DEALER GAMMA · VOL
Cem Karsan
As of 28 September 2026, Cem Karsan holds 20 current views on Headge, 9 Bullish, 11 Bearish. The latest is Bearish on Positioning & Vol over 1 Week. Every view links to the original post or video.
Dealer gamma, vanna, charm, volatility supply/demand and market reflexivity.
VIEWS 2
LAST PUBLISHED 20H AGO
Catch-Up
Generated 08:00 ET
The picture is increasingly focused on a near-term withdrawal of market support exposing fragility beneath the surface, with volatility and positioning risk rising before policymakers respond. That framework also underpins a much larger post-midterms downside call for the S&P once the forces holding markets together fade.
At Generation 0 Bull · 0 Neutral · 2 Bearish
Mix By Horizon
1 Week
0 BULL 0 NEUT 1 BEAR
1 Month
0 BULL 0 NEUT 1 BEAR
1 Year
0 BULL 0 NEUT 0 BEAR
New Views
Positioning & Vol
BEARISH
Market-support withdrawal could allow under-the-hood stress to surface before a policy response, raising near-term volatility and positioning risk. WeekHeld
SPY
BEARISH
The S&P faces a 25% to 40% decline after the midterms, once support keeping markets together for roughly six more weeks fades. MonthA daily catch-up of talking heads, in fifteen minutes.
Sentiment Graph
Today
SENTIMENT GRAPH
Current Views
ANALYSTDIRECTIONTOPICSUMMARYHORIZONFRESH
Cem Karsan DEALER GAMMA · VOL BEARISH Strong
Positioning & Vol Market-support withdrawal could allow under-the-hood stress to surface before a policy response, raising near-term volatility and positioning risk. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 20h Cem Karsan DEALER GAMMA · VOL BEARISH Strong
SPY The S&P faces a 25% to 40% decline after the midterms, once support keeping markets together for roughly six more weeks fades. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 4d Cem Karsan DEALER GAMMA · VOL BEARISH Moderate
AI AI faces a likely post-midterm “accident” amid regulatory capture and coordinated industry efforts to slow development and emphasize responsible oversight. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 7d Cem Karsan DEALER GAMMA · VOL BEARISH Moderate
TLT Long Treasury yields should remain higher as improved growth expectations lift yields, while a Fed hike would ultimately raise rather than lower risk premia. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 13d Cem Karsan DEALER GAMMA · VOL EASIER Strong
Fed Policy Fed policy should become more dovish as inflation data and forecasts decline, while a hike would represent an incoherent reaction function. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 13d Cem Karsan DEALER GAMMA · VOL LOWER Strong
Inflation Core inflation is on track to return to target in about a year as core PCE moving averages decline and converge toward lower CPI readings. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 13d Cem Karsan DEALER GAMMA · VOL BEARISH Moderate
TLT U.S. 10-year Treasury yields have jumped to their highest level since the run-up to the Global Financial Crisis, pressuring long-duration Treasury prices. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 13d Cem Karsan DEALER GAMMA · VOL BULLISH Moderate
IGV $IGV is acting as a flight to safety as software names lead the market intraday, despite the recent narrative that AI will hurt software. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 14d Cem Karsan DEALER GAMMA · VOL BULLISH Strong
AI AI capex remains underpinned by government-backed strategic investment and implicit Trump puts, supporting the scale and speed of hyperscaler spending through 2028. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 15d Cem Karsan DEALER GAMMA · VOL LOWER Moderate
Positioning & Vol Republican consumer sentiment is collapsing despite a Republican White House, marking a meaningful deterioration in survey-based market mood. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 17d Cem Karsan DEALER GAMMA · VOL LOWER Moderate
Positioning & Vol Volatility should compress through next week’s Fed meeting and September 18 expiration, with supportive flows persisting unless the market unpins into Friday. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 17d Cem Karsan DEALER GAMMA · VOL HIGHER Moderate
Liquidity Trump administration policy is positioned to inject a massive amount of liquidity, potentially pumping markets ahead of the midterm elections. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 20d Cem Karsan DEALER GAMMA · VOL HIGHER Moderate
Liquidity Liquidity conditions are set to increase, with money printing expected to support market conditions in the coming period. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 20d Cem Karsan DEALER GAMMA · VOL HIGHER Strong
Tariffs & Geopolitics Trump tariffs are portrayed as illegally imposed charges that raised consumer costs without creating jobs, while refund rights enriched politically connected interests. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 25d Cem Karsan DEALER GAMMA · VOL HIGHER Strong
Liquidity Long-end quantitative easing and a trillion-dollar sovereign wealth fund are expected next year during a decline, marking a long-standing structural thesis rather than a fresh call. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 26d Cem Karsan DEALER GAMMA · VOL EASIER Moderate
Fed Policy Fed policy is unlikely to tighten into a supply shock, while recent hawkish rhetoric primarily defends the dollar rather than signals imminent rate hikes. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 27d Cem Karsan DEALER GAMMA · VOL BULLISH Strong
USO Brent crude has surged above $90 per barrel after U.S. strikes on Iran, raising near-term oil-market pressure around the Strait of Hormuz. LEVELS · TARGET 90
Week 28d Cem Karsan DEALER GAMMA · VOL BEARISH Strong
GLD Gold is expected to decline over the near term, with long bonds and US stocks also projected to weaken materially. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 30d Cem Karsan DEALER GAMMA · VOL BEARISH Strong
TLT Long bonds are expected to decline over the near term, with gold and US stocks also projected to weaken materially. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 30d Cem Karsan DEALER GAMMA · VOL BEARISH Strong
SPY US stocks are expected to decline over the near term, with gold and long bonds also projected to weaken materially. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 30dWordcloud
S&PSupportMarketAllowDeclineFacesFadesKeepingMarket-SupportMarketsMidtermsNear-TermPolicyPositioningRaisingResponseRiskRoughlySixStressSurfaceTogetherVolatilityWeeksWithdrawal
Direction By Day
| 15 SEP | 16 SEP | 17 SEP | 18 SEP | 19 SEP | 20 SEP | 21 SEP | 22 SEP | 23 SEP | 24 SEP | 25 SEP | 26 SEP | 27 SEP | 28 SEP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | · | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | · | · |
| Fed Policy | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| IGV | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Inflation | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Positioning & Vol | ▼ | ▼ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ |
| SPY | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ |
| TLT | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Sentiment Heatmap
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| AI | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | · | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | · | · |
| Fed Policy | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| IGV | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Inflation | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Positioning & Vol | ▼ | ▼ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ |
| SPY | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ |
| TLT | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
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