Growth

The economy should remain resilient as historically low unemployment and a larger affluent population support sustained consumer spending.

Johnson Redbook retail sales growth has retreated from its July peak but remains strong at 8.3%, well above year-ago levels.

Household savings and checking balances remain stable and substantially above 2019 levels, with no evidence that financial strain is depleting reserves.

The real economy is stronger and more robust than widely envisioned, with global expansion expected to continue well into 2027 and possibly early 2028.

The economy is doing very well as consumers continue spending, with financially strong seniors helping younger households despite an affordability crisis.

Growth should remain strong as the preferred response to high debt is to sustain the economy’s expansion rather than sharply cut spending or print excessively.

Consumer demand is showing mounting exhaustion across official and high-frequency private data, creating a materially larger drag on growth than AI’s current economic contribution.

Retail sales fell 0.6% in July, while inflation-adjusted spending declined more sharply as consumers paid more for less, reducing living standards.

US economy is shrinking once data center construction, artificial intelligence investment, and money flowing into AI are removed from output.

Net investment matters more than gross investment for assessing economic growth, indicating a less constructive underlying growth picture than headline investment measures imply.

Japan's economy lacks durable growth, strong domestic demand, sustained income gains, and sufficiently attractive domestic investment returns, leaving capital inclined to move overseas.