Headge Model
Load a market move, then see what followed across every asset class in a century of monthly data.
US Equity Market Falls 20.0%
Over 3 Months, Then The Next 6 MonthsWhat Followed
Over the next 6 months, observed median changes were US equities +22.9% (n = 8); gold +10.3% (n = 1); 10-year Treasury yields -29.5 bp (n = 8). Fewer than five observations for at least one asset; too little evidence to establish a typical pattern.
03 · Historical Outcomes
US Equity Market · Since 1926
Observed outcomes after matched episodes. Percentile bands describe this historical sample; they are not forecast confidence intervals.
FF Market ↗ · Compounded Monthly Mkt-RF + RF; Broad US Total Return, Not SPY
Outcome Atlas
Bonds
Commodities
Currencies
Digital Assets
Equities
Macro
Metals
Rates
Real Assets
Volatility
Historical Matches
Episodes are separated by at least 9 months so scenario and outcome windows do not overlap. Ordered by closeness to your inputs. Asset coverage can reduce the sample plotted above.
Coverage & Method
Long US equity and cash histories come from the Kenneth French research library. Yahoo supplies modern asset histories and FRED supplies economic series. Each remains separate, with no invented observations before inception.
Historical Analogues
The scenario is an observed move over a chosen window. Optional conditions are measured at its start. We match those inputs, then examine later observations. This establishes historical association, not causation.
Different Instruments, Different Units
Prices and adjusted ETF proxies use percentage changes. Yields use basis-point changes. Inflation and volatility use percentage or index-point changes. Continuous futures can contain roll effects and are not tradable total-return histories.
Research Limits
Macro data uses the latest revised vintage, not the releases available to traders at the time. Similarity scaling uses the selected historical sample. This is retrospective exploration, not an out-of-sample trading backtest or calibrated probability model.
| Series | History | Months | Measurement / Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1–3 Year TreasuriesSHY · Latest 81.89 · 2026-08 | 2002-07 To 2026-08 | 290 | Adjusted Close Change; Distribution-Adjusted ETF Proxy ↗ |
| 20+ Year TreasuriesTLT · Latest 82.52 · 2026-08 | 2002-07 To 2026-08 | 290 | Adjusted Close Change; Distribution-Adjusted ETF Proxy ↗ |
| 7–10 Year TreasuriesIEF · Latest 92.74 · 2026-08 | 2002-07 To 2026-08 | 290 | Adjusted Close Change; Distribution-Adjusted ETF Proxy ↗ |
| High Yield CreditHYG · Latest 79.81 · 2026-08 | 2007-04 To 2026-08 | 233 | Adjusted Close Change; Distribution-Adjusted ETF Proxy ↗ |
| Inflation-Linked BondsTIP · Latest 106.82 · 2026-08 | 2003-12 To 2026-08 | 273 | Adjusted Close Change; Distribution-Adjusted ETF Proxy ↗ |
| Investment Grade CreditLQD · Latest 106.21 · 2026-08 | 2002-07 To 2026-08 | 290 | Adjusted Close Change; Distribution-Adjusted ETF Proxy ↗ |
| Treasury BillsBIL · Latest 91.66 · 2026-08 | 2007-05 To 2026-08 | 232 | Adjusted Close Change; Distribution-Adjusted ETF Proxy ↗ |
| US Cash · Since 1926FF RF · Latest 2,545.86 · 2026-07 | 1926-07 To 2026-07 | 1201 | Compounded Monthly Risk-Free Return ↗ |
| AgricultureDBA · Latest 29.32 · 2026-08 | 2007-01 To 2026-08 | 236 | Adjusted Close Change; Distribution-Adjusted ETF Proxy ↗ |
| Broad CommoditiesDBC · Latest 31.3 · 2026-08 | 2006-02 To 2026-08 | 247 | Adjusted Close Change; Distribution-Adjusted ETF Proxy ↗ |
| Natural GasNG=F · Latest 2.93 · 2026-08 | 2000-08 To 2026-08 | 267 | Continuous Futures Close; Roll-Affected Price Change, Not Total Return ↗ |
| WTI OilCL=F · Latest 85.76 · 2026-08 | 2000-08 To 2026-08 | 267 | Continuous Futures Close; Roll-Affected Price Change, Not Total Return ↗ |
| EUR / USDEURUSD=X · Latest 1.16 · 2026-08 | 2003-12 To 2026-08 | 251 | Month-End Price Change; Excludes Income ↗ |
| US Dollar IndexDX-Y.NYB · Latest 99.43 · 2026-08 | 1985-01 To 2026-08 | 500 | Month-End Price Change; Excludes Income ↗ |
| USD / JPYJPY=X · Latest 153.57 · 2026-08 | 1996-09 To 2026-08 | 330 | Month-End Price Change; Excludes Income ↗ |
| BitcoinBTC-USD · Latest 78,548.63 · 2026-08 | 2014-09 To 2026-08 | 144 | Month-End Spot Price Change ↗ |
| Developed Ex-USEFA · Latest 107.45 · 2026-08 | 2001-08 To 2026-08 | 301 | Adjusted Close Change; Distribution-Adjusted ETF Proxy ↗ |
| ES FuturesES=F · Latest 7,699 · 2026-08 | 2000-09 To 2026-08 | 266 | Continuous Futures Close; Roll-Affected Price Change, Not Total Return ↗ |
| Emerging MarketsEEM · Latest 67.02 · 2026-08 | 2003-04 To 2026-08 | 281 | Adjusted Close Change; Distribution-Adjusted ETF Proxy ↗ |
| NQ FuturesNQ=F · Latest 29,513 · 2026-08 | 2000-09 To 2026-08 | 266 | Continuous Futures Close; Roll-Affected Price Change, Not Total Return ↗ |
| Nasdaq 100^NDX · Latest 29,456.97 · 2026-08 | 1985-10 To 2026-08 | 491 | Month-End Price Change; Excludes Income ↗ |
| S&P 500^GSPC · Latest 7,686.14 · 2026-08 | 1985-01 To 2026-08 | 500 | Month-End Price Change; Excludes Income ↗ |
| SPYSPY · Latest 767.05 · 2026-08 | 1993-01 To 2026-08 | 404 | Adjusted Close Change; Distribution-Adjusted ETF Proxy ↗ |
| US Equity Market · Since 1926FF Market · Latest 1,917,260.87 · 2026-07 | 1926-07 To 2026-07 | 1201 | Compounded Monthly Mkt-RF + RF; Broad US Total Return, Not SPY ↗ |
| US Small CapsIWM · Latest 293.93 · 2026-08 | 2000-05 To 2026-08 | 316 | Adjusted Close Change; Distribution-Adjusted ETF Proxy ↗ |
| Industrial ProductionINDPRO · Latest 102.99 · 2026-07 | 1919-01 To 2026-07 | 1291 | Monthly Published Series; Latest Revised Vintage ↗ |
| US CPICPIAUCNS · Latest 334.98 · 2026-08 | 1913-01 To 2026-08 | 1363 | Monthly Published Series; Latest Revised Vintage ↗ |
| US CPI InflationCPIAUCNS YoY · Latest 3.4% · 2026-08 | 1914-01 To 2026-08 | 1351 | Year-On-Year Change In Non-Seasonally Adjusted CPI; Revised Vintage ↗ |
| US UnemploymentUNRATE · Latest 4.1% · 2026-08 | 1948-01 To 2026-08 | 943 | Monthly Published Series; Latest Revised Vintage ↗ |
| CopperHG=F · Latest 6.59 · 2026-08 | 2000-08 To 2026-08 | 267 | Continuous Futures Close; Roll-Affected Price Change, Not Total Return ↗ |
| GoldGC=F · Latest 4,431.1 · 2026-08 | 2000-08 To 2026-08 | 267 | Continuous Futures Close; Roll-Affected Price Change, Not Total Return ↗ |
| SilverSI=F · Latest 66.22 · 2026-08 | 2000-08 To 2026-08 | 267 | Continuous Futures Close; Roll-Affected Price Change, Not Total Return ↗ |
| 10-Year Treasury YieldGS10 · Latest 4.68% · 2026-08 | 1953-04 To 2026-08 | 881 | Monthly Published Series; Latest Revised Vintage ↗ |
| 2-Year Treasury YieldGS2 · Latest 4.22% · 2026-08 | 1976-06 To 2026-08 | 603 | Monthly Published Series; Latest Revised Vintage ↗ |
| 30-Year Treasury YieldGS30 · Latest 5.22% · 2026-08 | 1977-02 To 2026-08 | 595 | Monthly Published Series; Latest Revised Vintage ↗ |
| Aaa Corporate YieldAAA · Latest 5.88% · 2026-08 | 1919-01 To 2026-08 | 1292 | Monthly Published Series; Latest Revised Vintage ↗ |
| Fed Funds RateFEDFUNDS · Latest 3.63% · 2026-08 | 1954-07 To 2026-08 | 866 | Monthly Published Series; Latest Revised Vintage ↗ |
| US Real EstateVNQ · Latest 96.44 · 2026-08 | 2004-09 To 2026-08 | 264 | Adjusted Close Change; Distribution-Adjusted ETF Proxy ↗ |
| MOVE · Bond Volatility^MOVE · Latest 75.32 · 2026-08 | 2002-11 To 2026-08 | 286 | Month-End Index Level; Change In Points ↗ |
| US Equity Realized VolatilityFF Market · Latest 13.02 · 2026-07 | 1927-06 To 2026-07 | 1190 | 12-Month Sample Standard Deviation × √12; Monthly Returns, Not VIX ↗ |
| VIX^VIX · Latest 14.92 · 2026-08 | 1990-01 To 2026-08 | 440 | Month-End Index Level; Change In Points ↗ |