HOPE CYCLE
Michael Kantrowitz
As of 28 September 2026, Michael Kantrowitz holds 13 current views on Headge, 6 Bullish, 7 Bearish. The latest is Bearish on SPY over 1 Month. Every view links to the original post or video.
Piper Sandler Chief Investment Strategist. HOPE framework — Housing, Orders, Profits, Employment.
VIEWS 3
LAST PUBLISHED 3H AGO
Catch-Up
Generated 08:00 ET
The picture is unchanged: broad corporate and consumer resilience is seen as masking underlying weakness, with the current data potentially marking the cycle’s high point after the easing tailwind of 2024–26. Nearer term, higher rates remain the central equity risk, pressuring valuations and limiting how far earnings momentum can carry stocks until the 10-year yield finds a near-term peak.
At Generation 0 Bull · 0 Neutral · 3 Lower
Mix By Horizon
1 Week
0 BULL 0 NEUT 0 BEAR
1 Month
0 BULL 0 NEUT 2 BEAR
1 Year
0 BULL 0 NEUT 1 BEAR
Held
Growth
LOWER
Aggregate corporate and consumer strength is masking broad weakness, with current data likely the cycle’s high point after 2024–26 monetary and fiscal easing. Year Earnings
LOWER
Earnings strength is unlikely to keep lifting equities as higher rates compress P/E multiples and the current earnings-growth trajectory eventually flattens. Month SPY
BEARISH
Stocks will likely struggle over the next several months until the 10-year yield reaches a near-term peak, as higher rates remain equities’ dominant risk. MonthA daily catch-up of talking heads, in fifteen minutes.
Sentiment Graph
Today
SENTIMENT GRAPH
Current Views
ANALYSTDIRECTIONTOPICSUMMARYHORIZONFRESH
Michael Kantrowitz HOPE CYCLE BEARISH Strong
SPY S&P 500 price faces downside unless earnings continue growing 30–40%, with math, breadth, and valuation all signaling disagreement. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 3h Michael Kantrowitz HOPE CYCLE LOWER Moderate
Growth Aggregate corporate and consumer strength is masking broad weakness, with current data likely the cycle’s high point after 2024–26 monetary and fiscal easing. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 1d Michael Kantrowitz HOPE CYCLE LOWER Moderate
Earnings Earnings strength is unlikely to keep lifting equities as higher rates compress P/E multiples and the current earnings-growth trajectory eventually flattens. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 4d Michael Kantrowitz HOPE CYCLE BEARISH Strong
SPY Stocks will likely struggle over the next several months until the 10-year yield reaches a near-term peak, as higher rates remain equities’ dominant risk. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 4d Michael Kantrowitz HOPE CYCLE BULLISH Moderate
TLT Long bonds could support strong equity returns if the 10-year Treasury yield reaches a 10-handle, despite 5% yields being unfavorable. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 11d Michael Kantrowitz HOPE CYCLE HIGHER Weak
Fiscal & Treasury The deficit is no longer steering markets and is instead along for the ride, relegated to the trunk. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 13d Michael Kantrowitz HOPE CYCLE TIGHTER Moderate
Fed Policy Fed policy remains hawkish as higher rates, rising oil, and tightening financial conditions continue pressuring S&P 500 valuation multiples. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 17d Michael Kantrowitz HOPE CYCLE BULLISH Moderate
AI AI adoption and inflation anxiety are expected to remain defining forces in markets, extending the current era beyond a short-term cycle. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 35d Michael Kantrowitz HOPE CYCLE BULLISH Strong
XLRE REITs could offer a powerful opportunity as constrained construction costs limit new supply while office, industrial, and retail markets rebound. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 39d Michael Kantrowitz HOPE CYCLE EASIER Moderate
Fed Policy Fed policy has likely reached peak hawkishness, although rates may remain on hold for longer as inflation and labor surprises shape policymakers’ tone. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 46d Michael Kantrowitz HOPE CYCLE LOWER Weak
LABOR Labor-market surprises are leading the tone of Fed communication, supporting a longer period of unchanged policy before hawkishness begins to ease. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 46d Michael Kantrowitz HOPE CYCLE HIGHER Weak
Inflation Inflation surprises are leading the tone of Fed communication, supporting a longer period of unchanged policy before hawkishness begins to ease. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 46d Michael Kantrowitz HOPE CYCLE LOWER Moderate
Earnings Earnings quality warrants closer scrutiny amid circular financing, with certain companies potentially receiving lower valuations as investors assess underlying results. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 48dWordcloud
Direction By Day
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| TLT | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Sentiment Heatmap
| 15 SEP | 16 SEP | 17 SEP | 18 SEP | 19 SEP | 20 SEP | 21 SEP | 22 SEP | 23 SEP | 24 SEP | 25 SEP | 26 SEP | 27 SEP | 28 SEP | |
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| Earnings | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ |
| Fed Policy | ▼ | ▼ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Fiscal & Treasury | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Growth | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ | ▼ |
| SPY | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ |
| TLT | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | · | · | · | · |
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