MACRO ALLOCATION
Bob Elliott
As of 28 September 2026, Bob Elliott holds 20 current views on Headge, 12 Bullish, 8 Bearish. The latest is Bullish on TLT over 1 Year. Every view links to the original post or video.
Former Bridgewater executive. Macro liquidity, inflation/growth regimes, portfolio construction and systematic allocation. X is the primary feed.
VIEWS 5
LAST PUBLISHED 12H AGO
Catch-Up
Generated 08:00 ET
Oil’s marginal supply is becoming more expensive as Hormuz flows rely on high-risk transfers, while US inflation remains sticky because nominal demand is outpacing real output gains. The longer-run concern is that AI investment assumptions demand implausibly large revenue, households are drawing on securities to fund spending, and $SPY may offer less equity-like upside as rate sensitivity rises.
At Generation 2 Higher · 0 Neutral · 3 Bearish
Mix By Horizon
1 Week
0 BULL 0 NEUT 0 BEAR
1 Month
2 BULL 0 NEUT 1 BEAR
1 Year
0 BULL 0 NEUT 2 BEAR
New Views
USO
HIGHER
Oil supply moving through Hormuz via high-risk ship-to-ship transfers carries a $30–$40 per-barrel surcharge, raising the cost of incremental barrels reaching market. Month AI
BEARISH
AI capex plans require more than $3 trillion in revenue by 2030 to justify the spending, making projected returns implausible. YearHeld
Growth
LOWER
Household transfers from securities accounts to cover daily expenses are rising across age groups, signaling a dissaving-driven economy and weaker underlying growth. Year Inflation
HIGHER
US price growth remains elevated, as strong nominal order growth has translated into only limited gains in real domestic production. Month SPY
BEARISH
Stocks increasingly carry bond-like characteristics, implying diminished equity upside and greater sensitivity to interest-rate conditions over the medium term. MonthGone
CPER
BULLISH
Copper has reached all-time highs and risen 50% over the last year as the commodity surge extends well beyond oil and refined products. YearA daily catch-up of talking heads, in fifteen minutes.
Sentiment Graph
Today
SENTIMENT GRAPH
Current Views
ANALYSTDIRECTIONTOPICSUMMARYHORIZONFRESH
Bob Elliott MACRO ALLOCATION BULLISH Strong
TLT Long-duration real returns near 3.25% offer an attractive 30-year opportunity, especially compared with stocks currently trading at all-time highs. LEVELS · TARGET 3.25
Year 12h Bob Elliott MACRO ALLOCATION HIGHER Strong
USO Oil supply moving through Hormuz via high-risk ship-to-ship transfers carries a $30–$40 per-barrel surcharge, raising the cost of incremental barrels reaching market. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 14h Bob Elliott MACRO ALLOCATION BEARISH Strong
AI AI capex plans require more than $3 trillion in revenue by 2030 to justify the spending, making projected returns implausible. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 1d Bob Elliott MACRO ALLOCATION LOWER Moderate
Growth Household transfers from securities accounts to cover daily expenses are rising across age groups, signaling a dissaving-driven economy and weaker underlying growth. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 2d Bob Elliott MACRO ALLOCATION HIGHER Moderate
Inflation US price growth remains elevated, as strong nominal order growth has translated into only limited gains in real domestic production. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 3d Bob Elliott MACRO ALLOCATION BEARISH Moderate
SPY Stocks increasingly carry bond-like characteristics, implying diminished equity upside and greater sensitivity to interest-rate conditions over the medium term. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 5d Bob Elliott MACRO ALLOCATION HIGHER Moderate
Inflation Eurozone PMI data show rising input costs have yet to be fully reflected in end prices, building an inflation pipeline into prices charged. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 5d Bob Elliott MACRO ALLOCATION BULLISH Moderate
CPER Copper has reached all-time highs and risen 50% over the last year as the commodity surge extends well beyond oil and refined products. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 6d Bob Elliott MACRO ALLOCATION HIGHER Moderate
Inflation Global inflation shock remains ongoing as developed-world central banks, including the Bank of Japan and Bank of England, continue to act cautiously. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 8d Bob Elliott MACRO ALLOCATION HIGHER Moderate
Inflation Inflation pressures are rising as commodity prices increase broadly, creating a hiking cycle and undermining the case that inflation supports stocks. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 10d Bob Elliott MACRO ALLOCATION BEARISH Moderate
SHY Persistent elevated nominal growth could push short-end rates back into the mid-5% range, and perhaps somewhat higher, if current strength persists. LEVELS · TARGET 5
Year 10d Bob Elliott MACRO ALLOCATION LOWER Strong
Growth China's self-reinforcing deleveraging cycle leaves little prospect of meaningful Chinese support for global growth anytime soon, absent continued AI manufacturing dynamics. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 10d Bob Elliott MACRO ALLOCATION BEARISH Strong
TLT Long-end yields may need to rise enough to turn the business cycle because accommodative central banks appear unlikely to act proactively. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 10d Bob Elliott MACRO ALLOCATION TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy Major developed-market central banks are behind the curve, tolerating above-target inflation and relying on hopeful disinflation rather than proactive tightening. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 10d Bob Elliott MACRO ALLOCATION BULLISH Weak
CPER Copper has lifted during an otherwise flat week, raising the prospect that gains may broaden from oil into industrial commodities. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 10d Bob Elliott MACRO ALLOCATION TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy Fed policy remains far too easy under current conditions, with one or two additional rate hikes needed to meet its mandate. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 12d Bob Elliott MACRO ALLOCATION HIGHER Strong
Growth Official data showed extraordinarily strong growth, well above expectations and similar private-sector data, versus consensus expectations of 0.4%. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 12d Bob Elliott MACRO ALLOCATION HIGHER Moderate
Inflation Product prices are now well above all-time highs, pointing to persistently elevated goods prices rather than a return to prior price levels. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 13d Bob Elliott MACRO ALLOCATION BULLISH Strong
USO Dated Brent has already reached $120, with paper oil markets moving toward physical-market pricing and reinforcing near-term upside pressure. LEVELS · TARGET 120
Week 14d Bob Elliott MACRO ALLOCATION BULLISH Strong
USO Oil markets increasingly recognize that the squeeze on Middle East supply is far from transitory, with March 2027 Brent reaching Iran-war highs this week. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 16d
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