Editorial Representation of Chris Ciovacco
EDITORIAL REPRESENTATION

TREND · CYCLE

Chris Ciovacco

Evidence-based weekly trend and cycle reviews across equities, bonds and risk assets.

VIEWS 2
LAST PUBLISHED 1D AGO

Catch-Up

Generated 08:00 ET

The picture is unchanged: stronger earnings, lower valuations than the late-1990s episode and improving breadth support the broader equity backdrop. That does not extend cleanly to financials, which still face a long-term relative downtrend versus the S&P 500.

At Generation 1 Higher · 0 Neutral · 1 Bearish
Mix By Horizon
1 Week
1 Month
1 Year
Held
Earnings
HIGHER
Earnings are stronger than during the 1998–2000 period, while valuations are lower and current equity-market breadth is broadening rather than narrowing. Month
XLF
BEARISH
Financials have substantial work remaining before reversing their long-term downtrend relative to the S&P 500, indicating continued relative weakness. Year

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Current Views

ANALYSTDIRECTIONTOPICSUMMARYHORIZONFRESH
Editorial Representation of Chris Ciovacco Chris Ciovacco TREND · CYCLE
HIGHER Moderate
Earnings
Earnings are stronger than during the 1998–2000 period, while valuations are lower and current equity-market breadth is broadening rather than narrowing. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 1d
Editorial Representation of Chris Ciovacco Chris Ciovacco HIGHER Moderate
Earnings Month 1d

Earnings are stronger than during the 1998–2000 period, while valuations are lower and current equity-market breadth is broadening rather than narrowing.

Editorial Representation of Chris Ciovacco Chris Ciovacco TREND · CYCLE
BEARISH Moderate
XLF
Financials have substantial work remaining before reversing their long-term downtrend relative to the S&P 500, indicating continued relative weakness. DIRECTION ONLY $XLF
Year 4d
Editorial Representation of Chris Ciovacco Chris Ciovacco BEARISH Moderate
XLF Year 4d

Financials have substantial work remaining before reversing their long-term downtrend relative to the S&P 500, indicating continued relative weakness.

$XLF
Editorial Representation of Chris Ciovacco Chris Ciovacco TREND · CYCLE
BULLISH Strong
SPY
S&P 500 retains a constructive secular bull-market trend, supported by price above upward-sloping 50-day, 150-day, and 200-day moving averages. DIRECTION ONLY $SPY
Month 6d
Editorial Representation of Chris Ciovacco Chris Ciovacco BULLISH Strong
SPY Month 6d

S&P 500 retains a constructive secular bull-market trend, supported by price above upward-sloping 50-day, 150-day, and 200-day moving averages.

$SPY
Editorial Representation of Chris Ciovacco Chris Ciovacco TREND · CYCLE
BULLISH Moderate
GLD
Gold remains favored on a long-term basis despite its pullback, though incremental additions warrant patience until resistance near prior volume-weighted entry areas clears. DIRECTION ONLY $GLD
Month 6d
Editorial Representation of Chris Ciovacco Chris Ciovacco BULLISH Moderate
GLD Month 6d

Gold remains favored on a long-term basis despite its pullback, though incremental additions warrant patience until resistance near prior volume-weighted entry areas clears.

$GLD
Editorial Representation of Chris Ciovacco Chris Ciovacco TREND · CYCLE
BULLISH Moderate
HYG
BKLN, representing riskier credit, is confirming the S&P 500 advance by printing a new high after participating in the earlier 2026 rollover. DIRECTION ONLY $HYG
Month 6d
Editorial Representation of Chris Ciovacco Chris Ciovacco BULLISH Moderate
HYG Month 6d

BKLN, representing riskier credit, is confirming the S&P 500 advance by printing a new high after participating in the earlier 2026 rollover.

$HYG
Editorial Representation of Chris Ciovacco Chris Ciovacco TREND · CYCLE
BEARISH Moderate
IWM
Small caps relative to large caps appear to be stalling near a downward-sloping 200-week moving average within an existing relative downtrend, not signaling a forecast. DIRECTION ONLY $IWM
Month 6d
Editorial Representation of Chris Ciovacco Chris Ciovacco BEARISH Moderate
IWM Month 6d

Small caps relative to large caps appear to be stalling near a downward-sloping 200-week moving average within an existing relative downtrend, not signaling a forecast.

$IWM
Editorial Representation of Chris Ciovacco Chris Ciovacco TREND · CYCLE
BULLISH Moderate
AI
Tech and AI underperformance still appears to reflect healthy market rotation, with broader participation supporting the constructive assessment rather than signaling deterioration. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 6d
Editorial Representation of Chris Ciovacco Chris Ciovacco BULLISH Moderate
AI Month 6d

Tech and AI underperformance still appears to reflect healthy market rotation, with broader participation supporting the constructive assessment rather than signaling deterioration.

Editorial Representation of Chris Ciovacco Chris Ciovacco TREND · CYCLE
BULLISH Strong
QQQ
Nasdaq Composite still appears to be completing a successful bullish breakout and retest, with the case strengthening the longer price remains above weekly cloud resistance. DIRECTION ONLY $QQQ
Month 6d
Editorial Representation of Chris Ciovacco Chris Ciovacco BULLISH Strong
QQQ Month 6d

Nasdaq Composite still appears to be completing a successful bullish breakout and retest, with the case strengthening the longer price remains above weekly cloud resistance.

$QQQ

Wordcloud

EarningsFinancialsRelativeBreadthBroadeningContinuedCurrentDowntrendDuringEquity-MarketIndicatingLong-TermNarrowingPeriodRemainingReversingS&PStrongerSubstantialValuationsWeaknessWork

Direction By Day

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Sentiment Heatmap

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