Analyst Views on $SPY
The market is a coiled spring, with light positioning, strong earnings, and accommodative monetary conditions setting up a powerful next bull run.
The S&P is likely to make a deep trend move after trading around the 7758 magnet, with 7794 and 7812–7822 identified as next upside levels.
The S&P futures pivot at 7758 held repeatedly, with 7794 and 7812–7822 identified as the next upside levels.
The S&P needs to reclaim 7758 to resume upside targets, while a break below 7725 would trigger a hard selloff.
The S&P needs to recover 7753–7758 to resume its advance, while 7748 and 7725 are lower levels to watch for traps.
The S&P 500’s 7758 level held to defend a macro bull-flag backtest, with 7794 and 7812–7822 identified as upside levels.
The S&P 500 made a higher low and must hold this week’s higher-low support to preserve the intermediate-term constructive setup.
The S&P 500 is expected to chop at low volatility while holding 7758 support, with 7781, 7792, and 7812–7820 as the next upside levels.
The S&P 500 downtrend has snapped, with prices above the channel despite elevated rates, oil, and the dollar, signaling near-term resilience.
The S&P 500 has broken above a month-long bull flag and could reach 7,823, then 7,876, 7,903, and 8,000 if 7,755 holds.
The S&P 500 remains in an improving bullish trend above rising weekly and monthly clouds, although a pullback toward 7,100 or 6,900 could still find support.
The S&P 500 would enter a bullish momentum phase if RSI breaks above 60, with price breakouts confirmed by that threshold often leading to sustainable advances.
The S&P 500 should reach new all-time highs next week if its recent intermediate-term higher low continues to hold.
The S&P 500 is close to a substantial breakout, with another sharp selloff framed as a potential entry opportunity rather than a bearish reversal.
The S&P has reached 7,812, with 7,822 next and a potentially parabolic advance thereafter following successful failed-breakdown long triggers.
$SPY established an important higher low, providing a risk reference for next week; a break below would undermine the constructive price-action setup.
The S&P 500 short squeeze following Wednesday’s 135-point selloff has reached 7770 and 7782 targets, with 7812 remaining.
The S&P 500's 7770/7758 macro bull-flag support needs to hold, with 7782 and 7812 the next upside levels after a trapped dip.
The S&P’s rebound from the 7716 failed breakdown remains intact after a mini dip, provided 7770 and 7758 hold as support.
The equity market has substantial upside as a coiled spring, with the advance potentially persisting through 2027 and perhaps into 2028.
Stocks are positioned to move much higher as policy intervention offsets negative economic factors despite markets already reaching all-time highs.
The S&P futures recovery from the 7716 failed breakdown has reached 7770, with 7812 and 7822 next if bulls hold 7770 and 7758.
The S&P futures breakout has follow-through above 7,716, with 7,802, 7,812, and 7,822 as next upside tests and 7,770 support.
The structural drivers of the Paradigm C bull market remain intact, favoring investors who look through near-term political and geopolitical volatility.
The S&P 500 futures advance has next upside levels at 7,782 and 7,812, provided bulls hold 7,758 after the reclaim.
The S&P 500 recovered from the 7,716 failed-breakdown long trigger, reached 7,770, and has 7,782 then 7,812 as next upside targets.
The S&P futures reclaim of 7760 points to 7770+, with 7782 and 7812 as upside targets after the 7716 failed-breakdown long trigger.
The S&P needs to reclaim 7758–7760 to resume its rally after that zone marked the final upside target for the day.
The S&P 500 rebounded sharply from the failed 7,716 breakdown, with 7,758–60 needing recovery to establish a bottom toward 7,770 or higher.
The S&P needs to recover 7758–60 to sustain today’s rally, with upside levels at 7770 and 7782 or higher.
The S&P needs to reclaim 7758–60 to rally today, while 7716 remains support after last week’s failed-breakdown advance.
An exit from the Strait of Hormuz conflict could create an incredibly positive backdrop for a Santa Trump rally into and through year-end.
The S&P must recover 7812 to rally heavily after bulls defended the 7760–7770 support zone and produced an initial 15-point rebound.
The S&P 500 has broken out of a two-week bull flag and is backtesting 7770, with 7760 watched for traps and 7740 below.
The S&P needs to reclaim 7812 to resume an advance toward 7822, 7830, and 7848 or higher, while 7770 remains support.
The S&P needs to recover 7812 to extend its rally toward 7822, 7830 and 7848, while 7770 remains the key dip level.
The S&P needs to reclaim 7812 to rally toward 7823, 7830, and 7848 or higher after backtesting the macro bull-flag breakout near 7770.
S&P futures reclaiming 7812 can extend toward 7823, 7830, and 7848, while 7770 remains a macro bull-flag backtest level.
The S&P is consolidating in a 7812–7848 flag, with a breakout above 7848 targeting 7866 after last week’s failed-breakdown rally.
The S&P has support at 7770 and could extend from 7830 toward 7848, with 7812 identified as a potential trap area.
The S&P would surge across risk assets if mounting political pressure forces a policy reversal in the near term.
The S&P 500 can remain supported by technology strength, with rebounds in several lagging sectors potentially improving conditions into October.
The S&P remains constructive despite closing marginally lower, with a chart that still presents a difficult bearish case for traders.
Stocks have a bullish short- to medium-term outlook as macro conditions signal a high probability of sustaining the current risk-on regime.
The S&P has broken its recent range with higher lows and rising 20- and 50-day averages, favoring a buyable recovery after a shakeout.
The S&P 500 is coiling for another major upside leg after reclaiming 7,830, as volatility remains muted and price consolidates.
The S&P 500 has broken out of a massive macro bull flag at 7770, with 7850 and 7864 remaining the next upside levels.
US equities are positioned for a green September, signaling a bullish near-term outlook for the S&P 500 through month-end.
The S&P 500 broke out of a multi-week bull flag, with 7850 and 7864 next upside levels while 7770 provides support.
The S&P 500 remains in a multi-week bull-flag breakout, with 7830 support and 7850 then 7864 as the next upside levels.
The S&P 500 remains in a multi-week bull-flag breakout, with 7850, 7860, and 7864 overhead after the 7616 failed breakdown.
The S&P 500’s improving market momentum puts another all-time high within reach as near-term trading conditions remain supportive.
The S&P 500 has broken above roughly 7770 bull-flag resistance, with 7850, 7860, and 7864 next while 7770 provides support.
The S&P appears headed for all-time highs this week, with intraday pullbacks likely attracting buyers near the two-day weekly VWAP.
The S&P futures breakout from a macro bull flag targets 7850, 7860, and 7864, while 7812 and 7770 provide support.
The S&P 500 is positioned for a green September, signaling a near-term bullish outlook for US equities through month-end.
The S&P 500 has shifted from a potential breakdown to a potential breakout, with Monday’s rally appearing to confirm a bull flag despite weak breadth confirmation.
The S&P 500 has broken upward from a potential bull flag, and follow-through could validate a move to new all-time highs into October.
S&P 500 futures broke out of a macro bull flag at 7,780, with upside bonus targets at 7,812, 7,831, and 7,865.
The S&P 500 futures rally extends after a failed breakdown at the August 3 7611/16 low and a bull-flag breakout at 7780, targeting 7865.
The S&P’s next upside levels are 7831 and 7865 after the macro bull flag target of 7780–7787 was reached this morning.
The S&P 500 faces an imminent sharp upside move, described as a face ripper incoming during today’s trading session.
The S&P’s macro breakout is expected to extend the next swing leg higher, with 7831 and 7865 identified as the next upside targets.
S&P 500’s upside runner remains intact after the 7616 failed breakdown, with 7802 and 7812 identified as remaining near-term bonus targets.
The S&P 500 futures rally has reached 7780–87 flag resistance, with a macro breakout opening 7812 as the first upside objective.
The S&P 500 has broken out above 7728, which now acts as support, with upside targets at 7750 and 7780–87 macro bull-flag resistance.
The S&P 500 has achieved 7714, 7728, and 7750 targets after a 7616 failed breakdown, with 7787 resistance next and 7728 support.
The S&P's bounce after yesterday's drop negates the breakdown, restores a potential bull flag, and keeps the chart constructive above its 50-day moving average.
S&P 500 futures have formed a textbook bull flag, with a likely move to 7780 resistance followed by a breakout toward 7833 and 7866.
S&P 500 price remains above strongly bullish Bollinger Bands and secular volatility scores support a strong secular bull market rather than stagnation.
The S&P 500 is showing constructive action around its rising 50-day moving average after a quick washout and recovery, supporting further upside next week.
S&P futures remain supported after holding 7685, with 7716, 7728, and 7750 identified as the next upside levels for next week.
The S&P 500 reclaimed 7685 after a 7616 failed breakdown and retains a 7728 gap-fill target, though pursuing the move is a high-risk long.
The S&P’s reclaim of 7685 is a high-risk long setup after a failed breakdown from 7616 reached the 7728 gap-fill target.
The S&P retains bullish potential from the 7616 failed breakdown, with 85 support holding and a reclaim of 97 needed to restart a rally.
ES could pop toward 7707 and 7716 or higher if 7697 reclaims, with 7685 support holding and 7672 and 7657 below.
The bull market is not over yet, with systemic economic, policy, and market tail risks likely to become unusually severe over the next 5–10 years.
The S&P 500 completed the 7,728 Sunday-gap target after a 7,616 failed breakdown, while 7,685 remains support through OPEX chop.
S&P 500 futures have upside targets at 7,728, 7,740, and 7,750 after filling Sunday’s gap, while 7,685 serves as support on OPEX day.
S&P 500 reclaimed 7,600 and its 50-day moving average, reviving the potential bull-flag pattern after the prior day’s breakdown failed.
A maximally hawkish Fed creates a bullish near-term setup for the S&P 500, as restrictive policy expectations are fully reflected.
Equities are set up for a rally as the Fed has turned maximally hawkish, leaving room for incremental data to turn dovish.
The S&P 500 has respected support at 7687 after a failed breakdown of the 7616 August 3 low, with 7695, 7714, and 7728 upside targets.
The S&P has defended 7687 support, leaving 7728 as the outstanding target for today after a failed breakdown at 7616 produced a 100-point rally.
The S&P has upside targets at 7695, 7714, and 7728 after 7616 held as a failed-breakdown long trigger, with 7687 near-term support.
The S&P 500’s first retrace after a 100-point advance should squeeze higher, with 7,695, 7,714, and 7,728 identified as today’s targets.
The S&P's pain trade remains higher following the rate hike, suggesting markets have absorbed tighter policy without a damaging risk-off response.
The S&P 500 has triggered a failed-breakdown long, with upside targets at 7695, 7714, and 7728 after support near 7687 and 7663 held.
The S&P 500 long from the 7616 failed breakdown remains constructive, with 7739 and 7759 identified as bonus upside targets for today.
Markets should bottom around the elections before taking off later this fall as investors look toward continued capex and a dovish Federal Reserve.
The S&P has broken higher after reclaiming 7611–16, with 7695, 7714, and 7728 next upside levels and 7663 support.
The S&P 500’s post-press-conference dip does not reflect conviction from stronger sellers, leaving the near-term market structure inconsistent with a bearish outlook.
S&P futures recovering 7616 would trigger a move back toward 7645 after post-FOMC volatility and an elevator-down decline.
The S&P futures recovery above 7645 resumes the upside, with 7634 as support and a break below 7616 or 7604 invalidating the setup.
The S&P futures failed breakdown at 7645 triggered a long setup that reached the 7663 target, with further upside still in play for remaining exposure.
S&P futures have continued post-FOMC upside follow-through, with 7702 and the 7728 gap fill remaining upside targets above 7663 and 7645 support.
The S&P 500 is most likely to rally after the 2:15 p.m. ET FOMC decision, whether the Fed raises rates or holds with a dovish surprise.
The S&P 500 triggered a long setup after holding 7645 bull-flag support or reclaiming 7663, with 7689 hit and 7702 nearly reached.
$SPY could stage a near-term relief rally after several rough, oversold sessions if the FOMC message is interpreted positively.
The market is oversold after recent losses, so any Fed news interpreted positively will probably trigger a near-term rally.
The S&P 500 remains in an upside move from the failed 7,645 breakdown, targeting 7,702 and 7,728 next after 7,689 was retested.
The S&P 500 has a major long trigger above 7663, with 7702 and 7728 as near-term targets after 7689 was reached.
The S&P futures long from the 7,645 failed breakdown remains intact, with 7,702 next and 7,728 as the gap-fill target today.
The S&P futures long setup remains intact above 7,663 and 7,645 support, targeting 7,702 and then 7,728 to fill the gap today.
The S&P 500 has followed through after reclaiming 7663, with upside targets at 7689, 7702, and 7728 to fill the gap.
The S&P 500 is expected to rally toward 7,800–7,850 over the next month as a less-hawkish 25-basis-point hike supports stocks.
The S&P 500 could rise from 7,550 to 7,800 or 7,850 within a month if the Fed hikes 25 basis points without hawkish guidance.
The 45-month bull market remains intact, supported by earnings growth and margin expansion despite global equity leadership varying by currency.
The S&P 500 can resume higher toward 7,686, 7,694, 7,704, and 7,726 or higher if it clears 7,663 resistance.
The S&P has held 7643–45 flag support after a failed breakdown, with 7704 and 7726 identified as the next upside targets.
The S&P futures reclaim of 7663 is expected to resume the advance toward 7704 and 7726 after targets at 7686 and 7694 were reached.
S&P futures must reclaim 7663 to resume the rally, with 7704 and 7726 remaining upside targets after 7686 was hit.
S&P futures failed breakdowns at 7,662 remain actionable, with 7,686 hit and 7,704 then 7,726 as upside targets while 7,662 holds support.
The S&P 500 has a strong upside setup after recovering the 7662 shelf, with 7704 and 7726 gap-fill targets remaining today.
The S&P triggered higher from a failed breakdown at the 7662 shelf, with 7686, 7704, and 7726 identified as near-term upside targets.
Markets can rally on the event when investors enter it braced for bad news, rather than sell off once the anticipated news arrives.
The S&P 500 would confirm a potential bull flag on a break above roughly 7,720, while 7,600 remains the key line in the sand.
S&P 500 futures held 7,595 support and reached 7,627, 7,637, and 7,650 targets, with 7,663, 7,680, and 7,714 now upside levels.
The S&P must keep rising to support consumer spending and prevent fiscal math from deteriorating as interest costs mount on U.S. debt.
The S&P 500 held 7,595 support and reached 7,627, 7,637, and 7,650 targets during the session, supporting continued upside momentum.
S&P 500 futures remain range-bound, with 7627, 7637, and the 7650 gap fill still serving as upside targets above 7595 support.
The S&P 500 has support at 7,595 and, if it clears 7,620 resistance, could reach 7,627, 7,637, and the 7,650 gap fill.
The S&P 500 is testing 7,600 support, with a bend-don’t-break setup that could preserve the basis for a classic Q4 rally.
The S&P must reclaim 7620 to rally today toward 7627, 7637, and 7650 or higher for a gap fill, while 7595 remains support.
The S&P 500 has become cheaper as earnings growth outpaces market gains, and markets typically do not top while valuations are improving.
The S&P futures need to reclaim 7,620 to target 7,627, 7,637 and 7,650 or higher, while 7,595 remains support below.
U.S. stocks have historically whipsawed through recent FOMC meetings, but the average week still closes in the green.
The stock market is unlikely to suffer the widely anticipated selloff on Monday, favoring a near-term upside or resilient response instead.
Stocks at interest-rate levels last seen in fall 2023 present a similar buying opportunity rather than a materially different market backdrop.
The S&P 500 has built a textbook bull flag, with 7650 and 7620 as support and a breakout above 7797 after clearing 7704, 7714, and 7745 resistance.
The S&P 500 remains in a strong secular bull trend, and even an approximately 9% correction would most likely be followed by higher highs.
The S&P 500 retains an overall bullish structure despite choppy action in no man's land around declining short-term averages.
The S&P 500 is unlikely to top while valuations keep improving, as accelerating earnings have made the market cheaper even as prices rise.
The S&P 500 has completed a failed breakdown by recovering the 7,622–7,627 shelf, signaling a sustained rally toward 7,694, 7,704, and 7,745.
The S&P 500 has broken out into a sustained rally, with 7,694, 7,704, and 7,745 as next upside targets and 7,650 support.
The S&P breakout above 7,627 has triggered a sustained rally, with 7,694, 7,704, and 7,745 identified as the next upside targets.
The S&P 500 reclaimed 7,603 and 7,622–7,627, triggering upside targets at 7,649, 7,662, and 7,671, with 7,694 and 7,704 as bonus levels.
Equities face a higher near-term pain trade after semi-hot CPI, alongside a weaker USD and lower oil once the initial reaction settles.
The S&P futures recovery above 7622–7627 restores bullish control, with 7692 and 7704 as the next upside targets after earlier targets were reached.
The S&P reclaimed and held 7622/27 after CPI, restoring bullish control and reaching targets at 7649, 7662, and 7671, with 7692 and 7704 as further upside levels.
The S&P 500 has recovered the 7,627 shelf, which must now hold through CPI to preserve the near-term bullish setup.
S&P 500 technical breadth is screaming oversold, boosting the odds of a near-term reflexive rally once buyers return.
The S&P futures bull flag held 7589 support, with 7649, 7662, and 7671+ identified as next upside levels before CPI.
The S&P needs to reclaim 7,603 this evening to return toward 7,630, with a move above that region opening the way for a stronger squeeze.
The S&P 500 is positioned for a positive September, with the green-tie signal framing an upside call for the month.
The S&P futures reclaim of 7,649 remains a long trigger toward 7,658 first, then 7,671 or higher, with 7,630 as support.
S&P 500 faces a higher pain trade as strong earnings, elevated shorts, light positioning and $163 billion of cash could force buyers back into equities.
The equity bubble remains unusually weak, but the prevailing pain trade is for the S&P 500 to move higher still.
The S&P 500 can remain higher for now as poor sentiment, limited defensive leadership, and renewed mega-cap strength offset mild breadth deterioration.
The S&P 500 can begin its next leg higher toward 7659 and 7671 or above if it recovers from the precise 7649 level.
The S&P must recover 7649 support to reach 7659 and 7671, with a move above those levels extending the upside.
The S&P needs to reclaim 7671 to open upside targets at 7680, 7692, and 7714 or higher, while 7649 remains support.
The S&P requires a momentum recovery of 7662–7671 for a proper rally, with upside targets at 7680, 7692, and 7714 or higher.
The S&P needs to reclaim 7662/7671 today to begin a rally targeting 7680, 7692, and 7714 or higher.
S&P futures need to reclaim 7662 and 7671 to rally toward 7680 and 7692 or higher today, with 7649 as weak support.
S&P had a floor near 7650 after large 0DTE positions formed, making the dip less concerning and setting up a potential bounce if positions closed.
Stocks will be much higher in price 18 months from now as the Treasury and Federal Reserve ultimately cap long-term yields after any transitory tightening.
The S&P 500 has a firm 7,695–7,700 ceiling, but a clear break could trigger a rapid advance toward 7,714, 7,722, and 7,745.
The S&P needs to recover 7695–7700 with momentum to resume higher toward 7714, 7722, 7745, and then 7763.
The S&P must reclaim 7695–7700 with strength, while 7745 remains the upside target after 7714 and 7722 were reached.
The S&P needs to clear 7695–7700 with strength to extend toward 7714, 7722, and potentially 7745 or higher in the near term.
The S&P 500 needs to recover the 7695–7700 zone with momentum before another tactical long setup becomes actionable.
The S&P futures setup requires a reclaim of 7700 to resume higher, while 7671 is the key lower level where downside traps warrant caution.
The S&P 500 futures recovery above the 7700 shelf keeps the active failed-breakdown setup constructive, with 7722 and 7745 as next targets.
S&P futures have 7714, 7722, and 7745 as next upside levels after 7700 failed breakdowns, while 7695 has weakened as support.
The S&P is less than 1% from a new all-time high, showing stocks remain resilient despite rising yields.
The S&P 500’s bull-flag breakout keeps 7764, 7797, and 7836-plus upside targets active while 7714 and 7695 become support.
The S&P 500 remains in a strong secular uptrend, and an early drawdown before the midterms would be treated as a normal correction followed by higher highs.
The S&P 500 is having difficulty moving lower despite repeated fakeouts and knee-jerk reactions, a cautiously bullish setup that should resolve to the upside.
The S&P 500 needs to hold 7,722 and 7,695 on any dips to keep upside targets directly in play into Monday and Tuesday.
The S&P has broken out of a bull flag, with 7,722 holding on backtests and upside levels at 7,745, 7,771, and 7,797.
The S&P 500 retains a bullish setup after a 100-point rebound from the 7622/7637 failed breakdown, with 7745+ possible on a 7722 reclaim.
The stock market will surge if the war ends, as lower energy prices, falling inflation, and declining global yields reverse the forces currently pressuring markets.
The S&P needs to digest its 100-point advance before setting up the next leg higher, with 7722 and 7695 identified as support levels.
The S&P needs to re-flag and digest its 100-point advance, with recoveries above 7745 targeting 7758, 7771, and 7797+ while 7722 remains support.
The S&P 500 has completed a 100-point rebound from failed breakdowns, with 7722 and 7695 identified as key supports during today’s digestion.
The S&P 500 completed a 100-plus-point rebound from failed breakdowns, with 7771, 7782, and 7797 identified as next upside levels and 7722 support.
US equities are positioned for strong returns through September, implying a constructive near-term outlook for the S&P 500.
The bull market in stocks is not over because yield-curve control is expected in some form by the end of next year.
The S&P 500's move to its downtrend line is significant, while a semiconductor low could provide a substantial tailwind after the sector's recent weakness.
The S&P 500 futures rally is expected to extend toward 7,797 after targets at 7,681, 7,695, 7,714, and 7,733 were reached or approached.
The S&P 500’s rally has reached 7733, with a breakout opening upside targets at 7771 and 7797 after reclaiming 7637 and 7622.
The S&P 500 has pulled back in recent weeks but continues to hold a key support range, preserving a constructive technical setup.
The S&P 500 cleared targets through 7714 after 7671 support held, with 7733 remaining the next bull-flag resistance level.
S&P futures extended strongly from the long setup, hitting targets through 7714 while 7671 held, with 7733 remaining as a bonus upside level.
S&P 500 futures have tagged 7704, with 7714 next and 7733 as a potential bonus target after a technically strong session.
S&P 500 futures remain supported above 7671, with 7704 and 7714 as the next upside targets following the 7637 recovery.
S&P 500 futures reclaimed 7,637 and held 7,671 as support, leaving 7,681, 7,695, 7,704, and 7,714 as near-term upside levels.
Risk-on market conditions can withstand one to two rate hikes, with five of six macro cycles currently supporting asset-market momentum through 2027 or early 2028.
The S&P has defended 7671 precisely, with 7704 and then 7714 or higher as the next upside targets; new lows require a break below 7649.
The S&P 500 has defended 7671 support, with 7704 and 7714 as the next upside targets; 7649 must fail to reopen downside risk.
The S&P 500 could create a buying opportunity after September weakness, supporting a year-end rally that often begins in October.
The S&P 500 recovery remains intact after reaching intraday targets, with 7704, 7714, and 7735–7745 next if bulls hold 7671; failure of 7649 risks new lows.
The S&P needs to hold 7671, with 7704 and 7714 opening a rally toward 7735–7745 after upside targets through 7681 were reached.
The S&P futures recovery is expected to extend toward 7704 and 7714 after 7681 was tagged, following a sequence of failed breakdowns.
ES futures above 7681 should rally toward 7704 and 7714, with bulls retaking control if the move extends beyond those targets.
The S&P 500 should rally toward 7704 and 7714 if ES clears 7685, with bulls retaking control above those levels.
U.S. equities are expected to post a strong gain in September, countering the month’s historically weak seasonal reputation.
The stock market's AI-driven advance is not expected to end within the next three to six months, making near-term volatility a dip-buying opportunity.
The S&P 500 needs to recover the 7,634–7,637 zone to rally toward 7,649 and 7,659 or higher in the near term.
The S&P 500 has reclaimed 7659 support and faces upside targets at 7684, 7695, and 7704, while recovering 7714 could ignite a sustained rally.
The S&P needs to recover 7714 for bulls to regain control, after reaching the 7671 target and dipping from that level.
The S&P recovered 7659 and reached 7671, with 7684, 7695, and 7704+ next while 7714 must recover for bulls to regain full control.
Stocks are set up for a positive surprise and strong returns in September as cautious consensus prices in Fed hikes, AI headwinds, and weak seasonals.
The S&P 500 could rally strongly if the Federal Reserve does not hike rates at its September 15 meeting, despite mounting market concern.
The S&P 500 has upside levels at 7704 and 7714 after reaching 7695, while 7671 marks nearby downside support.
The S&P 500 could rotate back toward the 7700 area if ES does not break down below the 7674–75 B-period lows.
The S&P 500 needs to reclaim 7,714 to sustain a proper rally, with recoveries of 7,685 opening 7,704 and then 7,714-plus.
The S&P 500 could rally very strongly if the Fed holds rates in September, making the policy decision a near-term catalyst for equities.
The S&P 500’s forward P/E has declined from 25 to 21 this year and is now fairly average for the post-COVID period.
The S&P futures rally requires a recovery of 7,704 followed by 7,714 to trigger a squeeze, while 7,671 remains the downside level.
The S&P needs to recover 7714 to rally toward 7728 and 7736 or higher, while 7695 support is weakening and 7671 sits below.
The S&P faces weak support at 7704, while a 7714 reclaim targets 7728 and 7736 or higher after a failed breakdown recovery.
The stock market has historically risen over time despite military conflicts, as wars end and the economy and earnings continue growing long term.
S&P 500 was higher one year later in 88% of historical cases, with a median gain of 12.50%.
The stock market would rise if the President reaches a peace agreement with Iran, though the timing of any agreement remains uncertain.
The S&P futures consolidation holds a bullish path toward 7797, 7830, and 7875 as long as 7714 and 7675 support hold or briefly trap lower.
The S&P 500 is up 18% during a historically weak midterm-year stretch, while nearly every sector remains positive despite the seasonal headwind.
The S&P 500 gained approximately 40% in the year after the Fed’s March 25, 1997 rate hike, illustrating that a hike need not derail equities.
The S&P 500 is on pace for the highest monthly close in American history with one trading day remaining in the month.
The S&P 500 remains in a secular bull market, with any pre-midterm weakness more likely a normal correction than a 2022-style bear market.
The S&P 500 remains in an uptrend above rising 5-, 20-, 50-, and 200-day averages, though a sustained break below 767 could trigger a drop toward its 50-day average.
$SPY remains constructive above its rising five-day moving average, though a sustained break below 767 would reverse the near-term risk outlook.
The S&P must hold 7714 support to keep near-term upside targets active, with 7797 remaining the outstanding target after falling 16 points short.
ES needs to reclaim 7734 to resume the move higher toward 7797, while 7714 is support and a break below 7695 would undermine the setup.
ES has defended 7734 support after sweeping it, leaving 7797 as the remaining upside target in the near-term setup.
The S&P futures rally has reached 7745 and 7758 after reclaiming 7734, with 7771 and 7797 remaining as upside targets.
S&P futures recovered after sweeping 7734 and retain upside targets at 7758, 7771, and 7797, while gains from the long require aggressive protection.
The S&P futures breakout above 7714 supports a continued rally toward 7771 and then 7797, with 7734 and 7714 acting as support levels.
The S&P 500 has cleared and backtested 7714 resistance, supporting a continued rally toward 7758, 7771, and 7797, with 7734 and 7714 as support.
ES futures broke 7714 resistance and could extend toward 7733, 7745, 7758, 7771, and 7779 while volatility remains low.
The S&P 500’s positive August return and 10% to 17.5% year-to-date gain historically favor September-through-December upside, despite possible interim weakness.
U.S. stocks have returned about 10% annually over the past century, though individual calendar-year returns almost never match that average.
The S&P remains in grind-up mode after the 7714–20 resistance zone flipped to support, with 7764, 7771, and 7797 as next upside targets.
$SPY buyers have regained control on the intermediate-term timeframe, leaving the index innocent until proven guilty with a higher price target.
$SPY buyers have regained intermediate-term control, leaving the index constructive with a higher price target while risk management remains the focus.
The S&P 500 futures advance targets 7764 next, followed by 7771 and 7797, after support held at 7714 and trapped bearish positioning.
The S&P has held 7714 support after repeated traps below, with 7745 and 7764 next before 7771 and 7797 remain upside targets today.
The S&P’s defense of 7714 support keeps upside targets at 7733, 7745, and 7764-plus in play after the anticipated squeeze.
S&P 500 futures holding 7714 support keeps the 7733, 7745, and 7764-plus upside targets in play for today.
The S&P futures rally keeps 7733, 7745, and 7764 upside targets active while 7714 becomes heavily tested support and 7698 and 7680 sit below.
The S&P could reach 8,000 into September OPEX if Warsh’s 10 A.M. EST speech is neutral to dovish, with options pricing 35 basis points of extra movement.
The S&P has upside targets at 7,745, 7,771, and 7,797 as long as ES futures hold 7,680 following Nvidia earnings.
The stock market bubble thesis remains intact, supported by an exceptional investing backdrop, resilient growth, corporate profits, and a widening labor-to-capital income disparity.
The S&P has reached 7,691 and 7,698 targets, with upside levels at 7,716–21, 7,733, 7,745, 7,771, and 7,797.
The S&P holds 7,680 as a magnet, with 7,659 support and 7,716–7,721 as the next upside target before a rally can extend.
The S&P 500 technical backdrop remains constructive, with 74% breadth and equal-weight performance keeping pace, supporting continued benign market broadening.
The S&P 500 has held 7680 support repeatedly, with a sustained move above 7716–21 opening room for a further upside rip.
ES futures hold 7680 support, with upside targets at 7698, 7716–21, 7733, 7746, and 7771+ while 7659 remains must-hold support.
S&P futures have reclaimed and held 7680, with upside targets at 7698, 7716–21, 7733, 7746, and 7771+ during today’s session.
The S&P remains range-bound around 7680, with upside targets at 7698 and 7716–7721 once resistance clears; 7659 is support.
The S&P 500 primary trend remains higher despite near-term concerns and tightly compressed trading ahead of $NVDA earnings, with the next gap direction unresolved.
The S&P needs to recover 7,691, 7,698, and 7,716–21 before a real rally can develop, while 7,659 remains a downside trap level.
Stocks, particularly the S&P 500, should remain strong through 2026 as risk assets rise faster during the Fourth Turning, albeit with greater volatility.
The S&P 500 futures reclaimed 7,680 as support, with 7,710 and 7,716–20 as upside targets before a potentially sharper advance.
The S&P 500 needs to reclaim 7,680 to unlock upside toward 7,710 and 7,716–7,720, with momentum potentially driving a sharper advance.
The S&P 500 has upside toward 7,716–7,720 and potentially a 7,797 backtest if that resistance zone clears, though profits should be taken aggressively.
The S&P is expected to endure a rocky ride until the midterm elections before rising to a new 8,000 high by year-end.
The S&P needs to reclaim 7716–7720 for bulls to regain control, while recoveries of 7680 remain actionable but require quick profit-taking.
The S&P has support at 7680 and could accelerate toward 7734, 7746, and 7797+ after clearing the 7716–20 area.
S&P 500 breadth has broadened since May, with equal-weight $RSP up 7.0% versus the cap-weighted S&P 500 up 1.8%.
The S&P 500 needs to clear 7716–7720 to trigger a hard squeeze toward 7734, 7746, and 7797+, while 7680 remains support.
The S&P futures reclaim of 7,680 triggered upside momentum, with 7,710, 7,716–20, 7,734, 7,746, and 7,794–97 as successive near-term targets.
US stock-market returns are broadening as July’s Quad 4 regime recedes and the market transitions into Quad 1.
The S&P 500 has historically recovered from even severe corrections and generally trends higher over the very long term, despite lengthy secular bear markets.
The S&P needs to recover 7,680 to begin its next leg higher following an extremely choppy, low-volatility trading session.
The S&P needs to recover 7680 with momentum to reach 7695, 7706, and 7716–20, with sustained upside only above that range.
The S&P needs to recover through 7,695, 7,706, and 7,716–20 for bulls to retake control after midday chop near 7,680.
ES futures reclaiming 7680 would trigger an upside move toward 7695, 7706, and 7716, though a defined trigger protocol remains necessary.
Equities are positive long-duration assets as investors value cash flows beyond seven years, supporting a structural constructive outlook.
The S&P futures setup turns higher if 7680 recovers, targeting 7695, 7706, and 7717–20 after the failed-breakdown entry.
Rising rates are not necessarily bearish for stocks, indicating the S&P 500 can remain resilient despite higher yields.
The S&P 500 remains in a secular bullish trend, making any short-to-intermediate-term pullback more likely a normal drawdown than a bear-market shift.
The S&P 500 remains in a beautiful uptrend following a fantastic early-August breakout, with in-line inflation data unlikely to derail the advance now.
The S&P 500 pullback has reached a support zone and could confirm a low Monday afternoon into Tuesday, then make a higher high.
The S&P 500 is unlike a typical midterm-year setup, while typical midterm years from this point averaged an 8.57% gain over the next six months.
The S&P futures bulls need to hold 7680 and then push higher toward 7716–7722 in the near term.
The S&P needs to clear 7716–22 to prevent bounces from being sold, with 7680 remaining important near-term support below.
The S&P needs to recover 7716–22 to restore bullish momentum, stop bounces from being sold, and resume moving higher.
S&P futures held 7680 support after a failed breakdown, with 7716–7722 next and upside targets at 7734, 7742, and 7758+.
The S&P 500 reclaimed the 7680 shelf overnight, making it support, with 7716–22 needing a momentum reclaim to extend the rally.
Stocks, particularly the S&P 500, should remain supported in 2026 as risk assets rise faster during this Fourth Turning, albeit with greater volatility.
The S&P 500 needs to reach 8,000 first, with no pullback expected before that milestone despite an unconventional-looking path higher.
The S&P 500 should remain strong through 2026, though Fourth Turning conditions imply greater volatility alongside elevated risk-asset returns.
The S&P offers an actionable upside setup if it recovers 7680, with gains managed by taking profits level to level.
The S&P requires recovery of 7716–7722 to restore bullish control and open a move toward 7730 or higher, after topping in that resistance area.
The S&P needs to recover 7716–22 to sustain a rally toward 7730 or higher after summer chop returned.
The S&P requires a reclaim of 7716–7722 to rally, while 7695 is a low-quality reclaim and 7683 then 7665 sit below.
The S&P needs to reclaim 7716–7722 to rally toward 7730, 7749, and 7758+, while 7709 and 7695 remain weak supports.
The S&P 500 remains bullish on its volatility-adjusted momentum signal, supported by a continuing risk-on market regime and maximum stock exposure.
The S&P 500 remains in an uptrend above rising longer-term moving averages, indicating a bullish broader market structure despite earlier-year correction risks.
Stocks remain a long-standing position rather than a fresh call, with the growing national debt continuing to reward that behavior.
The S&P 500’s failed breakdown supports a tactical upside continuation toward 7797 after targets at 7724, 7742, and 7758 were reached.
The S&P 500 recovered the 7716 shelf, reached the 7758 target, and has 7797 as the next magnet.
The S&P futures rebound from the 7716 failed-breakdown setup is expected to extend toward 7777 and then 7797 after initial upside targets were reached.
The S&P 500 futures bear-trap recovery through 7716 reached 7724, 7742, and 7758 targets, with 7797 remaining a magnet.
The S&P futures recovery from 7,716 reached 7,758, with 7,777 as a bonus objective and a 7,797 backtest still expected.
The S&P needs to reclaim 7716 to target 7724, 7738–42, and 7758, while a break below 7706 would trigger a sell setup.
The S&P 500 is sustaining a rising-market broadening as equal-weighted stocks outperform the Mag 7 by 1,300 basis points over three months.
ES requires recovery of 7738 to begin a rally toward the 7797 backtest, while 7716 serves as support and upside remains unlikely below 7738.
The market is broadening as 75% of stocks trade above their 200-day uptrends and both cap-weighted and equal-weighted indexes reach new highs.
ES needs to reclaim 7738 with momentum to target 7753, 7758, and 7777, while bears retain minor control below 7797.
S&P 500 has been higher one year later in 100% of historical cases, averaging a 12.99% gain for investors who stayed with the long-term trend.
The S&P 500 continues to broaden bullishly despite a weekly trading range shrinking to about 1%, supporting a constructive near-term market backdrop.
ES must recover 7797 to resume upside from 7777 support, while failure leaves 7758 as the next downside level amid exceptionally low volatility.
ES must reclaim 7797 to trigger upside toward 7805, 7820, and 7828+, while 7777 is the next notable support and may still produce traps.
ES futures need to reclaim 7797 to rally toward 7805, 7820, and 7828 or higher, while 7777 marks the next support.
ES remains in a large bull flag and could break above 7,838 toward 8,000 after a liquidity sweep, provided the 7,800 area holds.
ES is retesting Thursday’s 7794–97 bull-flag breakout, with 7797 as support and upside levels at 7805, 7820, and 7828+ amid choppy trading.
ES broke out of a bull flag and retested 7797 support, with 7820, 7828, and 7835 next upside targets while 7777 remains lower support.
ES holds 7797 as support after a bull-flag breakout, with 7828, 7835, and 7845 upside objectives if momentum extends.
S&P 500 strength near all-time highs makes a bearish stance difficult, despite the absence of the deeper pullback hoped for earlier this week.
Stocks remain in a secular bull market that could plausibly last until 2035, although the duration remains uncertain and investors should expect meaningful drawdowns.
NYSE stocks are showing broader upside participation as more issues move above their 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day moving averages for a second day.
ES bulls need to defend the 7794 breakout, which shifted from resistance earlier this week into support after the advance.
ES longs remain intact after breaking the week-long 7794–7724 flag, with 7794 defended on a back-test and 7820, 7828, and 7835+ overhead.
ES bull-flag breakout remains intact above 7794, targeting 7820, 7828, and 7835+, while a break could test 7777 as the first favorable long area.
$SPX making new all-time highs while AAII bulls remain at 35% is a constructive signal for further near-term upside.
ES bulls remain in control despite low-volatility August trading, with 7794 as a bull-flag backtest that needs recovery above 7797.
ES recovery offers a very low-quality long toward 7828 and 7835, while 7794 remains support below after the 7820 level failed.
ES has broken out of a 7794–7724 bull flag, with 7836, 7849, and 7856+ next while 7820 and 7794 serve as supports.
The S&P 500's all-time highs are framed positively heading into Friday, supporting a constructive near-term backdrop for US equities.
ES has broken out from a 7794–7724 bull flag, with 7836, 7849, and 7856+ next while 7820 and 7794 remain supports.
S&P 500 maintains a positive primary trend, with a break above 7,600 encouraging and momentum strong without appearing excessive.
S&P 500 trend remains positive, with a break above 7,600 encouraging and strong but not excessive momentum supporting further gains.
The S&P has broken out of consolidation, with the near-term trajectory expected to remain higher despite a potential Nasdaq-related headwind.
SPX is being lifted by crushed volatility through persistent negative gamma into next week, with the 7,900 to 8,000 area in focus.
ES broke above 7,794 resistance, reached 7,820 and 7,835 targets, and backtested roughly 7,794 before moving higher again.
ES completed a bull-flag breakout from the 7,794–7,725 range, with 7,794 defended on a backtest and 7,845 then 7,868 remaining upside targets.
ES is backtesting the 7,794 breakout zone after reaching 7,820 and 7,835, with 7,845 and 7,868 upside targets unless 7,794 fails and exposes 7,767.
Stocks rise in dollar terms under more explicit yield curve control, although the anticipated gains would not translate into strength against gold.
The stock market is expected to move higher as continued upside earnings surprises are supported by a resilient US economy.
Stocks have a great short-to-medium-term outlook in a risk-on reflation regime, with bubble-like equity-market conditions expected as nominal growth remains strong.
S&P 500 performance is expected to move higher as earnings continue surprising to the upside amid durable consumer spending and economic resilience.
$SPY could set up for its next leg higher after two to three more pullback days, stabilizing near 760 and prior resistance.
Stocks in the EU, Canada, and the US are at all-time highs, while money supply is also at a record level and the trend remains upward.
Stocks remain structurally supported by growth, liquidity and policy drivers, but face a summer-of-1998-style correction if monetary policy turns restrictive.
S&P 500 retains a constructive secular bull-market trend, supported by price above upward-sloping 50-day, 150-day, and 200-day moving averages.
S&P 500 price faces downside unless earnings continue growing 30–40%, with math, breadth, and valuation all signaling disagreement.
The S&P 500 lacks upside follow-through after repeatedly failing breakouts from its bull flag pattern and returning back inside it.
The S&P 500 secular bull market is expected to peak in the second half of 2027 or first half of 2028 before a global secular bear market.
The S&P could fall toward 6,690 in 2027 if earnings estimates weaken and elevated rates force valuation multiples down to 17x.
The S&P 500 faces 2027 downside risk if weaker forward earnings and multiple contraction trigger a repricing, with scenarios ranging from 7,280 to 6,690.
The S&P is holding 7758 support for a second time after reaching 7781, but the setup remains very weak with trap risk elevated.
The S&P 500 faces crash risk similar to 1973 and 1999/2000, when severely deteriorated market breadth preceded declines of nearly 50%.
Equity markets could become messy if geopolitical conditions remain unchanged heading into Democratic control of Congress, amid tax, AI-trade, and political-turmoil risks.
The average S&P 500 stock has reached new all-time highs for four consecutive months, while September is on pace to be the first decline since March.
Market breadth and rates signal a bearish tipping point for stocks, with weakening conditions raising downside risk for the S&P 500.
The $SPY masks broad equity weakness as elevated Treasury yields pressure rate-sensitive sectors, small caps, and equal-weight stocks beneath headline index highs.
The S&P 500 faces growing pressure from elevated Treasury yields, while mega-cap technology masks weakening equal-weight, small-cap, mid-cap, and rate-sensitive stocks.
Stock market strength is masking underlying breadth weakness beneath the surface despite record highs, signaling a less resilient near-term equity backdrop.
The S&P faces limited meaningful upside until market breadth improves, as roughly twice as many NYSE stocks declined as advanced beneath a flat index.
The S&P 500 has limited meaningful upside while breadth remains weak, with long-term indicators below levels consistent with bull markets.
Higher Treasury yields would hurt the S&P more severely as refinancing costs rise and capital rotates toward risk-free fixed income.
The S&P would fall 40% to 70% in an environment where 10-year Treasury yields rise to 8% and recession deepens.
The S&P 500 has formed an evening-star bearish reversal, while RSI failed below 60 and leaves the attempted breakout less convincing over the next one to three sessions.
Stocks will likely struggle over the next several months until the 10-year yield reaches a near-term peak, as higher rates remain equities’ dominant risk.
The S&P faces a 25% to 40% decline after the midterms, once support keeping markets together for roughly six more weeks fades.
The S&P 500 has flashed a bearish reversal pattern, while weak breadth and rising 10-year yields reinforce near-term warning signs.
The S&P 500's Evening Star reversal pattern implies the next one to three bars are more likely lower.
Equities historically underperform after equity risk premiums reach current lows, as investors favor roughly 5% Treasury yields over 2.8% compensation for equity risk.
U.S. stocks face mounting downside pressure as ten-year Treasury yields extend a powerful rise from above 5.1%, a long-standing position rather than a fresh call.
Stocks increasingly carry bond-like characteristics, implying diminished equity upside and greater sensitivity to interest-rate conditions over the medium term.
The S&P 500 lacks upside confirmation after its bull-flag breakout, with stalled follow-through and RSI still below 60.
The S&P 500 lacks a visible catalyst for its next bull-market leg as earnings-growth, AI, geopolitical, yield, and oil concerns sustain market churn.
The S&P 500 may remain constrained as investors resist paying up for potentially peak earnings growth, following sideways trading since early June.
The market cycle is likely to end in a secular bear market beginning in 2028, making that outcome the base case absent disconfirming evidence.
The S&P could face pressure over the next month or two if the Fed keeps hiking rates, consistent with typical post-hike market weakness.
The broader market is consolidating and could remain in a seasonal trough for another four weeks amid persistent market crosscurrents.
Stocks can face pressure during the first few months after Fed rate hikes before investors adjust to a higher-rate environment.
A breakdown of the fragile China truce or an AI-enabled security failure would be bearish for stocks despite the AI trade's current resilience.
The S&P 500 could fall if Middle East escalation drives oil and yields sharply higher, while a positive resolution would instead send futures to 8,000.
Stocks tend to struggle after the Fed starts hiking rates, with a median decline of roughly 4% over the following quarter before returns improve over 12 months.
S&P 500 closed below its bull-flag lower boundary and 5,600 support, leaving the chart guilty until proven innocent unless it recovers above that level tomorrow.
The S&P equity market needs some air taken out to reduce wealth-effect demand, while a renewed hiking cycle could pressure risk assets.
The S&P 500 faces renewed downside pressure as bears return, signaling a tactical bearish outlook for the broader U.S. equity market.
The S&P 500 closed below 7,600 as deteriorating breadth leaves its bull flag vulnerable to a more concerning breakdown after another down day.
S&P 500 faces a negative breakdown toward 7300 and its 200-day moving average if it follows through below 7600 over the next couple sessions.
Equities purchased at 40 times earnings are likely to generate low rates of return over the next 10 to 20 years.
The S&P 500 risks a bearish breakdown if it falls below clear support at the lower end of a potential bull flag pattern.
The S&P 500 faces a crucial decision point, and weak breadth plus technology weakness make an upside break above 7,720 less likely in coming days and weeks.
Equity markets are trading above their long-term exponential trend channel, a deviation historically followed by eventual price reversion despite uncertain timing.
Equities at historically stretched valuations could deliver only 0–2% annualized returns over the next 10–20 years during a secular adjustment.
$SPY’s short-term trend model has turned negative for the fourth time since the March 2026 low, raising the possibility that this decline differs from prior buyable dips.
Artificially suppressing rates in an inflationary environment could push interest rates toward 15% and drive the stock market down 50%.
The S&P 500 faces roughly zero long-term returns from current CAPE valuations, leaving expensive equities less attractive than nearly 5% Treasury yields.
The S&P 500 is likely to retreat aggressively toward recent swing lows or remain trapped in its down channel as bonds lead.
S&P 500 closing below 7,600 breaks a key line in the sand, with downside follow-through likely unless buyers reclaim 7,600 and the 50-day average.
S&P 500 closed below 7,600 support, but Friday’s follow-through will determine whether the break becomes a clearer downside breakdown.
Equity valuations are expected to decline during September as converging political, geopolitical, and monetary risks create a worsening market environment.
$SPY volume accelerated during a fourth consecutive down day, reinforcing a near-term bearish tape signal for US equity beta.
The S&P 500 is historically extended in a mature 16-year secular bull market, while nearly 5% Treasury yields provide meaningful competition for equity risk.
Stocks are not necessarily the primary asset likely to collapse during a broader financial break, but current market action remains poor and vulnerable.
The S&P 500 lacks follow-through from new-money buyers while rates and oil rise sharply, with inflation data and a likely FOMC hike posing near-term caution.
The S&P faces its next major leg lower if 7589 support fails, while sustained bounces require recovery above 7630.
The S&P 500 is trading well above its long-term trend channel and appears mature in a 16-year bull cycle, raising secular bear-trend risk.
The S&P’s bounces will be sold until 7,630 recovers, despite 7,589 holding as major bull-flag support and 7,603 reclaiming intraday.
The S&P needs to reclaim 7,630 to sustain a real rally, with 7,589 holding as macro bull-flag support after the 7,630 breakdown.
Equities are likely to underperform bonds as rising discount rates climb further and push both asset classes lower.
The S&P futures decline reached 7589, with 7603 needing to reclaim for 7630 and no meaningful rally expected until 7630 recovers.
The S&P needs to recover roughly 7630 to trigger a larger rebound toward 7649, 7659, and 7671 or higher, while 7589 is the next major downside level.
S&P 500 faces an initial breakdown scenario below 7,600, with 7,300 an important downside level to watch if that break becomes valid.
The S&P futures must recover 7630 to target 7649, 7658, and 7671+, while 7611, 7603, and major 7589 support lie below.
The S&P 500 could shift from grinding lower to dropping lower over the next week if oil continues rising, with 7,600 the key level.
S&P 500 is at a crucial technical support boundary, where a breakdown would shift its sideways basing pattern into a bearish chart.
S&P futures remain vulnerable below 7649 support, with 7638 reached and 7618 next; a proper rally still requires reclaiming 7671.
The S&P would revolt if 10-year Treasury yields abruptly jump from 4.7% to 6%, because equities cannot absorb that sharp rate-of-change shock.
$SPY faces September downside risk from Russian escalation, an Iran-driven oil spike, Fed hawkishness, higher yields, and European vulnerability.
A cluster of geopolitical and AI-related risks could drive stocks lower, creating asymmetric downside despite markets pricing favorable September seasonality.
The S&P 500 remains in a bullish trend, but seasonal and market headwinds are mounting into next week during seasonally weak September.
Stocks face downside pressure because higher oil prices could choke AI investment, posing a material headwind to broader market momentum.
Stocks are expected to return about 6% long term, while non-AI stocks face high valuations and AI stocks carry risk of a 50%-plus drawdown.
The S&P 500’s elevated valuations historically signal poor 10-year forward returns, potentially around -2.6%, despite AI’s transformative potential and intervening rallies.
S&P 500 buy-and-hold returns are likely to be zero or slightly negative over the next decade from current valuations, despite potentially large intervening rallies.
The S&P 500 lacks the expanding 52-week-high breadth that typically validates a healthy bull market, leaving the September 2026 advance technically unconfirmed.
$SPY shows bearish Chaikin Money Flow, with daily volume indicating distribution over accumulation and behavior consistent with prior market pullbacks.
The S&P 500 faces a possible 3%, 5%, or even 10% correction before the election as September seasonality and policy uncertainty raise risks.
The overall market faces elevated risk through September and into the election, with a 3%, 5%, or 10% drawdown possible rather than a 20% decline.
$SPY remains a core short with a lower price target while lower highs and lower lows persist, though most of the position has been covered.
The S&P 500 is moving toward its 50-DMA as September seasonality, corporate buyback blackouts, and quarter-end repositioning add downside risk.
The S&P faces bearish control below 7,714, with bounces expected to fail after one or two levels unless 7,637 support holds.
$SPY remains in a downtrend, with a core short position retained for further near-term weakness despite the potential for interim bounces.
S&P is testing key support after a rough start to September, while thinning breadth and rising yields reinforce a near-term fragile technical setup.
The S&P remains under bearish control unless it reclaims 7,714 and 7,737, while 7,671 capped the latest intraday advance.
The S&P futures recovery has stalled at 7671, with bears retaining control below 7714 and downside supports at 7637, 7628, and 7611.
The S&P 500 has topped near 7671, with bears retaining control below 7714 and downside support levels at 7628 and 7611.
$SPY could face an ugly afternoon while battling the Leo low AVWAP and remaining below the flat-to-declining five-period moving average.
The S&P has stopped making new highs and formed lower peaks on Thursday and Friday, signaling an emerging technical weakness despite holding up.
The S&P remains under bearish control below 7714, with bounces likely to struggle unless 7659 is reclaimed and downside levels at 7637 and 7628 remain in play.
September equity markets are already hinting at near-term weakness, favoring patience rather than an immediate risk-taking response in the coming sessions.
The S&P remains under bear control below 7714, while a reclaim of 7659 opens 7671, 7684, and 7695 or higher.
The S&P remains under bearish control below 7714, with 7649 as support and 7637 then 7628 as downside levels unless 7671 is reclaimed.
Stocks are trading poorly alongside falling bonds and a weaker dollar, a combination that could signal a much more severe market breakdown.
The S&P 500 remains controlled by bears below 7714, leaving rebounds likely to struggle after recoveries toward 7704 and 7714-plus.
The S&P remains controlled by bears below 7714, with bounces likely to struggle and fizzle unless that level is recovered.
The S&P risks retesting 7,500 if ES breaks below 7,655 to 7,660, while the current downtrend remains intact.
The S&P 500 enters September, one of the year's seasonally weakest months, after earnings season ended and corporate buybacks returned.
Stocks face downside as higher oil prices tighten the constraint on risk assets despite support from the Bessent put.
US stocks are expected to decline over the near term, with gold and long bonds also projected to weaken materially.
The S&P could rotate lower amid market instability, making lower-volatility defensive sectors such as REITs relatively protective against benchmark declines.
Stocks face a secular bear market if substantial redistributive policies, including higher taxes on the rich and greater spending on the poor, are adopted.
The S&P 500 faces a coming secular bear market that could leave buy-and-hold portfolios deeply underwater for years before recovering to break even.
The S&P remains pressured lower unless 7680 reclaims, with 7645–50 below and a rally requiring a move above 7680.
The S&P futures setup is very weak and used up after another 7680 trap, with 7645–50 below as the near-term downside level.
The S&P remains under bear control unless 7716–7722 recovers, while 7680 support is exhausted after producing only a 20-point morning bounce.
S&P futures remain in slow summer chop, with bears retaining full intraday control unless 7716–7722 is recovered; 7680 has become support.
The S&P faces investor selling after the Treasury bailout announcement alerts investors who had not recognized the underlying market problem.
The S&P remains under bearish control unless 7680 is reclaimed, with recovery through 7716–7722 needed to support a rally toward 7797.
The S&P remains in a near-term decline after failing to reclaim 7716–22, with 7665 below and a 7695 reclaim needed for a pop.
The S&P remains bear-controlled unless it recovers 7716-22, while a reclaim would open upside toward 7730, 7740, and 7758+.
Stocks will underperform gold and Bitcoin over the next three to five years as Federal Reserve independence erodes and yield curve control expands.
Stocks face a rapidly accelerating risk of a transitory correction as long-duration debt worries intensify around inflation and financing AI capital expenditure.
ES futures remain bearish below 7797, with 7738 needing recovery and 7707 then 7695 serving as downside levels unless a high-momentum failed breakdown develops.
The S&P has no rally setup unless 7,738 reclaims after repeated resistance, while 7,797 remains the bull-bear line following this week's failed breakout.
ES remains below the 7797 bull-bear line, leaving bounces less sustainable unless 7738 recovers and opens a rally toward 7753, 7758, and 7777+.
ES failed after breaking above the 7,797 bull-flag level and needs to reclaim 7,738 to restore bullish control, with 7,724 serving as support.
The S&P faces a likely failed breakout and test of the liquidation-low VWAP after steady overnight selling pushed futures below declining five-period moving averages.
ES futures remain under minor bearish control below 7797, with 7738 needing to reclaim before upside levels at 7753, 7758, and 7777 come into play.
Stocks may face wider equity risk premia in the months ahead as AI CapEx-related debt issuance increasingly crowds out sovereign debt and raises capital costs.
The S&P 500 faces continued downside as the inflation trade drives higher gold, silver, oil, and bond yields amid weakening Fed credibility.
ES faces a continued near-term grind lower toward 7758 unless the 7777 failed-breakdown setup triggers an evening entry.
The S&P faces an unfavorable risk-reward setup, with roughly 3% upside toward 8,000 versus a potential 5–10% downside.
The S&P 500 could see a blow-off top, but is likely stuck for several days through options expiry before any further advance.
The market has reached record highs with broader participation and improved sentiment, but investors should take some chips off the table rather than chase the rally.
A secular bear market has a reasonably high probability of following the AI bubble's eventual peak and could take years or decades to recover from.
The S&P 500 faces elevated secular-bear-market risk after an AI-driven bubble, with rapidly rising retail margin debt historically preceding severe market declines.
The market could decline 20% to 25% after the midterms into the first quarter of 2027 as political incentives to support prices diminish.
Risk asset markets face a difficult period as stronger economic activity, fading liquidity and prospective Federal Reserve tightening recreate conditions unfavorable for equities.
Rising bond yields and potentially higher energy prices warrant reduced equity beta exposure, as the liquidity downswing creates a difficult environment for risk assets.
The S&P faces a generally range-bound year with limited upside and downside risk as slowing liquidity pressures valuations and financial-market returns.
The S&P 500's spot-up, vol-up dynamic is unstable, can produce V-tops, and reflects a later stage of the bull market.
The S&P 500 futures target at 7780–87 has been reached at macro bull-flag resistance, with 7789, 7803, and 7812 remaining potential extension levels.
The S&P has retraced the press-conference move and looks better than yesterday’s close, but the current channel leaves the near-term outlook largely unchanged.
The S&P 500 futures have returned to rangebound trading, with 7,620 resistance and roughly 7,595 support; breaks lower expose 7,588 and 7,568.
$SPY is included in a technical market analysis for the week ending September 11, 2026, without a stated directional conclusion.
The S&P 500 has formed lower highs and lower lows after its all-time high, needing to settle before determining whether it can reach new highs.
The S&P needs to reclaim 7722 to rally, while 7695 is support and a low-volatility holiday session is likely to trap most setups.
The S&P futures has resistance at 7659 and 7671, while 7637 remains support after a sweep that could produce traps.
The S&P is likely to remain in a broad trading range until late fall, with seasonally stronger market conditions typically arriving from November through February.
ES has reached the 7790 area near last week’s VWAP, but light volume and no meaningful buyer or seller response leave the setup unconfirmed.
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