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The S&P 500 needs to reclaim 7758 to rally after 7725's failed breakdown returned prices to the range magnet.

Year-ahead inflation expectations rose to 5.1% as consumer confidence fell to 81.9, its lowest reading in more than 12 years.

The S&P 500 must clear 7758 with strong conviction to begin an upside leg toward 7782, 7802, and 7812.

Cyclical payrolls continued to turn higher in the August employment report, signaling strengthening labor demand tied to the broader cyclical upswing.

Manufacturing green shoots reinforce a cyclical acceleration trend, even as private-sector JOLTS data continues to indicate a low-hire, low-fire labor market.

The August JOLTS hires rate increased to 3.3% from 3.2%, while the quits rate held at 1.9%, indicating labor-market conditions remain relatively steady.

Long-duration bonds are finally at fair value, with 5% coupons, reduced duration sensitivity as yields rise, and potential for consistent 5% returns at low volatility.

The S&P needs to recover the 7,758 magnet zone to rally toward 7,782, 7,802, and 7,812 after a failed breakdown at 7,725.

$TLT remains a strong near-term position, characterized as a starter delivering uninterrupted gains rather than a fresh call.

Natural gas faces severe global shortages as Europe enters winter with storage far behind, supporting higher prices by November.

Treasury bonds are entering an attractive zone at a 5.20% 10-year yield, making hyper-bearish positioning less warranted than when yields were below 4%.

Nominal growth is running at 5% to 6%, with the real economy expanding and supporting Treasury yields near comparable nominal GDP levels.

U.S. home-price appreciation accelerated in July, with the 20-city index rising 2.47% year over year and the national index increasing 1.93%.

The S&P 500 has recovered from a failed breakdown below 7725, and reclaiming 7758 with momentum could open 7782, 7802, and 7812.

Long bonds offer real value near 5.25% yields, with bearish inflation, deficit, and debt-supply concerns largely reflected in prices.

Inflation expectations remain elevated for the next five years, even as longer-dated TIPS pricing anticipates a return toward pre-COVID levels afterward.

Oil prices should remain elevated because Strait of Hormuz flows remain below prewar levels and no near-term deal appears likely to restore supplies.

Tariff pressure and deglobalization are unlikely to reverse under either party, preventing a return to cheap Chinese imports and persistent goods deflation.

Bitcoin benefits in the long run from the Clarity Act failing because crypto remains positioned as a disruptive alternative rather than a regulated incumbent.

ES can push into at least the middle of the prior day’s value near 5765, potentially retesting the prior day’s highs, if value-area support holds.

The S&P has 7755–7758 as support after a failed breakdown, keeping 7782, 7802, and 7812 upside targets active while 7725 remains below.

The S&P held 7755–7758 as support after a failed breakdown, keeping 7782, 7802, and 7812 upside targets live while 7725 remains below.

Regional Fed manufacturing gauges remained in expansion territory in September despite mixed readings, pointing to continued manufacturing-sector growth ahead of the ISM print.

Texas manufacturers expect input prices to rise 4.6% over the next 12 months and selling prices to increase 3.5%, the strongest pace in more than two years.

Fed pricing for a hiking cycle reaching around 5% by September 2027 looks unrealistic, implying policy should remain materially easier than markets expect.

SanDisk has broken above $1,800 to a new swing high, with RSI moving above 60 and confirming a constructive technical setup.

Bitcoin has entered a new bull market, supporting a constructive longer-term outlook for $BTC alongside a broad range of altcoins.

USD remains in a major bullish macro trend, signaling continued dollar strength across the medium-term market path ahead.

S&P 500 has gone 77 trading sessions without a 2% daily move, placing the calm streak toward the upper end of historical ranges.

Job openings in real estate fell to 50,000 in August, the fewest since February 2014, signaling a weaker labor market.

$FICO faces a tactical downside call, with the All-Pro designation reflecting a high-conviction bearish setup for the shares near term.

Dallas Fed services activity, company outlook, and revenue weakened sharply in September, signaling softer regional business growth despite an improvement in employment.

August job openings fell to 7.079 million from a revised 7.335 million, undershooting the 7.228 million estimate and signaling softer labor demand.

The appropriate federal funds rate is 4.5%, indicating policy remains accommodative even after recent tightening removed only some accommodation.

Market breadth has weakened as everything outside the Mag Seven trends lower, raising the risk that defensive positioning and risk-off sentiment pull mega-cap growth lower.

The market is effectively down despite a flat S&P 500, with a small group of mega-cap growth stocks offsetting broader declines heading into Q4.

Long-term Treasuries face structural supply-demand imbalances and unsettling volatility as fast money increasingly replaces traditional longer-term market participants.

Long-term earnings growth expectations sit at their highest level in 75 years while already elevated short-term forward growth estimates have begun to roll over.

Inherited houses will likely face distress sales under non-recourse mortgage rules, creating downward pressure on home prices over a structural horizon.

The Fed faces pressure to raise rates on October 28, as skipping a hike could prompt bond investors to push long-term yields significantly higher.

AI boom is becoming a debt boom, with SoftBank’s $11.1 billion junk-bond financing for OpenAI raising the risk that the boom ends in a bust.

Market breadth has deteriorated sharply, with only about 25% of S&P names above their 50-day averages and the Bullish Percent Index falling from 72% to 34%.

The S&P faces a stealth bear market, as widespread constituent breakdowns persist beneath flat index performance and upside opportunity requires meaningful breadth improvement.

The S&P 500’s 13% year-to-date gain masks weak breadth, with just 35% of stocks outperforming and 40% declining in 2026.

U.S. broad equity ETFs saw the largest outflows for the week ending September 25, while global ETFs were investors’ preferred destination.

AI spending is concentrated in computer equipment, the category that saw the largest cyclical drawdown in the 2001 recession, creating recession sensitivity for the current boom.

China has forced the United States to retreat from tariff threats, reducing near-term tariff and geopolitical pressure on US markets.

Inflation pressure should recede fairly quickly if oil prices reverse, as the tariff pass-through to consumer prices is mostly complete.