2Y / SHY

The 2-Year Note should become the nation’s interest-rate benchmark because it has consistently outperformed Federal Reserve policymakers as a signal.

The 2-year Treasury could rally sharply and push yields lower if inflation improves, oil declines, or the Fed stops after one additional hike.

The two- and three-year Treasury area offers an attractive opportunity as pricing for at least one additional hike is expected to unwind.

Short-term Treasury bonds relative to the S&P 500 are making a new all-time low, signaling investor confidence rather than defensive positioning.

U.S. short-term interest rates are entering a new high-debt, high-interest-rate economy, ending the prior period of high debt and low rates.

Five-year Treasury yields surged after hotter-than-expected PMI data, with the weak auction requiring buyers to accept a 3.1-basis-point tail.

UST 2-year yields have broken out to new Quad 2 cycle highs, signaling continued pressure on short-duration Treasury prices.

Short-term rate expectations are being revised higher, rather than markets becoming nervous about holding long-term debt amid current Treasury-market moves.

Two-year yields are still rising, signaling the market expects the Fed is not finished raising rates over the next 6 to 12 months.

Persistent elevated nominal growth could push short-end rates back into the mid-5% range, and perhaps somewhat higher, if current strength persists.

Two-year Treasury yields have risen 130 basis points and continue climbing since the US attack on Iran, driven by consequences of Trump’s actions.

Private business investment relative to GDP points to rising corporate borrowing demand, allowing lenders to lift borrowing costs as productive investment expands.

Short-term rates are likely to rise as Fed funds futures imply about two rate hikes over the coming year.

Short-term Treasury yields are repricing higher after Chair Warsh’s firm commitment to the inflation target, flattening the 2s-10s and 2s-30s curves.

The 2-year nominal Treasury yield remains bearish in the volatility-adjusted momentum and probable-range models, preserving a negative near-term signal for short-duration Treasuries.

Short-term interest-rate conditions remain tight for interest-sensitive US cohorts, with households increasingly expecting rates to rise and small-business bankruptcies up 24% year-over-year.