Fed Policy

Warsh cannot be hawkish because federal interest, entitlement, and defense spending already consumes roughly 120% of near-record federal receipts, making tighter policy mathematically impossible.

September rate-hike expectations are likely to decline after softer retail sales, inflation, and labor data, implying an easier expected Fed-policy path.

The Fed will expand money creation to buy Treasuries as the national debt approaches $40 trillion, a long-standing position rather than a fresh call.

US policy rates are likely to rise within months as elevated two-year Treasury yields signal tightening and strong nominal growth pushes market rates higher.

Fed policy has likely reached peak hawkishness, although rates may remain on hold for longer as inflation and labor surprises shape policymakers’ tone.

The Fed should deliver a quarter-point move soon because it would restore credibility while doing less harm to the economy than continued inaction.

Federal Reserve policy has a surprisingly dovish outcome ahead over the next three to six months, as task-force recommendations are likely to favor structural easing.

Bank of Japan rates need to rise at a more aggressive pace to correct the interest-rate differentials driving persistent yen weakness.

The Fed should be tightening through rate hikes and balance-sheet reduction rather than expanding its balance sheet, with inflation averaging 4% annually since 2019.

The Fed appears unable to lower rates and lacks sufficient impetus to raise them, leaving policy effectively unchanged for now.

September rate-hike odds are falling as inflation data remains contained, with expectations shifting toward October or potentially later meetings.

Bank of Japan likely has political clearance for a near-term rate hike, with the next move potentially arriving in September or October.

Federal Reserve has a 50/50 chance of raising rates in September, with consensus inflation or a slight beat likely sufficient to preserve that outcome.