TREND · CYCLE
Chris Ciovacco
As of 28 September 2026, Chris Ciovacco holds 20 current views on Headge, 16 Bullish, 4 Bearish. The latest is Bearish on SPY over 1 Month. Every view links to the original post or video.
Evidence-based weekly trend and cycle reviews across equities, bonds and risk assets.
VIEWS 10
LAST PUBLISHED 2D AGO
Catch-Up
Generated 08:00 ET
The picture is unchanged: technology, AI, the Nasdaq 100 and $XLF retain constructive leadership, while the Dow has potential support and Bitcoin needs to clear its moving-average cluster. The tension remains under the surface, with weak NYSE breadth, soft high-yield credit and a possible 10-year yield breakout raising downside risk for stocks. Those warnings merit attention, but they do not yet confirm the secular bull market has ended.
At Generation 6 Bullish · 0 Neutral · 4 Bearish
Mix By Horizon
1 Week
0 BULL 0 NEUT 3 BEAR
1 Month
6 BULL 0 NEUT 1 BEAR
1 Year
0 BULL 0 NEUT 0 BEAR
Held
SPY
BEARISH
Market breadth and rates signal a bearish tipping point for stocks, with weakening conditions raising downside risk for the S&P 500. Month DIA
BULLISH
The Dow has potential support at prior resistance and its moving-average cluster, while travel and tourism remain in healthy consolidation above a rising 200-week average. Month BTC
BULLISH
Bitcoin's monthly RSI is attempting to cross 50, a historically bullish tendency, though price still needs to clear its moving-average cluster. Month XLK
BULLISH
Technology leadership remains strong, with tech-heavy ETFs dominating multi-timeframe rankings and short-term measures showing broad strength across related funds. Month XLF
BULLISH
$XLF recently reached a new all-time high, unlike the financial-sector weakness that preceded the S&P 500 peak in 2022. Month AI
BULLISH
Artificial intelligence and technology stocks have recovered above the 38.2% retracement, with weekly relative strength looking better than January 2022. Month QQQ
BULLISH
Nasdaq 100 relative strength versus the S&P 500 has broken out and remains above a rising 200-day moving average, unlike early 2022. Month HYG
BEARISH
$JNK below its 200-day moving average warrants realistic expectations, with concerns increasing if weakness becomes sustained and the trend slope rolls over. Week TLT
BEARISH
The 10-year yield is attempting a breakout from its 2023 range, and a sustained move above nearby resistance would materially increase market concerns. Week Positioning & Vol
LOWER
NYSE stock-market breadth remains weak at the September 25 close, warranting closer attention but not confirming that the secular bull market has ended. WeekA daily catch-up of talking heads, in fifteen minutes.
Sentiment Graph
Today
SENTIMENT GRAPH
Current Views
ANALYSTDIRECTIONTOPICSUMMARYHORIZONFRESH
Chris Ciovacco TREND · CYCLE BEARISH Moderate
SPY Market breadth and rates signal a bearish tipping point for stocks, with weakening conditions raising downside risk for the S&P 500. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 2d Chris Ciovacco TREND · CYCLE BULLISH Moderate
DIA The Dow has potential support at prior resistance and its moving-average cluster, while travel and tourism remain in healthy consolidation above a rising 200-week average. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 2d Chris Ciovacco TREND · CYCLE BULLISH Weak
BTC Bitcoin's monthly RSI is attempting to cross 50, a historically bullish tendency, though price still needs to clear its moving-average cluster. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 2d Chris Ciovacco TREND · CYCLE BULLISH Moderate
XLK Technology leadership remains strong, with tech-heavy ETFs dominating multi-timeframe rankings and short-term measures showing broad strength across related funds. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 2d Chris Ciovacco TREND · CYCLE BULLISH Moderate
XLF $XLF recently reached a new all-time high, unlike the financial-sector weakness that preceded the S&P 500 peak in 2022. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 2d Chris Ciovacco TREND · CYCLE BULLISH Moderate
AI Artificial intelligence and technology stocks have recovered above the 38.2% retracement, with weekly relative strength looking better than January 2022. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 2d Chris Ciovacco TREND · CYCLE BULLISH Moderate
SPY The S&P 500 remains in an improving bullish trend above rising weekly and monthly clouds, although a pullback toward 7,100 or 6,900 could still find support. LEVELS · SUPPORT 7100 · SUPPORT 6900
Month 2d Chris Ciovacco TREND · CYCLE BULLISH Moderate
QQQ Nasdaq 100 relative strength versus the S&P 500 has broken out and remains above a rising 200-day moving average, unlike early 2022. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 2d Chris Ciovacco TREND · CYCLE BEARISH Weak
HYG $JNK below its 200-day moving average warrants realistic expectations, with concerns increasing if weakness becomes sustained and the trend slope rolls over. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 2d Chris Ciovacco TREND · CYCLE BEARISH Moderate
TLT The 10-year yield is attempting a breakout from its 2023 range, and a sustained move above nearby resistance would materially increase market concerns. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 2d Chris Ciovacco TREND · CYCLE LOWER Moderate
Positioning & Vol NYSE stock-market breadth remains weak at the September 25 close, warranting closer attention but not confirming that the secular bull market has ended. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 2d Chris Ciovacco TREND · CYCLE BULLISH Moderate
QQQ $QQQ has historically gained an average 27.3% one year later, with every cited historical case posting a higher level. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 7d Chris Ciovacco TREND · CYCLE BULLISH Moderate
XLK $XLK has historically gained an average 27.3% one year later, with every cited historical case posting a higher level. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 7d Chris Ciovacco TREND · CYCLE BULLISH Strong
AI AI offers an incredible productivity boost already within reach, supporting a constructive long-term outlook for adoption, investment, and the broader technology theme. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 7d Chris Ciovacco TREND · CYCLE BULLISH Strong
QQQ Nasdaq's weekly cloud is checking all five bullish boxes, contrasting with Q1 2022 when rates, inflation, and the Fed were headwinds for stocks. DIRECTION ONLY
Month 9d Chris Ciovacco TREND · CYCLE HIGHER Moderate
Growth Sustained 3% US growth over the long haul would materially improve the debt problem, making current debt levels difficult rather than insurmountable. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 9d Chris Ciovacco TREND · CYCLE BULLISH Strong
XLK Technology leads consumer staples on the weekly relative chart, with $XLK outperforming $XLP by 1.72% during Fed week. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 9d Chris Ciovacco TREND · CYCLE BULLISH Strong
SPY S&P 500 price remains above strongly bullish Bollinger Bands and secular volatility scores support a strong secular bull market rather than stagnation. DIRECTION ONLY
Year 9d Chris Ciovacco TREND · CYCLE BULLISH Strong
BKLN $BKLN shows a full-bore bullish trend, with price above rising moving averages, unlike the credit deterioration preceding the 2022 selloff. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 9d Chris Ciovacco TREND · CYCLE BULLISH Moderate
JNK $JNK retains a significantly stronger trend than early 2022 despite recent weakening, indicating credit conditions are not signaling an imminent debt crisis. DIRECTION ONLY
Week 9dWordcloud
StocksAverageMarketAboveBreadthTechArtificialDowIntelligenceJNKS&PStrengthYieldAIQAttemptingBitcoinBondsClusterConcernsDayFinancialsHigh YieldIndustrialJonesMovingNASDAQRelativeResistanceRisingStockSustainedTechnologyUnlikeWeaknessAll-TimeAttentionBearishBecomesBelow
Direction By Day
| 15 SEP | 16 SEP | 17 SEP | 18 SEP | 19 SEP | 20 SEP | 21 SEP | 22 SEP | 23 SEP | 24 SEP | 25 SEP | 26 SEP | 27 SEP | 28 SEP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| BKLN | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | · | · | · |
| BTC | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| DIA | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| Fed Policy | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Fiscal & Treasury | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | · | · | · |
| Growth | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | · | · | · |
| HYG | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ |
| JNK | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | · | · | · |
| Positioning & Vol | · | · | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | · | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ |
| QQQ | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| SPY | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ |
| TLT | · | · | · | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | · | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ |
| XLF | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| XLK | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
Sentiment Heatmap
| 15 SEP | 16 SEP | 17 SEP | 18 SEP | 19 SEP | 20 SEP | 21 SEP | 22 SEP | 23 SEP | 24 SEP | 25 SEP | 26 SEP | 27 SEP | 28 SEP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| BKLN | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | · | · | · |
| BTC | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| DIA | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| Fed Policy | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · |
| Fiscal & Treasury | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | · | · | · |
| Growth | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | · | · | · |
| HYG | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ |
| JNK | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | · | · | · |
| Positioning & Vol | · | · | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | · | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ |
| QQQ | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| SPY | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ |
| TLT | · | · | · | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | · | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ |
| XLF | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| XLK | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
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