Tariffs & Geopolitics

US threats to annihilate Iran are aimed at reassuring Saudi Arabia and deterring a strategic pivot toward China, raising geopolitical pressure.

Deglobalization pressure from tariffs, immigration restraint, two wars, and supply-chain constraints is unlikely to reverse anytime soon, potentially lasting several years.

NATO’s continuation is a condition of a permanent Greenland defense deal, extending geopolitical commitments rather than resolving them permanently.

High-stakes Trump-Xi diplomacy at the UNGA summit is set to keep geopolitical pressure elevated for markets this week.

A longer Iran war is expected to intensify economic pressure by extending food and energy price increases across the economy.

Escalation of the U.S.-Canada trade war could disrupt lumber supplies, with Canada accounting for 44% of U.S. wood imports last year.

China’s $1.2 trillion annual trade surplus could expose the limits of U.S. threats to cut off China’s oil, increasing geopolitical pressure.

Trump tariffs are portrayed as illegally imposed charges that raised consumer costs without creating jobs, while refund rights enriched politically connected interests.

US-Iran War-related market pain is likely to persist across US trading conditions and risk assets through at least year-end.

Tariffs, geopolitical tensions and reshoring are weakening globalization today, although businesses may return to offshore production in the next disinflationary cycle.

Trump's beef tariff relief failed to materially reach retail meat prices, with an American Farm Bureau survey showing only a 2% decline versus 25% pitched.

A resolution to the Iran war remains uncertain after the president rejected Iran's proposal, leaving the energy shock and geopolitical pressure unresolved.

China holds structural AI advantages in STEM expertise, capital and token costs, energy, and politics, increasing strategic pressure on US technology leadership.

De-dollarization has not materialized because global banking, collateral, and settlement systems remain dependent on the dominant dollar-based infrastructure and funding network.