LABOR INTERNALS

Danielle DiMartino Booth

As of 28 September 2026, Danielle DiMartino Booth holds 20 current views on Headge, 3 Bullish, 17 Bearish. The latest is Lower on Inflation over 1 Year. Every view links to the original post or video.

Former Dallas Fed adviser. Watches labor internals, consumer stress, bankruptcies, data revisions and Fed policy.

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LAST PUBLISHED 22H AGO

Catch-Up

Generated 08:00 ET

The picture is unchanged: inflation relief is framed as requiring a meaningful weakening in growth and labor bargaining power, even as consumer demand, housing and credit conditions show increasing strain. She sees higher rates and restrictive lending pressuring margins, housing and lower-quality credit, while AI capex and hyperscaler earnings face a separate risk from slowing investment and accounting-driven earnings support. The offset is targeted: grid-related utilities and infrastructure remain supported by data-center projects already under way.

At Generation 2 Higher · 0 Neutral · 14 Lower

Mix By Horizon

1 Week

0 BULL 0 NEUT 0 BEAR

1 Month

0 BULL 0 NEUT 9 BEAR

1 Year

2 BULL 0 NEUT 5 BEAR

New Views

Inflation

LOWER

Inflation can only be contained by weakening the broader economy enough to curb corporate pass-through and reduce workers’ wage bargaining power. Sun 27 Sep · 22:50 ET Year

LABOR

LOWER

Workers need to lose enough bargaining power for wages to stop chasing higher energy and freight costs, weakening labor-market conditions. Sun 27 Sep · 22:50 ET Year

Growth

LOWER

The broader economy must weaken substantially before businesses stop passing through higher energy and freight costs and wage pressures subside. Sun 27 Sep · 22:50 ET Year

Held
 LABOR▼ LOWER
U.S. labor market cracks are emerging as rising yields expose broader economic stress beneath weakening consumer demand and housing pressure. Sat 26 Sep · 11:00 ET Month
 Recession Risk▲ HIGHER
Further disinflation is likely to impair purchasing power and ultimately produce additional job losses, raising the risk of a recessionary outcome. Thu 24 Sep · 17:38 ET Year
 Fed Policy▼ TIGHTER
The Fed faces pressure for further rate hikes, with markets pricing three subsequent increases as the two-year Treasury trades near 4.73%. Thu 24 Sep · 17:38 ET Month
 Liquidity▼ LOWER
Credit conditions are tightening as banks absorb commercial real estate losses, clamp down on credit card lending standards, and restrict consumer lending. Thu 24 Sep · 17:38 ET Month
 Earnings▼ LOWER
Hyperscaler earnings are vulnerable because accounting treatment of private AI funding inflates results, leaving the earnings component of valuations at risk. Thu 24 Sep · 17:38 ET Year
 AI▼ BEARISH
AI investment has likely peaked on an inflation-adjusted basis, creating downside risk for US growth and the market support provided by the AI boom. Thu 24 Sep · 17:38 ET Year
 Housing▼ LOWER
Home prices could decline if higher rates force sidelined sellers to capitulate, accelerating housing-market normalization and improving affordability. Thu 24 Sep · 05:45 ET Month
 AI▼ BEARISH
AI investment growth has turned to contraction, with real AI capital-expenditure growth falling 34.6% in the second quarter, threatening broader growth. Thu 24 Sep · 05:45 ET Month
 Earnings▼ LOWER
Corporate margins will remain under pressure as companies cannot pass higher transportation and energy costs through to US consumers. Thu 24 Sep · 05:45 ET Month
 XLV▲ BULLISH
Utilities and companies supporting data-center energy-grid construction offer safer exposure because projects already underway still require a stronger grid. Thu 24 Sep · 05:45 ET Year
 HYG▼ BEARISH
CCC credit spreads will widen further as their more than 500-basis-point gap over fed funds signals distress spreading through credit markets. Thu 24 Sep · 05:45 ET Month
 Inflation▼ LOWER
Core PCE disinflation will continue as weakening airline and hotel demand signals lower core inflation beyond its decline from 4.7% to 3.3%. Thu 24 Sep · 05:45 ET Month
 USO▼ BEARISH
Oil prices need to come down to provide substantial relief to US and global households facing elevated living costs. Thu 24 Sep · 05:45 ET Month

Gone

XLRE

BEARISH

Multifamily distressed sales rose to 4.7% of deals in Q2 from 1.5% in Q2 2025 as lenders increasingly bring troubled assets to market. Tue 22 Sep · 11:25 ET Year

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