10Y / TLT

Long-duration real returns near 3.25% offer an attractive 30-year opportunity, especially compared with stocks currently trading at all-time highs.

Long-term Treasuries reflect rising demand for safety as a fragile economy limits longer-term yields despite expected Federal Reserve rate hikes.

Treasury yields may pause their advance here, although they could still take another leg higher and eventually create competition risk for stocks.

Treasuries offer investors a safe alternative to equities, with bonds repaying full face value at maturity despite price fluctuations during the holding period.

A breakdown of the fragile China truce or an AI-enabled security failure would be bullish for bonds and push long-duration Treasury prices higher.

US Treasuries can be bought through dark offshore entities despite a choreographed public narrative, supporting demand for duration.

Long bonds could support strong equity returns if the 10-year Treasury yield reaches a 10-handle, despite 5% yields being unfavorable.

Long bonds should rally and yields should pull back if a 25-basis-point Fed hike is not accompanied by a hawkish press conference.

Long bonds have a strengthening bullish setup, with the case for a sustained bond rally increasingly coming together.

Long-end Treasury yields may soon subside as inflation concerns that have steepened the yield curve begin to fade.

Long-end Treasuries continue falling to new Quad 2 cycle lows, reinforcing a top macro short position in duration.

Long-term U.S. Treasury futures have fallen 93% versus gold since the euro launched on January 1, 1999, underscoring a long-running duration underperformance.

U.S. government bonds should be avoided, reflecting a strongly negative long-standing stance toward duration rather than a fresh call.

10-year Treasury yields could reach 6% by Nov. 5, pushing 30-year mortgage rates above 8% and creating a major voter issue.

Long bonds remain vulnerable as heavily bought contrarian positions keep losing money, though intervention after further declines could trigger a squeeze higher.

Japanese bond and currency pressures could persistently reduce demand from a reliable long-term buyer of US Treasuries, pressuring long-duration Treasury prices.

Long-term interest rates are rising rather than falling as elevated deficits and intensifying price pressures undermine the White House fiscal-restraint theory.

Long-duration Treasuries face downside after accelerating September activity data prompted a violent market reassessment toward a stronger economic outlook.

Long-bond yields are surging, with adverse bond-market developments and mounting political pressure likely to keep duration under pressure near term.

The 10-year yield is attempting a breakout from its 2023 range, and a sustained move above nearby resistance would materially increase market concerns.

Long-term Treasury yields look positioned to stretch toward the June 2007 high of 5.316%, where extreme negative sentiment could mark a short-term turning point.

The 10-year yield is approaching 5.2% above its 2023 high, and the prevailing trend remains higher despite 5% appearing to be resistance.

10-year Treasury yields are below modeled fair value of 6.04% and likely will rise unless policy intervention caps yields or the Fed hikes two to three times.

Long yields are at the bottom of a broadly diversified 60/20/20 model, lagging Bitcoin, commodities, and the recently improving Mag 7.

Treasury bonds face a chart-based path toward 7–8% interest rates, implying materially higher long-term yields from current levels.

Treasury bond bear market continues after a weak five-year auction, with the 10-year yield at 5.12% and 30-year yield near 5.40%.

Long-term Treasuries have delivered a negative total return since the start of 2015, marking more than a lost decade and an even worse inflation-adjusted outcome.

Long Treasury yields should remain higher as improved growth expectations lift yields, while a Fed hike would ultimately raise rather than lower risk premia.

Ten-year yields holding above 5% would keep duration under pressure, while a break below that level could spark Nasdaq relief.

The 10-year Treasury yield has surged above 4.9%, its highest level since 2023, indicating continued pressure on long-duration Treasury prices.

Ten-year Treasury yields could test 6% in the not-too-distant future as accelerating nominal GDP growth pulls underlying US interest rates higher.

Long-duration Treasuries face downside risk if bond vigilantes push yields higher in response to escalating government debt and continued fiscal bailouts.