DEALER GAMMA · VOL
Cem Karsan
Dealer gamma, vanna, charm, volatility supply/demand and market reflexivity.
Catch-Up
Near term, compressed volatility around August expiration is seen giving way to a volatility decline into September, with August 19 flagged as the opening window. Further out, the view turns sharply more cautious on equities after the midterms, with a potential market decline expected to trigger renewed liquidity support. That policy response is framed as ultimately lifting both liquidity and inflation.
A daily catch-up of talking heads, in fifteen minutes.
Current Views
Cem Karsan DEALER GAMMA · VOLVolatility is compressed into August options expiration, with a window opening August 19 and an expected roughly 10% decline in volatility through September.
Cem Karsan DEALER GAMMA · VOLThe market could decline 20% to 25% after the midterms into the first quarter of 2027 as political incentives to support prices diminish.
Cem Karsan DEALER GAMMA · VOLInflation would rise after a major market decline prompts liquidity support through quantitative easing and large-scale asset purchases.
Cem Karsan DEALER GAMMA · VOLLiquidity would increase through quantitative easing and large-scale asset purchases if a major market decline forces a policy response.
Wordcloud
Direction By Day
| 01 AUG | 02 AUG | 03 AUG | 04 AUG | 05 AUG | 06 AUG | 07 AUG | 08 AUG | 09 AUG | 10 AUG | 11 AUG | 12 AUG | 13 AUG | 14 AUG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
| Liquidity | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
| Positioning & Vol | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
| SPY | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ |
Sentiment Heatmap
| 01 AUG | 02 AUG | 03 AUG | 04 AUG | 05 AUG | 06 AUG | 07 AUG | 08 AUG | 09 AUG | 10 AUG | 11 AUG | 12 AUG | 13 AUG | 14 AUG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inflation | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
| Liquidity | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
| Positioning & Vol | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
| SPY | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ |
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