FED · POLICY ERROR
Mohamed El-Erian
Queens' College Cambridge, Allianz adviser. Fed policy, global growth and policy-error risk.
Catch-Up
Cooler PPI has eased expectations of a September Fed hike, with markets now assigning a materially lower chance of tightening. The near-term policy backdrop looks less restrictive, though the view remains contingent on incoming inflation data holding that softer tone.
A daily catch-up of talking heads, in fifteen minutes.
Current Views
Mohamed El-Erian FED · POLICY ERRORSeptember rate-hike expectations are likely to decline after softer retail sales, inflation, and labor data, implying an easier expected Fed-policy path.
Mohamed El-Erian FED · POLICY ERRORFront-end yields are likely to decline as softer retail sales, inflation, and labor data lower market expectations for a September rate hike.
Mohamed El-Erian FED · POLICY ERRORLonger-end Treasury yields are likely to rise as a heavy calendar of sovereign and corporate bond supply continues to pressure duration.
Mohamed El-Erian FED · POLICY ERRORSeptember Fed rate-hike expectations have cooled after PPI inflation came in cooler than or in line with forecasts, lowering the implied probability to around one-third.
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Sentiment Heatmap
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