni EARNINGS · PRODUCTIVITY HIGHER Strong
Growth The economy is doing very well as consumers continue spending, with financially strong seniors helping younger households despite an affordability crisis. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 46dRecession Risk
9 Views Jeffrey Snider DOLLAR LIQUIDITY HIGHER Strong
Recession Risk Higher diesel and broader energy costs are expected to force consumer and business cutbacks, as energy shocks typically precede recessions. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 22h Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE LOWER Moderate
Recession Risk Recession odds are declining, helping explain the recent rise in rates alongside an upturn in cyclical growth and elevated inflation. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 3d Danielle DiMartino Booth LABOR INTERNALS HIGHER Strong
Recession Risk Further disinflation is likely to impair purchasing power and ultimately produce additional job losses, raising the risk of a recessionary outcome. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 3d Lance Roberts MACRO · POSITIONING HIGHER Strong
Recession Risk A 10-year Treasury yield of 8% would impose abnormal economic pressure, producing a very deep recession or near-depression. LEVELS · TARGET 8
Year 4d Andreas Steno Larsen GLOBAL MACRO HIGHER Moderate
Recession Risk Yield-curve inversions across several markets are likely to revive widespread recession concerns, raising perceived US downturn risk in the near term. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 4d Luke Gromen FISCAL DOMINANCE HIGHER Moderate
Recession Risk Severe consumer delinquencies resemble fourth-quarter 2006 more than third-quarter 2003 despite the AI capex-driven jobs boom, signaling elevated downturn risk. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 10d Darius Dale REGIME NOWCAST · FUNNEL LOWER Strong
Recession Risk U.S. recession risk remains low amid a resilient, booming economy, consistent with a long-standing position rather than a fresh call. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 12d Bob Elliott MACRO ALLOCATION HIGHER Moderate
Recession Risk Demand destruction will require either substantially higher prices, an equity-bubble burst, or sufficient tightening that produces real economic contraction. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 24d Ed Yardeni EARNINGS · PRODUCTIVITY LOWER Strong
Recession Risk Recession risk is expected to remain low through the end of the decade as the US economy continues to withstand repeated stress tests. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 47dInflation
32 Views Peter Schiff AUSTRIAN · GOLD HIGHER Strong
Inflation Inflation will keep rising because Fed rate hikes will not be sufficient to slow it, while inflation outpaces nominal rates and pushes real rates lower. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 28m
Jason Shapiro POSITIONING · COT HIGHER Moderate
Inflation Inflationary pressures from AI infrastructure buildout and borrowing needs must be absorbed before any eventual productivity-driven disinflation can emerge. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 6h Danielle DiMartino Booth LABOR INTERNALS LOWER Moderate
Inflation Inflation can only be contained by weakening the broader economy enough to curb corporate pass-through and reduce workers’ wage bargaining power. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 17h
Nick Timiraos FED REPORTER · ANCHOR HIGHER Strong
Inflation Tariffs and the war with Iran have raised imported-goods, oil, and diesel costs, adding to price pressures that are pushing rates higher. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 18h Jeffrey Snider DOLLAR LIQUIDITY HIGHER Strong
Inflation Energy, transportation, and raw-material costs are expected to climb further and filter through the economy, sustaining a damaging squeeze on consumers and businesses. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 22h Steve Hanke MONEY SUPPLY HIGHER Strong
Inflation Truck contract rates averaged $3.11 per mile in August, up 29% from a year earlier and the highest level since August 2022, worsening affordability. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 1d Joseph Wang FED PLUMBING HIGHER Strong
Inflation Inflation concerns are intensifying as energy prices continue rising and diesel reaches all-time highs, prompting expectations for a more hawkish Fed response. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 2d
Tom Lee US EQUITY STRATEGY LOWER Strong
Inflation Inflation data should decline over the next six months as PCE methodology changes, tariff effects fade, and oil, housing, and other inputs stop adding pressure. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 3d Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOME HIGHER Strong
Inflation Persistent goods inflation is holding overall inflation higher after China-driven goods deflation faded, while oil obscures the underlying inflation problem. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 3d Bob Elliott MACRO ALLOCATION HIGHER Moderate
Inflation US price growth remains elevated, as strong nominal order growth has translated into only limited gains in real domestic production. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 3d Liz Ann Sonders US EQUITY MACRO HIGHER Moderate
Inflation Manufacturer pricing pressures continue to build as the gap between prices paid and prices received widened in the latest Kansas City Fed survey. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 3d Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE HIGHER Moderate
Inflation Inflation remains too high, even as the recent rise in rates also reflects stronger cyclical growth and lower recession odds. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 3d Lance Roberts MACRO · POSITIONING LOWER Moderate
Inflation Extreme interest rates would weaken economic demand and ultimately reduce inflationary pressure, potentially producing disinflation or deflation across the US economy. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 4d Charlie Bilello DATA · BREADTH HIGHER Strong
Inflation US diesel at a record $6.53 per gallon, up 74% since the Iran war began, will raise freight, farming, shipping, and consumer prices. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 4d Keith McCullough QUAD REGIME · FUNNEL HIGHER Moderate
Inflation US price pressures intensified in September amid a spike in costs despite accelerating business growth and job gains. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 4d Luke Gromen FISCAL DOMINANCE HIGHER Strong
Inflation Inflation could rise alongside interest rates under fiscal dominance, reversing the conventional expectation that higher rates restrain price pressures. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 5d Jurrien Timmer LONG-HORIZON MACRO HIGHER Strong
Inflation AI buildout is inflationary until productivity gains arrive, as corporate demand for equity and debt capital rises at a $3.3 trillion clip. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 5d Darius Dale REGIME NOWCAST · FUNNEL LOWER Moderate
Inflation Core PCE inflation is expected to decelerate on a trend basis over the medium term under the consensus Goldilocks outcome for the US economy. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 6d Ben Carlson ALLOCATION · BEHAVIOUR HIGHER Strong
Inflation Inflation will keep rising from here, reinforcing the case for maintaining inflation hedges as part of a long-term portfolio approach. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 6d
Peter Boockvar DATA REACTION LOWER Moderate
Inflation TIPS inflation expectations fell after the FOMC rate increase, with two-, five-, and 10-year breakevens declining by 8, 6, and 5 basis points. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 11d
Mark Newton INSTITUTIONAL TECHNICALS LOWER Moderate
Inflation Inflation is viewed as transitory, while supply-driven oil prices are expected to decline next year and reduce price pressures. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 12d
Cem Karsan DEALER GAMMA · VOL LOWER Strong
Inflation Core inflation is on track to return to target in about a year as core PCE moving averages decline and converge toward lower CPI readings. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 13d
David Keller TECHNICAL · FINAL BAR HIGHER Moderate
Inflation Higher crude oil prices are expected to feed through to broader prices after a lag, becoming more visible as consumers face rising energy and shipping costs. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 17d Mohamed El-Erian FED · POLICY ERROR HIGHER Moderate
Inflation US core inflation exceeded expectations at 0.3% in August while headline CPI rose 0.4%, contributing to higher yields and increased rate-hike expectations next week. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 17d David Woo RATES · FX · GEOPOLITICS HIGHER Strong
Inflation Inflation is expected to rise during September as converging political, geopolitical, and monetary risks create a worsening market environment. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 17d
Peter Reznicek MARKET PROFILE · ES HIGHER Weak
Inflation Inflation data due tomorrow represents a near-term risk as rising rates and oil remain active market drivers without signs of topping. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 18d Andreas Steno Larsen GLOBAL MACRO LOWER Moderate
Inflation Core CPI is likely to come in soft enough tomorrow to cast doubt on a September rate hike. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 18d Chris Ciovacco TREND · CYCLE HIGHER Moderate
Inflation Inflation remains a more significant current risk than an earnings-driven deflationary event, though market signals do not yet indicate showstopper inflation. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 23d David Rosenberg RECESSION RISK LOWER Strong
Inflation Inflation numbers are expected to surprise to the downside over the next several months as below-potential growth puts downward pressure on aggregate prices. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 38d Michael Howell GLOBAL LIQUIDITY HIGHER Moderate
Inflation US nominal GDP acceleration driven by fiscal spending, AI investment, deglobalization, and inventory building implies both stronger activity growth and higher inflation. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 46d Michael Kantrowitz HOPE CYCLE HIGHER Weak
Inflation Inflation surprises are leading the tone of Fed communication, supporting a longer period of unchanged policy before hawkishness begins to ease. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 46d Ed Yardeni EARNINGS · PRODUCTIVITY HIGHER Moderate
Inflation Inflation faces short-run upward pressure from tariffs, volatile energy prices, and Middle East supply-chain disruptions despite disinflationary unit labor costs. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 48dLabor
18 Views Peter Schiff AUSTRIAN · GOLD LOWER Strong
LABOR The labor market will weaken, with unemployment rising as Fed rate hikes slow the economy without bringing inflation under control. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 28m Jeffrey Snider DOLLAR LIQUIDITY LOWER Strong
LABOR Hiring has essentially stopped, with barely positive ADP growth and the JOLTS hiring rate near cycle lows despite layoffs remaining limited. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 2h Danielle DiMartino Booth LABOR INTERNALS LOWER Moderate
LABOR Workers need to lose enough bargaining power for wages to stop chasing higher energy and freight costs, weakening labor-market conditions. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 17h Liz Ann Sonders US EQUITY MACRO LOWER Moderate
LABOR Continuing jobless claims moved into double-digit year-over-year declines for the week ended September 12, signaling a weaker labor-market trend. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 3d Lance Roberts MACRO · POSITIONING LOWER Moderate
LABOR Higher refinancing costs could force companies to cut spending and payrolls, weakening labor demand and pushing unemployment higher as economic activity slows. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 4d Keith McCullough QUAD REGIME · FUNNEL HIGHER Moderate
LABOR US job gains accelerated in September as business growth surged to its fastest pace in more than five years. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 4d Luke Gromen FISCAL DOMINANCE LOWER Moderate
LABOR Highly skilled trades remain in short supply because pay has failed to keep pace with the 1963 minimum wage equivalent of $57.90 per hour. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 10d Mohamed El-Erian FED · POLICY ERROR HIGHER Strong
LABOR US labor market remains strong, as weekly initial jobless claims came in at 196,000, below the 207,000 consensus forecast. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 11d Joseph Wang FED PLUMBING HIGHER Moderate
LABOR The labor market remains strong, with unemployment holding near 4.1% and the latest headline job creation reading described as very good. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 11d Darius Dale REGIME NOWCAST · FUNNEL HIGHER Moderate
LABOR The U.S. labor market should remain resilient, with unemployment projected at 4.1% through 2029 and growth supporting room for tighter monetary policy. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 12d Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE LOWER Weak
LABOR Residential construction employment has weakened more gradually because declining homebuilder profit margins absorbed much of the housing downturn's pressure instead of large-scale layoffs. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 17d Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOME HIGHER Moderate
LABOR Labor-market tightness is likely to persist as a closed border filters through, eventually showing up in higher wages while unemployment remains near 4.1% to 4.2%. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 20d Steve Hanke MONEY SUPPLY LOWER Moderate
LABOR U.S. August job numbers were not as strong as headline figures suggested after examining the details beneath the surface. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 22d Bob Elliott MACRO ALLOCATION LOWER Moderate
LABOR US labor conditions appear softer than the payroll headline suggests, as weak ADP and contracting Paychex data conflict with the 162,000 payroll gain. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 24d Ben Carlson ALLOCATION · BEHAVIOUR HIGHER Moderate
LABOR The labor market remains resilient, with unemployment falling from 4.5% in November to 4.1% in August and average monthly job gains of 80,000 in 2026. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 24d Andreas Steno Larsen GLOBAL MACRO LOWER Moderate
LABOR Payrolls posted a strong beat, but the immediate labor-market reaction is a fade rather than a signal of sustained strength. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 24d David Rosenberg RECESSION RISK LOWER Strong
LABOR Labor market could become the fourth-quarter surprise, with repeated negative nonfarm payroll prints possible by October or November rather than a one-off decline. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 25d Michael Kantrowitz HOPE CYCLE LOWER Weak
LABOR Labor-market surprises are leading the tone of Fed communication, supporting a longer period of unchanged policy before hawkishness begins to ease. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 46dHousing
18 Views Peter Boockvar DATA REACTION LOWER Strong
Housing Housing mobility remains damaged as households cling to 3–4% mortgages rather than move, while property operators refinance loans priced near 3% at roughly 8%. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 4h Jeffrey Snider DOLLAR LIQUIDITY LOWER Strong
Housing Consumers are cutting back at the margins as real PCE falls further below trend, showing a contraction even without a 2009-style collapse. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 22h Steve Hanke MONEY SUPPLY LOWER Strong
Housing Housing affordability is deteriorating as the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate reaches a one-year high of 7.23%, up from 7.07% a week earlier. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 1d
Peter Brandt CLASSICAL CHARTING LOWER Strong
Housing Housing costs are ridiculous today, while interest rates on 30-year money above 700 basis points remain historically normal and affordable. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 3d Liz Ann Sonders US EQUITY MACRO LOWER Moderate
Housing New-home median sales prices fell 5.8% year over year to $399,700 in August, likely reflecting builder incentives designed to attract buyers. LEVELS · TARGET 399700
Month 3d Mohamed El-Erian FED · POLICY ERROR LOWER Moderate
Housing Rich-world housing markets are vulnerable to higher interest rates because of mortgage structures, household finances, and limited supply. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 3d Peter Schiff AUSTRIAN · GOLD LOWER Moderate
Housing Mortgage rates at 7.1% remain artificially depressed by GSE mortgage purchases, exposing the agencies to losses and distorting housing-market financing. LEVELS · TARGET 7.1
Year 4d Ben Carlson ALLOCATION · BEHAVIOUR LOWER Strong
Housing The housing market faces further damage from 7.3% mortgage rates, which intensify affordability pressure and suppress housing activity. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 4d Danielle DiMartino Booth LABOR INTERNALS LOWER Moderate
Housing Home prices could decline if higher rates force sidelined sellers to capitulate, accelerating housing-market normalization and improving affordability. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 4d Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE LOWER Moderate
Housing Housing activity will face uncomfortable crowding out as government transfer payments comprise an increasing share of income, making economic and inflation slowing more difficult. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 5d Charlie Bilello DATA · BREADTH LOWER Strong
Housing US housing affordability has deteriorated as the income needed for a median-priced home reached a record $126,000, versus median household income of $86,000. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 6d Joseph Wang FED PLUMBING LOWER Moderate
Housing The housing market is deteriorating further as mortgage rates above 7% weaken even high-end real estate, leaving the bottom not yet in. LEVELS · RESISTANCE 7
Month 11d Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOME HIGHER Moderate
Housing Housing market remains resilient despite high mortgage rates, with average US home prices above $410,000 and homeowners still able to raise selling prices. LEVELS · TARGET 410000
Month 18d Keith McCullough QUAD REGIME · FUNNEL LOWER Strong
Housing Housing is a short position, reflecting a bearish view that home prices and broader housing-market conditions will weaken over the medium-term path. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 26d Bob Elliott MACRO ALLOCATION LOWER Moderate
Housing Housing prices remain elevated despite weak fundamentals, but worsening housing-market conditions threaten a cooling trend and a key support for consumer spending. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 29d Darius Dale REGIME NOWCAST · FUNNEL LOWER Strong
Housing Housing remains in recession as interest-rate-sensitive sectors continue declining beneath aggregate statistics distorted by stronger activity among higher-income households. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 32d Lance Roberts MACRO · POSITIONING BULLISH Moderate
Housing Home prices offer better value as higher mortgage rates reduce buyer demand, making the current affordability backdrop a favorable time to purchase a house. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 34d Ed Yardeni EARNINGS · PRODUCTIVITY HIGHER Moderate
Housing Home prices are rising as baby boomers retain their houses rather than downsizing, constraining housing supply amid persistent affordability pressure for younger households. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 48dFed Policy
34 Views Jason Shapiro POSITIONING · COT EASIER Moderate
Fed Policy Fed intervention to support bonds is likely before the election if rates continue rising at their current pace, though market rejection would be dangerous. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 6h Mohamed El-Erian FED · POLICY ERROR TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy Federal Reserve policy is likely to remain overly reliant on monetary tightening as fiscal policy shows no meaningful consolidation. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 8h Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOME TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy Fed policy faces increasing pressure to tighten, as market-implied odds of an October 28 rate hike rose from 50-50 to roughly 70%. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 1d Jeffrey Snider DOLLAR LIQUIDITY TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy Federal Reserve is increasingly expected to raise rates despite subdued inflation expectations, with the policy path likely to reverse as growth weakens. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 1d Joseph Wang FED PLUMBING TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy Fed policy is likely to become more hawkish, with markets pricing further hikes and potentially rates near 5% held until inflation falls. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 2d Darius Dale REGIME NOWCAST · FUNNEL TIGHTER Moderate
Fed Policy The Federal Reserve may need to hike two to three more times to truncate its accommodative policy bias if rising Treasury yields are not capped by intervention. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 3d Julien Bittel LIQUIDITY · CYCLES EASIER Moderate
Fed Policy Fed policy should pause and then reverse toward easing if lower crude cools headline inflation and gives Warsh cover after demonstrating bond-market credibility. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 3d Danielle DiMartino Booth LABOR INTERNALS TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy The Fed faces pressure for further rate hikes, with markets pricing three subsequent increases as the two-year Treasury trades near 4.73%. LEVELS · TARGET 4.73
Month 3d Jurrien Timmer LONG-HORIZON MACRO TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy The market expects several more Fed rate hikes, with the SOFR curve considerably more hawkish than the Fed’s own scattered dot plot. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 4d Mike Green PASSIVE FLOWS · STRUCTURE EASIER Moderate
Fed Policy Fed policy should not require rate hikes solely to preserve credibility, implying a less restrictive path than hawkish calls anticipate. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 4d Luke Gromen FISCAL DOMINANCE EASIER Strong
Fed Policy Fed policy should cut rates and interest on bank reserves to zero while funding debt buybacks with 0% Treasury bills. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 5d Ben Carlson ALLOCATION · BEHAVIOUR TIGHTER Moderate
Fed Policy The Fed will probably keep hiking rates, raising consumer borrowing costs without meaningfully lowering inflation or slowing AI hyperscaler spending. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 5d Lance Roberts MACRO · POSITIONING TIGHTER Moderate
Fed Policy The Fed is expected to deliver two more rate hikes before cutting rates, reflecting a tightening cycle that risks breaking something in the economy. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 7d Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE EASIER Strong
Fed Policy Real Fed funds rates have averaged progressively lower across expansions and remained negative since 2008, with the current expansion averaging negative 0.8% since 2020. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 7d David Keller TECHNICAL · FINAL BAR TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy Fed policy is likely to remain tighter, with additional rate increases possible over the next 6 to 12 months as two-year yields continue rising. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 7d Bob Elliott MACRO ALLOCATION TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy Major developed-market central banks are behind the curve, tolerating above-target inflation and relying on hopeful disinflation rather than proactive tightening. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 10d Keith McCullough QUAD REGIME · FUNNEL TIGHTER Moderate
Fed Policy Federal Reserve is persistently late to recognize phase transitions, implying policy may remain too restrictive as market conditions shift. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 12d Charlie Bilello DATA · BREADTH TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy The Fed raised rates 25 basis points to 3.75%-4.00%, its first increase since 2023, and signaled further hikes before year-end. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 12d Nick Timiraos FED REPORTER · ANCHOR TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy The Fed unanimously raised rates by 25 basis points, while most officials projected one additional rate hike before year-end. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 12d Tom Lee US EQUITY STRATEGY EASIER Strong
Fed Policy A Fed rate hike announced today would be a policy error, favoring a less restrictive policy outcome instead. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 12d Mark Newton INSTITUTIONAL TECHNICALS TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy The Fed is expected to deliver a 25-basis-point rate hike tomorrow, though the move is likely one and done rather than three hikes priced by the curve. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 12d
Brent Kochuba GAMMA · 0DTE · FUNNEL TIGHTER Moderate
Fed Policy FOMC rate hike is priced, but the dot plot remains unpriced and creates outlier risk into the meeting. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 12d Cem Karsan DEALER GAMMA · VOL EASIER Strong
Fed Policy Fed policy should become more dovish as inflation data and forecasts decline, while a hike would represent an incoherent reaction function. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 13d Peter Schiff AUSTRIAN · GOLD EASIER Moderate
Fed Policy Fed policy will likely pivot toward fighting a recession before inflation is contained, even if easier policy exacerbates the inflation problem. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 13d Chris Ciovacco TREND · CYCLE TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy Fed funds futures price a 25-basis-point hike at roughly 87%, making a hold at Wednesday’s FOMC meeting a significant surprise. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 16d Peter Reznicek MARKET PROFILE · ES TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy Federal Reserve futures imply roughly a 90% chance of a rate hike next Wednesday, making no increase a major surprise. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 16d Liz Ann Sonders US EQUITY MACRO TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy Fed rate-hike odds have risen above 85%, signaling a high probability of tighter monetary policy in the near term. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 17d Michael Kantrowitz HOPE CYCLE TIGHTER Moderate
Fed Policy Fed policy remains hawkish as higher rates, rising oil, and tightening financial conditions continue pressuring S&P 500 valuation multiples. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 17d Andreas Steno Larsen GLOBAL MACRO EASIER Moderate
Fed Policy A soft core CPI print tomorrow is likely to put a September rate hike in doubt, supporting an easier policy outlook. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 18d David Woo RATES · FX · GEOPOLITICS TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy Oil spike kills monetary easing expectations rapidly, creating a tail-risk transmission that pressures consumers, earnings, and the AI trade. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 20d David Rosenberg RECESSION RISK EASIER Strong
Fed Policy The Fed’s next move is more likely to be a rate cut than another increase, contingent on incoming economic data. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 38d Michael Howell GLOBAL LIQUIDITY HIGHER Strong
Fed Policy US policy rates are likely to rise within months as elevated two-year Treasury yields signal tightening and strong nominal growth pushes market rates higher. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 45d Peter Boockvar DATA REACTION TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy Bank of Japan likely has political clearance for a near-term rate hike, with the next move potentially arriving in September or October. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 46d Ed Yardeni EARNINGS · PRODUCTIVITY EASIER Moderate
Fed Policy The Fed should deliver a quarter-point move soon because it would restore credibility while doing less harm to the economy than continued inaction. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 46dLiquidity
16 Views Darius Dale REGIME NOWCAST · FUNNEL HIGHER Strong
Liquidity Asset markets are likely headed for a positive liquidity supply shock in 2027 as investors remain inadequately positioned for key risks to dissipate. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 35m Andreas Steno Larsen GLOBAL MACRO LOWER Moderate
Liquidity AI agents could trigger a bank run by moving household cash into 3–5% accounts, stripping banks of cheap deposits and reducing available liquidity. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 1d Julien Bittel LIQUIDITY · CYCLES HIGHER Strong
Liquidity Liquidity should rise as lower oil, rates, and the dollar reduce hedging demand, release capital, and allow banks to lend against freed balance-sheet capacity. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 3d Jeffrey Snider DOLLAR LIQUIDITY LOWER Strong
Liquidity Global banks will become more selective as volatility and economic risk rise, making dollar credit lines more expensive, shorter dated, and potentially smaller. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 3d Danielle DiMartino Booth LABOR INTERNALS LOWER Strong
Liquidity Credit conditions are tightening as banks absorb commercial real estate losses, clamp down on credit card lending standards, and restrict consumer lending. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 3d Charlie Bilello DATA · BREADTH HIGHER Strong
Liquidity US money supply grew 5.7% over the last year, the largest year-over-year increase since June 2022, signaling that money printing has resumed. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 6d Lance Roberts MACRO · POSITIONING LOWER Strong
Liquidity Federal Reserve balance-sheet tightening is extracting liquidity from equities after years of zero rates and quantitative easing pushed capital into financial markets. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 14d Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOME EASIER Strong
Liquidity Monetary conditions are too easy, creating a tailwind for broad commodity markets as Fed easing continues to support demand. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 16d Steve Hanke MONEY SUPPLY HIGHER Strong
Liquidity US Divisia M4 money supply has surged, helping bring bond vigilantes out of hibernation alongside Trump’s tariffs and war on Iran. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 17d Cem Karsan DEALER GAMMA · VOL HIGHER Moderate
Liquidity Trump administration policy is positioned to inject a massive amount of liquidity, potentially pumping markets ahead of the midterm elections. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 19d Luke Gromen FISCAL DOMINANCE HIGHER Moderate
Liquidity US reshoring and competition with China could require a wartime-style policy response, including yield-curve control and a sharply expanded Fed balance sheet. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 27d Peter Schiff AUSTRIAN · GOLD HIGHER Moderate
Liquidity The Fed is growing its balance sheet, adding liquidity even as persistent inflation would warrant a more decisive policy response. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 27d Joseph Wang FED PLUMBING HIGHER Strong
Liquidity Draining the TGA would boost bank reserve assets and deposit liabilities, unbottling cash previously created but locked away in the Treasury General Account. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 35d Mark Newton INSTITUTIONAL TECHNICALS HIGHER Moderate
Liquidity Treasury buyback expansion has provided a cushion to long-dated Treasuries and fueled liquidity optimism across commodities, precious metals and crypto. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 38d Jurrien Timmer LONG-HORIZON MACRO HIGHER Moderate
Liquidity Fund flows into equity and bond funds and ETFs remain robust, with levels now exceeding those seen in 2021. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 39d Michael Howell GLOBAL LIQUIDITY LOWER Strong
Liquidity Global liquidity growth has peaked and is rolling over, with the cycle unlikely to bottom before mid-to-late 2027 despite elevated absolute liquidity levels. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 45dFiscal & Treasury
26 Views Peter Schiff AUSTRIAN · GOLD HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury Budget deficits will rise as Fed rate hikes slow the economy, increase unemployment, and raise the government’s financing burden. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 28m Jason Shapiro POSITIONING · COT HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury Government deficits and borrowing needs are unlikely to face meaningful fiscal restraint until a crisis forces action, keeping debt pressures elevated. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 6h Nick Timiraos FED REPORTER · ANCHOR HIGHER Moderate
Fiscal & Treasury Federal fiscal restraint has not arrived, leaving deficits elevated as Washington's agenda adds to longer-term inflation and interest-rate pressures. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 18h Luke Gromen FISCAL DOMINANCE HIGHER Weak
Fiscal & Treasury US fiscal pressures are becoming increasingly important for markets, reinforcing a long-standing fiscal-dominance thesis rather than a fresh call. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 1d Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE HIGHER Weak
Fiscal & Treasury Government deficits influence corporate profits alongside household savings, corporate investment, trade balances, wars, and recessions rather than determining profit outcomes alone. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 1d Jim Bianco RATES & FIXED INCOME HIGHER Moderate
Fiscal & Treasury Debt and deficits remain a persistent force behind elevated interest rates, with the deficit already priced into the bond market and unlikely to disappear. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 3d Joseph Wang FED PLUMBING HIGHER Moderate
Fiscal & Treasury Treasury issuance is not crowding out markets because investor balance sheets can expand through leverage to absorb supply without more negative swap spreads. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 3d Jurrien Timmer LONG-HORIZON MACRO HIGHER Moderate
Fiscal & Treasury The rising debt burden faces worsening sustainability risks as real funding costs exceed potential growth, raising pressure from debt service and financing needs. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 4d Steve Hanke MONEY SUPPLY HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury US fiscal malpractice is imposing a costly price on the Trump administration, signaling worsening fiscal pressure and larger consequences for markets. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 5d Chris Ciovacco TREND · CYCLE HIGHER Moderate
Fiscal & Treasury US deficits near 6% of GDP and massive debt levels remain a difficult long-term problem, though not necessarily an immediate crisis. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 9d Darius Dale REGIME NOWCAST · FUNNEL HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury A policy-induced slowdown would expand the budget deficit through higher net interest costs and slower tax receipts, constraining further Federal Reserve tightening. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 11d Peter Boockvar DATA REACTION HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury US Treasury financing costs will rise by another $18 billion over 12 months after the 25-basis-point increase, amid continued reliance on short-term issuance. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 11d Danielle DiMartino Booth LABOR INTERNALS HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury U.S. borrowing costs will rise as the government relies heavily on Treasury bills, leaving its financing directly exposed to Federal Reserve policy. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 11d Michael Kantrowitz HOPE CYCLE HIGHER Weak
Fiscal & Treasury The deficit is no longer steering markets and is instead along for the ride, relegated to the trunk. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 12d Charlie Bilello DATA · BREADTH HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury US trillion-dollar deficits, exploding national debt, and money printing reflect disappearing fiscal discipline and leave Americans bearing the resulting costs. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 15d Mohamed El-Erian FED · POLICY ERROR HIGHER Moderate
Fiscal & Treasury Treasury financing demand is increasingly outstripping supply, driving a surge in yields and making this week’s Federal Reserve meeting unusually difficult. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 15d Keith McCullough QUAD REGIME · FUNNEL HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury US taxpayer-funded $1 trillion deficit spending would materially expand fiscal outlays, including proposed payments of $5,000 per American. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 18d Mike Green PASSIVE FLOWS · STRUCTURE HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury US fiscal stress remains a serious and dangerous situation, while Treasury debt-management actions can only affect government interest costs rather than taxes or spending. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 18d Cem Karsan DEALER GAMMA · VOL LOWER Moderate
Fiscal & Treasury Fiscal discipline messaging around a prospective Warsh policy shift is an elaborate good-cop, bad-cop routine rather than a genuine commitment to austerity. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 32d Liz Ann Sonders US EQUITY MACRO HIGHER Moderate
Fiscal & Treasury Fiscal-policy concerns have revived as Treasury ramps up buybacks of long-dated government debt, contributing to the return of the debasement trade. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 35d David Woo RATES · FX · GEOPOLITICS HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury America’s $2T+ deficit, alongside foreign Treasury selling and AI investment, is draining savings and increasing Treasury supply pressure. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 39d Ben Carlson ALLOCATION · BEHAVIOUR LOWER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury US government debt is unlikely to trigger a crisis despite continued spending, reserve-currency status, and persistent Treasury demand. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 39d Jeffrey Snider DOLLAR LIQUIDITY HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury US debt has likely crossed $40 trillion and continues rising, while deficit-driven spending and interest costs remain the larger problem than Treasury market rates. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 39d Tom Lee US EQUITY STRATEGY HIGHER Moderate
Fiscal & Treasury The deficit is growing despite a booming economy, leaving fiscal imbalances unusually large even as economic expansion remains strong. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 41d Ed Yardeni EARNINGS · PRODUCTIVITY HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury Government debt will leave younger generations with a substantial fiscal burden as baby boomers retire, an intergenerational transfer rather than a temporary imbalance. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 46d Michael Howell GLOBAL LIQUIDITY HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury Treasury bill funding could rise toward 30% of outstanding US federal debt, materially increasing short-dated issuance from already elevated levels. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 46d