$SHY

The 2-Year Note should become the nation’s interest-rate benchmark because it has consistently outperformed Federal Reserve policymakers as a signal.

The 2-year Treasury could rally sharply and push yields lower if inflation improves, oil declines, or the Fed stops after one additional hike.

Short US Treasuries between one and three years are favored within fixed income as near-term uncertainty and headline-driven rate volatility persist.

The two- and three-year Treasury area offers an attractive opportunity as pricing for at least one additional hike is expected to unwind.

The 2-year Treasury yield is moving lower as softer economic data reduces near-term rate-hike expectations and drives a bull-steepening normalization of the curve.

Short-term Treasury bonds relative to the S&P 500 are making a new all-time low, signaling investor confidence rather than defensive positioning.

Front-end yields are likely to decline as softer retail sales, inflation, and labor data lower market expectations for a September rate hike.

U.S. short-term interest rates are entering a new high-debt, high-interest-rate economy, ending the prior period of high debt and low rates.

Five-year Treasury yields surged after hotter-than-expected PMI data, with the weak auction requiring buyers to accept a 3.1-basis-point tail.

The entire Treasury yield curve will carry a 5% handle or higher next year, with the 2-year yield soon following the 5-year above 5%.

UST 2-year yields have broken out to new Quad 2 cycle highs, signaling continued pressure on short-duration Treasury prices.

Short-term rate expectations are being revised higher, rather than markets becoming nervous about holding long-term debt amid current Treasury-market moves.

Two-year Treasury yields are signaling higher lows and higher highs, indicating continued downside for short-duration Treasury prices amid the current macro regime.

Two-year yields are still rising, signaling the market expects the Fed is not finished raising rates over the next 6 to 12 months.

Short-term bond yields remain in an obvious bullish trend despite correcting from the upper end of their risk range.

The 2-year Treasury yield has reconverged with energy costs as markets increasingly price the risk of further Federal Reserve rate hikes in response to finished-fuel inflation.

Persistent elevated nominal growth could push short-end rates back into the mid-5% range, and perhaps somewhat higher, if current strength persists.

Two-year Treasury yields have risen 130 basis points and continue climbing since the US attack on Iran, driven by consequences of Trump’s actions.

Two-year Treasury yields should continue rising as markets increasingly price one or possibly two Federal Reserve rate hikes following the energy shock.

Private business investment relative to GDP points to rising corporate borrowing demand, allowing lenders to lift borrowing costs as productive investment expands.

Two-year Treasury yields are rising in the near term as markets price a greater risk that the Federal Reserve may pause or hike rates.

Short-term rates are likely to rise as Fed funds futures imply about two rate hikes over the coming year.

Short-term Treasury yields are repricing higher after Chair Warsh’s firm commitment to the inflation target, flattening the 2s-10s and 2s-30s curves.

Short-term rates should be 100–200-plus basis points higher than current levels based on every measure of the Taylor rule and economic conditions.

U.S. two-year Treasury positioning remains in a rails regime, signaling continued pressure on short-duration Treasury prices and higher front-end yields.

The 2-year nominal Treasury yield remains bearish in the volatility-adjusted momentum and probable-range models, preserving a negative near-term signal for short-duration Treasuries.

Short-term interest-rate conditions remain tight for interest-sensitive US cohorts, with households increasingly expecting rates to rise and small-business bankruptcies up 24% year-over-year.