Inflation

Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 5.1% as consumer confidence fell to 81.9, its lowest reading in more than 12 years.

Inflation expectations remain elevated for the next five years, even as longer-dated TIPS pricing anticipates a return toward pre-COVID levels afterward.

Texas manufacturers expect input prices to rise 4.6% over the next 12 months and selling prices to increase 3.5%, the strongest pace in more than two years.

Inflationary pressures from AI infrastructure buildout and borrowing needs must be absorbed before any eventual productivity-driven disinflation can emerge.

Tariffs and the war with Iran have raised imported-goods, oil, and diesel costs, adding to price pressures that are pushing rates higher.

Energy, transportation, and raw-material costs are expected to climb further and filter through the economy, sustaining a damaging squeeze on consumers and businesses.

Truck contract rates averaged $3.11 per mile in August, up 29% from a year earlier and the highest level since August 2022, worsening affordability.

Inflation concerns are intensifying as energy prices continue rising and diesel reaches all-time highs, prompting expectations for a more hawkish Fed response.

US price growth remains elevated, as strong nominal order growth has translated into only limited gains in real domestic production.

Inflation remains too high, even as the recent rise in rates also reflects stronger cyclical growth and lower recession odds.

US diesel at a record $6.53 per gallon, up 74% since the Iran war began, will raise freight, farming, shipping, and consumer prices.

US price pressures intensified in September amid a spike in costs despite accelerating business growth and job gains.

Inflation could rise alongside interest rates under fiscal dominance, reversing the conventional expectation that higher rates restrain price pressures.

AI buildout is inflationary until productivity gains arrive, as corporate demand for equity and debt capital rises at a $3.3 trillion clip.

Inflation will keep rising from here, reinforcing the case for maintaining inflation hedges as part of a long-term portfolio approach.

Higher crude oil prices are expected to feed through to broader prices after a lag, becoming more visible as consumers face rising energy and shipping costs.

US core inflation exceeded expectations at 0.3% in August while headline CPI rose 0.4%, contributing to higher yields and increased rate-hike expectations next week.

Inflation is expected to rise during September as converging political, geopolitical, and monetary risks create a worsening market environment.

Inflation data due tomorrow represents a near-term risk as rising rates and oil remain active market drivers without signs of topping.

Inflation remains a more significant current risk than an earnings-driven deflationary event, though market signals do not yet indicate showstopper inflation.

US nominal GDP acceleration driven by fiscal spending, AI investment, deglobalization, and inventory building implies both stronger activity growth and higher inflation.

Inflation surprises are leading the tone of Fed communication, supporting a longer period of unchanged policy before hawkishness begins to ease.

Inflation faces short-run upward pressure from tariffs, volatile energy prices, and Middle East supply-chain disruptions despite disinflationary unit labor costs.

Inflation pressure should recede fairly quickly if oil prices reverse, as the tariff pass-through to consumer prices is mostly complete.

Inflation can only be contained by weakening the broader economy enough to curb corporate pass-through and reduce workers’ wage bargaining power.

Inflation data should decline over the next six months as PCE methodology changes, tariff effects fade, and oil, housing, and other inputs stop adding pressure.

Core PCE inflation is expected to decelerate on a trend basis over the medium term under the consensus Goldilocks outcome for the US economy.

TIPS inflation expectations fell after the FOMC rate increase, with two-, five-, and 10-year breakevens declining by 8, 6, and 5 basis points.

Inflation is viewed as transitory, while supply-driven oil prices are expected to decline next year and reduce price pressures.

Core inflation is on track to return to target in about a year as core PCE moving averages decline and converge toward lower CPI readings.

Core CPI is likely to come in soft enough tomorrow to cast doubt on a September rate hike.

Inflation numbers are expected to surprise to the downside over the next several months as below-potential growth puts downward pressure on aggregate prices.