LABOR INTERNALS
Danielle DiMartino Booth
Former Dallas Fed adviser. Watches labor internals, consumer stress, bankruptcies, data revisions and Fed policy.
Catch-Up
The outlook is sharply cautious on underlying growth: stripped of AI-related construction and investment, the economy is described as contracting, while rising small-business bankruptcies point to broader post-COVID strain. AI is framed less as a durable support than an investment vulnerable to rapid obsolescence from cheaper Chinese alternatives. Fiscal concerns compound the picture, with debt nearing $40 trillion and any expansion of direct payments seen as a route back to high inflation and still greater borrowing.
A daily catch-up of talking heads, in fifteen minutes.
Current Views
Danielle DiMartino Booth LABOR INTERNALSNational debt is quickly approaching $40 trillion, with continued leverage leaving the economy more vulnerable than it was in 2018.
Danielle DiMartino Booth LABOR INTERNALSUS economy is shrinking once data center construction, artificial intelligence investment, and money flowing into AI are removed from output.
Danielle DiMartino Booth LABOR INTERNALSUniversal Basic Income and direct payments to Americans not working would drive inflation back toward double digits and sharply increase national debt.
Danielle DiMartino Booth LABOR INTERNALSSmall business bankruptcy filings are up 50% year-over-year, reflecting post-COVID policies that have inflicted severe damage on smaller businesses nationwide.
Danielle DiMartino Booth LABOR INTERNALSAI infrastructure faces obsolescence risk as cheaper Chinese technologies emerge, leaving excessive investment vulnerable to rapid depreciation and diminished returns.
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Sentiment Heatmap
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| AI | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ |
| Fiscal & Treasury | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
| Growth | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ |
| Inflation | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
| Recession Risk | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ |
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