Editorial Representation of Eric Basmajian
EDITORIAL REPRESENTATION

BUSINESS CYCLE

Eric Basmajian

EPB Research. Business-cycle leading indicators, housing, employment, rates and turning points.

VIEWS 5
LAST PUBLISHED 1D AGO

Catch-Up

Generated 08:00 ET

The picture is unchanged: deficit-funded transfers and consumption continue to underpin profits and a consumption-led economy. But the underlying growth quality looks weaker, with net investment lagging headline measures and AI spending shifting toward short-lived assets, potentially deepening housing and infrastructure underinvestment. The AI boom also leaves a widening gap between market strength and the wealth gains felt by most households.

At Generation 2 Higher · 0 Neutral · 3 Lower
Mix By Horizon
1 Week
1 Month
1 Year
Held
Growth
LOWER
Net investment matters more than gross investment for assessing economic growth, indicating a less constructive underlying growth picture than headline investment measures imply. Year
AI
BEARISH
AI boom is worsening the disconnect between record stock-market levels and the limited improvement most Americans feel in their personal wealth. Month
Fiscal & Treasury
HIGHER
Federal budget deficits near 7% of GDP fund household transfers and consumption rather than productive investment, supporting a persistently consumption-led economy. Year
Earnings
HIGHER
Corporate profits retain an extremely strong support base while government deficits grow and borrowing continues funding transfer payments that flow into consumption. Year
AI
LOWER
AI investment reallocates spending from long-lived assets toward shorter-lived assets, raising depreciation almost as quickly as current investment and worsening underbuilt housing and infrastructure. Year

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Current Views

ANALYSTDIRECTIONTOPICSUMMARYHORIZONFRESH
Editorial Representation of Eric Basmajian Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE
LOWER Weak
Growth
Net investment matters more than gross investment for assessing economic growth, indicating a less constructive underlying growth picture than headline investment measures imply. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 1d
Editorial Representation of Eric Basmajian Eric Basmajian LOWER Weak
Growth Year 1d

Net investment matters more than gross investment for assessing economic growth, indicating a less constructive underlying growth picture than headline investment measures imply.

Editorial Representation of Eric Basmajian Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE
BEARISH Moderate
AI
AI boom is worsening the disconnect between record stock-market levels and the limited improvement most Americans feel in their personal wealth. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 2d
Editorial Representation of Eric Basmajian Eric Basmajian BEARISH Moderate
AI Month 2d

AI boom is worsening the disconnect between record stock-market levels and the limited improvement most Americans feel in their personal wealth.

Editorial Representation of Eric Basmajian Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE
LOWER Strong
Growth
Net investment is near its lowest GDP share outside the 2009 crash and could turn negative again during expansion years if the current trend continues. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 2d
Editorial Representation of Eric Basmajian Eric Basmajian LOWER Strong
Growth Year 2d

Net investment is near its lowest GDP share outside the 2009 crash and could turn negative again during expansion years if the current trend continues.

Editorial Representation of Eric Basmajian Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE
HIGHER Moderate
Fiscal & Treasury
Federal budget deficits near 7% of GDP fund household transfers and consumption rather than productive investment, supporting a persistently consumption-led economy. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 2d
Editorial Representation of Eric Basmajian Eric Basmajian HIGHER Moderate
Fiscal & Treasury Year 2d

Federal budget deficits near 7% of GDP fund household transfers and consumption rather than productive investment, supporting a persistently consumption-led economy.

Editorial Representation of Eric Basmajian Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE
HIGHER Strong
Earnings
Corporate profits retain an extremely strong support base while government deficits grow and borrowing continues funding transfer payments that flow into consumption. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 2d
Editorial Representation of Eric Basmajian Eric Basmajian HIGHER Strong
Earnings Year 2d

Corporate profits retain an extremely strong support base while government deficits grow and borrowing continues funding transfer payments that flow into consumption.

Editorial Representation of Eric Basmajian Eric Basmajian BUSINESS CYCLE
LOWER Moderate
AI
AI investment reallocates spending from long-lived assets toward shorter-lived assets, raising depreciation almost as quickly as current investment and worsening underbuilt housing and infrastructure. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 2d
Editorial Representation of Eric Basmajian Eric Basmajian LOWER Moderate
AI Year 2d

AI investment reallocates spending from long-lived assets toward shorter-lived assets, raising depreciation almost as quickly as current investment and worsening underbuilt housing and infrastructure.

Wordcloud

InvestmentBoomBudgetCorporateFederalGovernmentNetProfitsAssetsConsumptionDeficitDeficitsGrowthWorseningAmericansAssessingBaseBorrowingConstructiveConsumption-LedContinuesCurrentDepreciationDisconnectEconomicEconomyExtremelyFeelFlowFundFundingGDPGrossGrowHeadlineHouseholdHousingImply

Direction By Day

01 AUG02 AUG03 AUG04 AUG05 AUG06 AUG07 AUG08 AUG09 AUG10 AUG11 AUG12 AUG13 AUG14 AUG
AI············
Earnings············
Fiscal & Treasury············
Growth············

Sentiment Heatmap

01 AUG02 AUG03 AUG04 AUG05 AUG06 AUG07 AUG08 AUG09 AUG10 AUG11 AUG12 AUG13 AUG14 AUG
AI············
Earnings············
Fiscal & Treasury············
Growth············

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