GLOBAL LIQUIDITY
Michael Howell
As of 29 September 2026, Michael Howell holds 20 current views on Headge, 9 Bullish, 11 Bearish. The latest is Lower on Liquidity over 1 Year. Every view links to the original post or video.
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VIEWS 0
LAST PUBLISHED 46D AGO
Catch-Up
MONDAY 28 SEPTEMBER 2026 · US MARKETS
0 current views. 0 bull, 0 neutral, 0 bear. No current view.
Current Mix 0 Bull · 0 Neutral · 0 Bear
Mix By Horizon
1 Week
0 BULL 0 NEUT 0 BEAR
1 Month
0 BULL 0 NEUT 0 BEAR
1 Year
0 BULL 0 NEUT 0 BEAR
A daily catch-up of talking heads, in fifteen minutes.
Sentiment Graph
Today
SENTIMENT GRAPH
Current Views
ANALYSTDIRECTIONTOPICSUMMARYHORIZONFRESH
Michael Howell GLOBAL LIQUIDITY LOWER Strong
Liquidity Global liquidity growth has peaked and is rolling over, with the cycle unlikely to bottom before mid-to-late 2027 despite elevated absolute liquidity levels. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 46d Michael Howell GLOBAL LIQUIDITY HIGHER Strong
Fed Policy US policy rates are likely to rise within months as elevated two-year Treasury yields signal tightening and strong nominal growth pushes market rates higher. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 46d Michael Howell GLOBAL LIQUIDITY BEARISH Strong
SPY Risk asset markets face a difficult period as stronger economic activity, fading liquidity and prospective Federal Reserve tightening recreate conditions unfavorable for equities. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 46d Michael Howell GLOBAL LIQUIDITY BULLISH Strong
GLD Gold should continue attracting demand as China expands liquidity to manage domestic debt, with Chinese monetary conditions increasingly setting global gold pricing. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 46d Michael Howell GLOBAL LIQUIDITY BEARISH Moderate
BTC Crypto remains under pressure as global and Federal Reserve liquidity fade, while gold benefits from China-driven liquidity expansion and outperforms monetary hedges. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 46d Michael Howell GLOBAL LIQUIDITY HIGHER Strong
CPER Commodity demand should strengthen through 2027 as global real-economy expansion continues well after the liquidity peak, favoring industrial commodities over financial assets. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 46d Michael Howell GLOBAL LIQUIDITY BEARISH Strong
TLT Ten-year Treasury yields could test 6% in the not-too-distant future as accelerating nominal GDP growth pulls underlying US interest rates higher. LEVELS · TARGET 6
Month 46d Michael Howell GLOBAL LIQUIDITY BEARISH Moderate
DXY The dollar would weaken if Treasury funding shifts further toward bills, a policy response that would also amplify front-end liquidity pressures. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 46d Michael Howell GLOBAL LIQUIDITY BULLISH Strong
USO Oil prices are likely to rise significantly as strong real-economy activity boosts commodity demand and the gold-oil ratio moves toward long-run mean reversion. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 46d Michael Howell GLOBAL LIQUIDITY LOWER Strong
Liquidity Global liquidity growth has peaked and is rolling over, with the cycle unlikely to bottom before mid-to-late 2027 despite elevated absolute liquidity levels. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 46d Michael Howell GLOBAL LIQUIDITY HIGHER Strong
Growth The real economy is stronger and more robust than widely envisioned, with global expansion expected to continue well into 2027 and possibly early 2028. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 46d Michael Howell GLOBAL LIQUIDITY TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy Federal Reserve policy rates are heading higher within the next few months, with the two-year Treasury yield already signaling a rate hike. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 46d Michael Howell GLOBAL LIQUIDITY BEARISH Strong
TLT The 10-year Treasury yield could test 6% in the not-too-distant future as accelerating nominal GDP and fiscal spending pull bond yields higher. LEVELS · TARGET 6
Month 46d Michael Howell GLOBAL LIQUIDITY BEARISH Moderate
DXY Greater Treasury bill funding could prove significantly negative for the dollar, as short-dated debt issuance rises toward levels last seen in the early 2000s. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 46d Michael Howell GLOBAL LIQUIDITY BULLISH Strong
GLD Gold prices in US dollar terms are set to skyrocket over the medium term as China expands liquidity and advanced economies monetize growing debt burdens. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 46d Michael Howell GLOBAL LIQUIDITY BULLISH Strong
USO Oil prices are likely to rise significantly as strong real-economy activity lifts commodity demand and the gold-oil ratio mean-reverts. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 46d Michael Howell GLOBAL LIQUIDITY BEARISH Strong
BTC Bitcoin remains under pressure as global liquidity fades and Federal Reserve tightening approaches, while gold continues to outperform on China-driven liquidity expansion. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 46d Michael Howell GLOBAL LIQUIDITY BEARISH Moderate
SPY Rising bond yields and potentially higher energy prices warrant reduced equity beta exposure, as the liquidity downswing creates a difficult environment for risk assets. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 46d Michael Howell GLOBAL LIQUIDITY HIGHER Moderate
Inflation US nominal GDP acceleration driven by fiscal spending, AI investment, deglobalization, and inventory building implies both stronger activity growth and higher inflation. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 46d Michael Howell GLOBAL LIQUIDITY HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury Treasury bill funding could rise toward 30% of outstanding US federal debt, materially increasing short-dated issuance from already elevated levels. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 46d
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