HOPE CYCLE
Michael Kantrowitz
Piper Sandler Chief Investment Strategist. HOPE framework — Housing, Orders, Profits, Employment.
Catch-Up
The Fed may be at peak hawkishness, but labor and inflation surprises still argue for policy to stay unchanged longer before the tone eases. That macro restraint sits alongside a more cautious read on earnings, where circular financing could expose weaker underlying quality and pressure valuations for some companies.
A daily catch-up of talking heads, in fifteen minutes.
Current Views
Michael Kantrowitz HOPE CYCLEFed policy has likely reached peak hawkishness, although rates may remain on hold for longer as inflation and labor surprises shape policymakers’ tone.
Michael Kantrowitz HOPE CYCLEInflation surprises are leading the tone of Fed communication, supporting a longer period of unchanged policy before hawkishness begins to ease.
Michael Kantrowitz HOPE CYCLELabor-market surprises are leading the tone of Fed communication, supporting a longer period of unchanged policy before hawkishness begins to ease.
Michael Kantrowitz HOPE CYCLEEarnings quality warrants closer scrutiny amid circular financing, with certain companies potentially receiving lower valuations as investors assess underlying results.
Wordcloud
Direction By Day
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ |
| Fed Policy | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
| Inflation | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
| LABOR | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ |
Sentiment Heatmap
| 01 AUG | 02 AUG | 03 AUG | 04 AUG | 05 AUG | 06 AUG | 07 AUG | 08 AUG | 09 AUG | 10 AUG | 11 AUG | 12 AUG | 13 AUG | 14 AUG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Earnings | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ |
| Fed Policy | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
| Inflation | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
| LABOR | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ |
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