Analysts

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The picture is unchanged: deficit-funded transfers and consumption continue to underpin profits and a consumption-led economy. But the underlying growth quality looks weaker, with net investment lagging headline measures and AI spending shifting toward short-lived assets, potentially deepening housing and infrastructure underinvestment. The AI boom also leaves a widening gap between market strength and the wealth gains felt by most households.

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The picture is unchanged: September policy remains finely balanced, with even an in-line inflation print seen as enough to keep a rate increase in play. The key tension is that if the Fed holds back to reassure markets, the long end could still push yields higher after the initial inflation-data move.

The focus is on fiscal deterioration: debt is rising sharply both over the past month and over the past year as spending and deficits remain elevated. Inflation is also described as having moved higher over the year, alongside the absence of the proposed tariff dividend for lower- and middle-income households.

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Boockvar flags a near-term Bank of Japan rate hike as increasingly plausible, potentially as soon as September or October. He also argues inflation pressure should not be judged solely through CPI: producer-cost strain remains relevant even where firms lack the pricing power to pass it on.

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No Catch-Up Yet.

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The picture is unchanged: stronger earnings, lower valuations than the late-1990s episode and improving breadth support the broader equity backdrop. That does not extend cleanly to financials, which still face a long-term relative downtrend versus the S&P 500.

The picture is unchanged: policy is still seen as modestly accommodative, but cyclical tightening would be expected to cool nominal growth, ease yield pressure and reduce bond-market volatility rather than trigger a bond blowup. AI financing dynamics could continue to inflate AI-related valuations, even as broader earnings expectations appear to assume productivity gains that may arrive too slowly for end adopters.

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The outlook is sharply cautious on underlying growth: stripped of AI-related construction and investment, the economy is described as contracting, while rising small-business bankruptcies point to broader post-COVID strain. AI is framed less as a durable support than an investment vulnerable to rapid obsolescence from cheaper Chinese alternatives. Fiscal concerns compound the picture, with debt nearing $40 trillion and any expansion of direct payments seen as a route back to high inflation and still greater borrowing.

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Cooler PPI has eased expectations of a September Fed hike, with markets now assigning a materially lower chance of tightening. The near-term policy backdrop looks less restrictive, though the view remains contingent on incoming inflation data holding that softer tone.

Inflation is expected to stay subdued rather than break into a spiral, with the latest downside surprise outweighing the signal from still-elevated bond yields.

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The picture is unchanged: sovereign debt stress ultimately forces more explicit yield curve control, capping Treasury yields while shifting adjustment pressure onto the dollar. That combination is expected to lift inflation and support gold, bonds and stocks in dollar terms, though equities are not expected to keep pace with gold. Bitcoin may also benefit eventually, but protocol, custody and technology-correlation risks remain material.

Poland’s July inflation reading sits above target, and Hanke argues money growth remains too strong to be consistent with durable price stability. The concern is less the single 3.0% print than M3 expansion running well above the rate he sees as target-consistent.

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The Fed may be at peak hawkishness, but labor and inflation surprises still argue for policy to stay unchanged longer before the tone eases. That macro restraint sits alongside a more cautious read on earnings, where circular financing could expose weaker underlying quality and pressure valuations for some companies.

Near term, compressed volatility around August expiration is seen giving way to a volatility decline into September, with August 19 flagged as the opening window. Further out, the view turns sharply more cautious on equities after the midterms, with a potential market decline expected to trigger renewed liquidity support. That policy response is framed as ultimately lifting both liquidity and inflation.

The broader technical backdrop remains constructive, supported by the S&P 500’s positive trend and improving setups across semis, media, telecom and Apollo, while Microsoft’s prior breakout remains an important line in the sand. Contained inflation is easing September hike expectations, lifting Treasuries and weighing on gold, while reduced Middle East supply-risk concerns are pressuring crude. The notable exceptions are AppLovin’s broken technical structure and Amazon’s post-earnings underperformance, even as the AI build-out is seen as offering opportunity despite bubble risk.

Near-term market mechanics remain supportive: compressed SPY volatility and persistent negative gamma are seen lifting the index into next week, with 7,900–8,000 the area in focus. The caveat is that unusually cheap short-dated volatility sits alongside firmer longer-dated demand ahead of Jackson Hole, leaving next week’s expiration as a potential release point for volatility.

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ES has cleared 7,794 resistance, met the 7,820 and 7,835 objectives, and held a backtest of the breakout area before pushing higher again. The near-term setup remains constructive while that former resistance continues to act as support.

The emphasis remains on established exposure to QTUM, IPAY and software through IGV, not fresh calls. QTUM is framed as fitting a Quad Shift backdrop, while recent gains in IPAY and IGV are cited as validation of positions put on earlier; XLRE and IAK are being removed.

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Expedia’s near-term technical picture remains constructive after clearing its January highs, although the more attractive risk-reward may come on pullbacks later in the year. The view is unchanged.

Consumer Staples relative performance remains weak, so the usual defensive leadership associated with deteriorating market conditions is not showing up. The picture points away from XLP acting as a broader risk-warning signal for now.

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The near-term read is constructive on the S&P after its consolidation breakout, but Nasdaq looks vulnerable to a modest pullback unless it can clear 30,804 and reopen the path to its all-time high. Gold is also seen resuming its longer-term advance after a trendline break, with pullbacks toward 4,371 or 4,230 framed as potential reset points.

The picture is one of softer underlying growth and labor conditions, with weaker payroll revisions and slowing wages reinforcing disinflationary pressure and making a September Fed hike unlikely. Oil’s Iran-war-driven rebound could still lift the next CPI print temporarily, but that is framed as a near-term energy effect rather than a broader inflation reacceleration. Against that backdrop, the rally looks vulnerable to crowded retail re-entry rather than something to chase.

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The picture is unchanged: fiscal strain is framed as pushing the Fed toward renewed Treasury purchases and broader money creation. The added emphasis is that a near-term move to $40 trillion in national debt could feed through to higher consumer prices, while a recent balance-sheet expansion is cited as evidence that liquidity is already turning up.

The picture remains broadly constructive, but the preferred setup is patience through controlled pullbacks and higher-low bases rather than chasing strength. Bitcoin is framed as having formed a durable low, while equities—from the major indexes to semis and selected names—need support to hold before another advance can develop. Zeta is the exception: its recent run looks overstretched and may need a deeper reset.

The picture is unchanged: AI and broader equities remain supported by the compute build, record-high markets and abundant money supply. The preference is for Nasdaq exposure over the Dow, with short positioning seen as a tailwind for QQQ, while the Dow is viewed as vulnerable on crowded positioning and weak price action. Copper is the other weak link, with crowded longs and an inability to hold gains despite favorable news.

The picture is unchanged: Japan’s inflation looks more like a mix of imported-cost and supply shocks than durable domestic demand, with households cutting back as incomes fail to keep pace. That weak consumption and limited domestic returns keep capital moving abroad, pressuring the yen despite intervention and making Japanese bonds less compelling as yields rise alongside capital-loss and financial-stability risks.

Wage growth firmed in July, with the Atlanta Fed tracker rising to 3.8%. The gap remains notable: workers changing jobs are still seeing stronger pay gains than those staying put.

The setup leans on disinflation broadening across goods, energy and services, which would weaken the dollar and support spillovers into high-beta risk assets through late Q3 and early Q4. The Fed is still expected to hold steady, with limited evidence so far that the Iran war has generated a meaningful second inflation wave.

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Gold is building momentum as a defensive allocation within diversified portfolios, supporting a constructive near-term outlook for bullion alongside equities.

0 current views. 0 bull, 0 neutral, 0 bear. No current view.

0 current views. 0 bull, 0 neutral, 0 bear. No current view.

No Catch-Up Yet.

No Catch-Up Yet.