POSITIONING · COT
Jason Shapiro
As of 28 September 2026, Jason Shapiro holds 20 current views on Headge, 14 Bullish, 1 Neutral, 5 Bearish. The latest is Easier on Fed Policy over 1 Week. Every view links to the original post or video.
Veteran contrarian. Commitment of Traders data, crowding, sentiment extremes and futures setups.
VIEWS 1
LAST PUBLISHED 11H AGO
Catch-Up
Generated 08:00 ET
The remaining view is a short-term bullish case for $UNG, where natural gas has outpaced Bitcoin and maintained stronger upside momentum. The broader equity and copper calls are no longer on the page, including the prior contrast between constructive S&P/Nasdaq setups and a bearish Dow stance.
At Generation 1 Bullish · 0 Neutral · 0 Bear
Mix By Horizon
1 Week
1 BULL 0 NEUT 0 BEAR
1 Month
0 BULL 0 NEUT 0 BEAR
1 Year
0 BULL 0 NEUT 0 BEAR
Held
UNG
BULLISH
Natural gas has led Bitcoin this week, climbing around 12% and sustaining a notably stronger short-term upside move. WeekGone
DIA
BEARISH
The Dow remains a short position despite intraday reversals, with overnight equity moves viewed as uninformative for the trade. Week SPY
BULLISH
The S&P remains constructive despite closing marginally lower, with a chart that still presents a difficult bearish case for traders. Week CPER
BULLISH
Copper is making new highs after speculative long positioning eased, while its fundamental backdrop remains valid and trend following may improve. Month QQQ
BULLISH
Nasdaq and AI-linked equities remain constructive, supported by a new NQ high and a chart that remains difficult to dispute. WeekA daily catch-up of talking heads, in fifteen minutes.
Sentiment Graph
Today
SENTIMENT GRAPH
Current Views
ANALYSTDIRECTIONTOPICSUMMARYHORIZONFRESH
Jason Shapiro POSITIONING · COT EASIER Moderate
Fed Policy Fed intervention to support bonds is likely before the election if rates continue rising at their current pace, though market rejection would be dangerous. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 11h Jason Shapiro POSITIONING · COT BULLISH Strong
Positioning & Vol Long-end bond positioning remains crowded as traders have heavily bought the dip since mid-to-late August and continue adding despite losses. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 11h Jason Shapiro POSITIONING · COT BEARISH Moderate
TLT Long bonds remain vulnerable as heavily bought contrarian positions keep losing money, though intervention after further declines could trigger a squeeze higher. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 11h Jason Shapiro POSITIONING · COT HIGHER Moderate
Inflation Inflationary pressures from AI infrastructure buildout and borrowing needs must be absorbed before any eventual productivity-driven disinflation can emerge. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 11h Jason Shapiro POSITIONING · COT HIGHER Strong
Fiscal & Treasury Government deficits and borrowing needs are unlikely to face meaningful fiscal restraint until a crisis forces action, keeping debt pressures elevated. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 11h Jason Shapiro POSITIONING · COT BULLISH Moderate
UNG Natural gas has led Bitcoin this week, climbing around 12% and sustaining a notably stronger short-term upside move. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 4d Jason Shapiro POSITIONING · COT BEARISH Moderate
DIA The Dow remains a short position despite intraday reversals, with overnight equity moves viewed as uninformative for the trade. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 6d Jason Shapiro POSITIONING · COT BULLISH Moderate
SPY The S&P remains constructive despite closing marginally lower, with a chart that still presents a difficult bearish case for traders. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 6d Jason Shapiro POSITIONING · COT BULLISH Moderate
CPER Copper is making new highs after speculative long positioning eased, while its fundamental backdrop remains valid and trend following may improve. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 6d Jason Shapiro POSITIONING · COT BULLISH Moderate
QQQ Nasdaq and AI-linked equities remain constructive, supported by a new NQ high and a chart that remains difficult to dispute. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 6d Jason Shapiro POSITIONING · COT BULLISH Strong
UNG Natural gas is positioned for upside after exceptionally crowded speculative shorts failed to extend losses following negative inventory news. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 6d Jason Shapiro POSITIONING · COT BULLISH Strong
BTC Bitcoin remains a long-term bullish position, while shorting after missing the four-year cycle low risks losses in the asset. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 8d Jason Shapiro POSITIONING · COT NEUTRAL Neutral
Positioning & Vol The S&P is about 2.5% below its all-time high, leaving the index near peak levels without an explicit directional forecast. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 11d Jason Shapiro POSITIONING · COT BULLISH Moderate
IWM Russell 2000 is expected to rise, but a long position requires a day when the index closes higher after the Fed-driven weakness. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 12d Jason Shapiro POSITIONING · COT BULLISH Weak
BTC Bitcoin is trading relatively well after rebounding despite falling stocks, a stronger dollar, and weaker gold and silver following the Fed decision. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 12d Jason Shapiro POSITIONING · COT HIGHER Strong
Positioning & Vol Bond-market positioning remains problematic because persistent contrarian dip-buying in $TLT is failing, encouraging traders to add rather than exit losing longs. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 12d Jason Shapiro POSITIONING · COT BULLISH Moderate
DXY The dollar is strengthening as markets build in more Fed rate hikes, making higher US policy-rate expectations supportive for the greenback. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 12d Jason Shapiro POSITIONING · COT BEARISH Strong
TLT Long bonds likely remain under pressure while widespread contrarian dip-buying in $TLT keeps failing, despite short positioning at the long end. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 12d Jason Shapiro POSITIONING · COT TIGHTER Strong
Fed Policy The Fed delivered a 25-basis-point hike and a distinctly hawkish message, with the market increasingly pricing additional rate increases. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 12d Jason Shapiro POSITIONING · COT BEARISH Moderate
DIA Dow remains a short positioning thesis, contrasting with a prospective long Russell hedge amid uneven post-Fed equity-market action. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 12dWordcloud
Direction By Day
| 15 SEP | 16 SEP | 17 SEP | 18 SEP | 19 SEP | 20 SEP | 21 SEP | 22 SEP | 23 SEP | 24 SEP | 25 SEP | 26 SEP | 27 SEP | 28 SEP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | ▼ | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | · |
| CPER | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · |
| DIA | · | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | · |
| DXY | ▼ | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Fed Policy | · | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Fiscal & Treasury | ▲ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| GLD | ▼ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| IWM | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Positioning & Vol | · | · | ■ | ■ | ■ | ■ | ■ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| QQQ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · |
| SLV | ▼ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| SPY | ▼ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · |
| TLT | ▼ | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| UNG | ▲ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| USO | ▲ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Sentiment Heatmap
| 15 SEP | 16 SEP | 17 SEP | 18 SEP | 19 SEP | 20 SEP | 21 SEP | 22 SEP | 23 SEP | 24 SEP | 25 SEP | 26 SEP | 27 SEP | 28 SEP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | ▼ | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | · |
| CPER | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · |
| DIA | · | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | · |
| DXY | ▼ | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Fed Policy | · | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Fiscal & Treasury | ▲ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| GLD | ▼ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| IWM | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Positioning & Vol | · | · | ■ | ■ | ■ | ■ | ■ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| QQQ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · |
| SLV | ▼ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| SPY | ▼ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · |
| TLT | ▼ | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| UNG | ▲ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| USO | ▲ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Comments
0 REMARKS