Editorial Representation of Eric Basmajian
EDITORIAL REPRESENTATION

BUSINESS CYCLE

Eric Basmajian

As of 28 September 2026, Eric Basmajian holds 20 current views on Headge, 9 Bullish, 11 Bearish. The latest is Higher on Fiscal & Treasury over 1 Year. Every view links to the original post or video.

EPB Research. Business-cycle leading indicators, housing, employment, rates and turning points.

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VIEWS 7
LAST PUBLISHED 1D AGO

Catch-Up

Generated 08:00 ET

Cyclical growth appears to be improving, with resilient corporate margins and rising real profits undermining an imminent recession or 2001-style bubble comparison. That strength is helping keep inflation elevated and rates higher, while deficits are framed as one influence on profits rather than a standalone determinant. The longer-term tension is housing, where rising transfer payments could crowd out activity and make both growth and inflation harder to slow.

At Generation 5 Higher · 0 Neutral · 2 Lower
Mix By Horizon
1 Week
1 Month
1 Year
New Views
Fiscal & Treasury
HIGHER
Government deficits influence corporate profits alongside household savings, corporate investment, trade balances, wars, and recessions rather than determining profit outcomes alone. Year
Held
Growth
HIGHER
The business cycle has not ended because falling wage and interest-expense shares of corporate revenue have supported profit margins despite cumulative inflation and rate hikes. Year
Recession Risk
LOWER
Recession odds are declining, helping explain the recent rise in rates alongside an upturn in cyclical growth and elevated inflation. Month
Growth
HIGHER
Cyclical growth is improving, contributing to the recent rise in rates alongside persistently elevated inflation and reduced recession odds. Month
Inflation
HIGHER
Inflation remains too high, even as the recent rise in rates also reflects stronger cyclical growth and lower recession odds. Month
Earnings
HIGHER
Real corporate profits are still rising, making a bubble comparison to the three years preceding the 2001 recession harder to sustain. Year
Housing
LOWER
Housing activity will face uncomfortable crowding out as government transfer payments comprise an increasing share of income, making economic and inflation slowing more difficult. Year

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Sentiment Graph

Last 30 Days
Today
SENTIMENT GRAPH

Current Views

ANALYSTDIRECTIONTOPICSUMMARYHORIZONFRESH
Editorial Representation of Eric Basmajian Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE
HIGHER Weak
Fiscal & Treasury
Government deficits influence corporate profits alongside household savings, corporate investment, trade balances, wars, and recessions rather than determining profit outcomes alone. DIRECTION ONLY
Post(Opens in a New Tab)
Agree Disagree
Model
Year 1d
Editorial Representation of Eric Basmajian Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE
HIGHER Strong
Growth
The business cycle has not ended because falling wage and interest-expense shares of corporate revenue have supported profit margins despite cumulative inflation and rate hikes. DIRECTION ONLY
Post(Opens in a New Tab)
Agree Disagree
Model
Year 2d
Editorial Representation of Eric Basmajian Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE
LOWER Moderate
Recession Risk
Recession odds are declining, helping explain the recent rise in rates alongside an upturn in cyclical growth and elevated inflation. DIRECTION ONLY
Post(Opens in a New Tab)
Agree Disagree
Model
Month 4d
Editorial Representation of Eric Basmajian Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE
HIGHER Moderate
Growth
Cyclical growth is improving, contributing to the recent rise in rates alongside persistently elevated inflation and reduced recession odds. DIRECTION ONLY
Post(Opens in a New Tab)
Agree Disagree
Model
Month 4d
Editorial Representation of Eric Basmajian Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE
HIGHER Moderate
Inflation
Inflation remains too high, even as the recent rise in rates also reflects stronger cyclical growth and lower recession odds. DIRECTION ONLY
Post(Opens in a New Tab)
Agree Disagree
Model
Month 4d
Editorial Representation of Eric Basmajian Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE
HIGHER Moderate
Earnings
Real corporate profits are still rising, making a bubble comparison to the three years preceding the 2001 recession harder to sustain. DIRECTION ONLY
Post(Opens in a New Tab)
Agree Disagree
Model
Year 4d
Editorial Representation of Eric Basmajian Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE
LOWER Moderate
Housing
Housing activity will face uncomfortable crowding out as government transfer payments comprise an increasing share of income, making economic and inflation slowing more difficult. DIRECTION ONLY
Post(Opens in a New Tab)
Agree Disagree
Model
Year 5d
Editorial Representation of Eric Basmajian Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE
LOWER Moderate
Growth
Leading and cyclical data were 1–2 standard deviations weak in summer 2007, even after accounting for first-release data, signaling deteriorating economic momentum. DIRECTION ONLY
Post(Opens in a New Tab)
Agree Disagree
Model
Year 5d
Editorial Representation of Eric Basmajian Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE
LOWER Moderate
Recession Risk
Recession risk is currently low despite worsening conditions on the ground, as the economy is increasingly split between record profits and falling paychecks. DIRECTION ONLY
Post(Opens in a New Tab)
Agree Disagree
Model
Month 7d
Editorial Representation of Eric Basmajian Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE
EASIER Strong
Fed Policy
Real Fed funds rates have averaged progressively lower across expansions and remained negative since 2008, with the current expansion averaging negative 0.8% since 2020. DIRECTION ONLY
YouTube · 00:21(Opens in a New Tab)
Agree Disagree
Model
Year 7d
Editorial Representation of Eric Basmajian Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE
LOWER Moderate
Recession Risk
Recession risk remains limited because corporate profit margins are still exceptionally high, though sustained profitability compression would be needed to trigger job cuts and capex pullbacks. DIRECTION ONLY
Post(Opens in a New Tab)
Agree Disagree
Model
Month 8d
Editorial Representation of Eric Basmajian Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE
HIGHER Moderate
Growth
Cyclical GDP continues to advance as durable goods consumption improves and business equipment investment remains strong, despite ongoing housing-sector weakness. DIRECTION ONLY
YouTube · 04:47(Opens in a New Tab)
Agree Disagree
Model
Week 11d
Editorial Representation of Eric Basmajian Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE
HIGHER Moderate
Fiscal & Treasury
Rising government debt without stronger productive capacity can drag on real growth as more income and resources are devoted to servicing existing obligations. DIRECTION ONLY
YouTube · 03:29(Opens in a New Tab)
Agree Disagree
Model
Year 11d
Editorial Representation of Eric Basmajian Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE
TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy
Economy has become less able to sustain positive real interest rates for long periods as debt levels increased and real growth slowed. DIRECTION ONLY
YouTube · 03:47(Opens in a New Tab)
Agree Disagree
Model
Year 11d
Editorial Representation of Eric Basmajian Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE
LOWER Moderate
Housing
Housing sector remains weak even as durable goods consumption improves and business equipment investment stays strong in the broader cyclical economy. DIRECTION ONLY
YouTube · 04:47(Opens in a New Tab)
Agree Disagree
Model
Week 11d
Editorial Representation of Eric Basmajian Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE
LOWER Moderate
Recession Risk
Recession risk remains low in the near term because the cyclical economy is improving, with stronger durable goods consumption and business equipment investment. DIRECTION ONLY
YouTube · 04:47(Opens in a New Tab)
Agree Disagree
Model
Week 11d
Editorial Representation of Eric Basmajian Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE
LOWER Strong
Housing
Housing remains in an ongoing downturn that additional rate hikes will eventually collide with as high debt limits sustainable policy rates. DIRECTION ONLY
Post(Opens in a New Tab)
Agree Disagree
Model
Year 14d
Editorial Representation of Eric Basmajian Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE
LOWER Moderate
Recession Risk
Recession risk remains low because accelerating cyclical momentum continues to support the economy despite the burden of higher interest rates. DIRECTION ONLY
Post(Opens in a New Tab)
Agree Disagree
Model
Month 14d
Editorial Representation of Eric Basmajian Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE
HIGHER Strong
Growth
The economy has accelerating cyclical momentum and can likely handle higher interest rates in the short term without derailing current expansion. DIRECTION ONLY
Post(Opens in a New Tab)
Agree Disagree
Model
Week 14d
Editorial Representation of Eric Basmajian Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE
TIGHTER Moderate
Fed Policy
Federal Reserve tightening is not a near-term policy mistake while cyclical employment growth rises and the 3M10Y curve stands at positive 100 basis points. DIRECTION ONLY
Post(Opens in a New Tab)
Agree Disagree
Model
Month 14d

Wordcloud

InflationCorporateRecessionCyclicalGrowthOddsGovernmentProfitsAlongsideBusinessCycleDeficitsHousingRatesRealRecentRiseElevatedMakingProfitSectorActivityAloneBalancesBubbleComparisonCompriseContributingCrowdingCumulativeDecliningDespiteDifficultEconomicEndedExplainFaceFallingHarder

Direction By Day

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Sentiment Heatmap

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