S&P 500
$SPYCatch-Up
The near-term picture remains constructive: the S&P has cleared consolidation and key resistance, with strong but not yet overstretched momentum and volatility positioning helping support further upside. A brief pullback or Nasdaq-related wobble is still seen as possible, while the longer-horizon debate is sharper—policy support could sustain nominal equity gains, but a post-midterm drawdown risk and weaker performance versus gold remain live qualifications.
A daily catch-up of talking heads, in fifteen minutes.
Analyst Views on S&P 500
ES bulls need to defend the 7794 breakout, which shifted from resistance earlier this week into support after the advance.
$SPX making new all-time highs while AAII bulls remain at 35% is a constructive signal for further near-term upside.
The S&P 500's all-time highs are framed positively heading into Friday, supporting a constructive near-term backdrop for US equities.
The S&P has broken out of consolidation, with the near-term trajectory expected to remain higher despite a potential Nasdaq-related headwind.
SPX is being lifted by crushed volatility through persistent negative gamma into next week, with the 7,900 to 8,000 area in focus.
Stocks rise in dollar terms under more explicit yield curve control, although the anticipated gains would not translate into strength against gold.
The stock market is expected to move higher as continued upside earnings surprises are supported by a resilient US economy.
$SPY could set up for its next leg higher after two to three more pullback days, stabilizing near 760 and prior resistance.
Stocks in the EU, Canada, and the US are at all-time highs, while money supply is also at a record level and the trend remains upward.
S&P 500 retains a constructive secular bull-market trend, supported by price above upward-sloping 50-day, 150-day, and 200-day moving averages.
A secular bear market has a reasonably high probability of following the AI bubble's eventual peak and could take years or decades to recover from.
The market could decline 20% to 25% after the midterms into the first quarter of 2027 as political incentives to support prices diminish.
Risk asset markets face a difficult period as stronger economic activity, fading liquidity and prospective Federal Reserve tightening recreate conditions unfavorable for equities.
The S&P 500's spot-up, vol-up dynamic is unstable, can produce V-tops, and reflects a later stage of the bull market.
Wordcloud
Direction By Day
| 01 AUG | 02 AUG | 03 AUG | 04 AUG | 05 AUG | 06 AUG | 07 AUG | 08 AUG | 09 AUG | 10 AUG | 11 AUG | 12 AUG | 13 AUG | 14 AUG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Mancini | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
| Brent Kochuba | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
| Brian Shannon | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| Cem Karsan | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ |
| Chris Ciovacco | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · |
| Darius Dale | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| David Keller | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
| Ed Yardeni | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| Jason Shapiro | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| Joseph Wang | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | · |
| Luke Gromen | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ |
| Michael Howell | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ |
| Peter Reznicek | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
Sentiment Heatmap
| 01 AUG | 02 AUG | 03 AUG | 04 AUG | 05 AUG | 06 AUG | 07 AUG | 08 AUG | 09 AUG | 10 AUG | 11 AUG | 12 AUG | 13 AUG | 14 AUG | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adam Mancini | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
| Brent Kochuba | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
| Brian Shannon | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| Cem Karsan | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ |
| Chris Ciovacco | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | · | · |
| Darius Dale | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| David Keller | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |
| Ed Yardeni | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| Jason Shapiro | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ | ▲ |
| Joseph Wang | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ | · |
| Luke Gromen | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ | ▲ |
| Michael Howell | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▼ | ▼ | ▼ |
| Peter Reznicek | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | · | ▲ |