Inflation

US gasoline prices have climbed to $4.07 per gallon, the highest for this point in August, indicating the inflation problem remains unresolved.

Poland’s inflation was 3.0% year over year in July, above the 2.5% target as M3 growth of 11.8% exceeds the 8.8% target-consistent rate.

Inflation would rise after a major market decline prompts liquidity support through quantitative easing and large-scale asset purchases.

Universal Basic Income and direct payments to Americans not working would drive inflation back toward double digits and sharply increase national debt.

US nominal GDP acceleration driven by fiscal spending, AI investment, deglobalization, and inventory building implies both stronger activity growth and higher inflation.

Inflation surprises are leading the tone of Fed communication, supporting a longer period of unchanged policy before hawkishness begins to ease.

Inflation is likely to remain subdued rather than enter an inflationary spiral, following another downside surprise and despite elevated bond yields.

Inflation rises under dollar devaluation and explicit yield curve control, with weaker-dollar import inflation eventually offsetting temporary relief from higher yields.

Inflation remains broader than CPI alone because higher producer costs still exist even when companies cannot pass them through to consumers.

Inflation faces upward pressure because the policy rate remains below the rising neutral rate, sustaining stronger nominal growth and employment.

Inflation faces short-run upward pressure from tariffs, volatile energy prices, and Middle East supply-chain disruptions despite disinflationary unit labor costs.

Inflation needs to average 0% for 65 months to offset the past 65 months’ 4% average and restore the Fed’s 2% target.

CPI is likely to tick up somewhat in next month’s report after the recent resurgence in oil prices, despite July’s weaker reading.

Inflation indicators are trending lower as consumer goods, energy, and services soften, leaving no urgency for Federal Reserve action.

Underlying Japanese CPI rates soften as households cut spending under imported food and energy costs, while headline inflation reflects transitory supply and currency shocks.